Florida Early Vote update, 10/25/2016

10/25/2016 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 41.5% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.

44.1% of REP ballots, have been returned and 41.7% of DEM ballots have been returned.

10/25/16: REPs - 556,058, DEMs - 525,076 lead of 30,982 for REPs, 42.0% to 39.7%

10/24/16: REPs - 503,632, DEMs - 483,019 lead of 20,613 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.0%

10/23/16: REPs - 496,040, DEMs - 476,292 lead of 19,748 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.0%

10/22/16: REPs - 463,959, DEMs - 443,502 lead of 20,457 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.0%

10/21/16: REPs - 416,778, DEMs - 399,434 lead of 17,344 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.0%

For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):

10/25/16: REPs - 41,660, DEMs - 50,050, lead of 8,390 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting

10/24/16: REPs - 33,400, DEMs - 38,935, lead of 5,535 for DEMs

10/23/16: REPs - 31,163, DEMs - 36,362, lead of 5,199 for DEMs

10/22/16: REPs - 31,163, DEMs - 36,362, lead of 5,199 for DEMs

10/21/16: REPs - 28,710, DEMs - 33,635, lead of 4,925 for DEMs

[SpeedyInTexas]

In-Person early voting has started. DEMs will likely take the lead with in-person voting. The goal is to reduce their lead from 2012's margin.

2012 (ballots cast, not yet counted)

Absentee Ballot - REPs led by 79,000

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs led by 247,000

Combined Early voting - DEMs led by 168,000

Obama won Florida in 2012 by 74,000 votes

2016 (ballots cast, not yet counted)

Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 30,982

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 24,007

Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 6,975

[SpeedyInTexas]

Lets assume about 80% of absentee ballots are returned and assume REP lead by 3%, say 43% to 40% with the rest Independents/Other.

3,191,036 total absentee ballots mailed as of today

2,552,828 total returned (3,191,036 * 0.8)

1,097,716 - REP 43% (2,552,828 * 0.43)

1,021,131 - DEM 40% (2,552,828 * 0.40)

76,585 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS

Today’s margin is 2.3%. Some questioned my 3% target, but 3% is definitely possible.

[SpeedyInTexas]

ping

[Rumierules]

Do you believe that Abseentee ballots will comprise a greater percentage of the overall vote than in 2012? If so, significantly more?

[zr2hammer]

Thanks for the update! I have this website bookmarked and check it every morning. These last 2 weeks will be the death of me....especially with the piecemeal of voting updates.

[Ravi]

Thanks. I want to say first day of early voting in 2012 Dems had a massive lead much greater than today’s 24,000 lead. I am going by memory here though need confirmation.

[dp0622]

How about saying this is better or the same as 2012?

for us morons :)

[Ravi]

Yes i think 60:40 split. We will see.

[SpeedyInTexas]

That would be great. McDonald or Smith will likely show the numbers soon.

On NC, McDonald has been all over TV saying Iowa and Ohio look good for Trump and NC and Florida look good for Clinton.

However, DEMs are down in NC compared to 2012 and lost the state. I think McDonald is going to have to change NC to looking good for Trump. Waiting with joy for that moment.

[Ravi]

He is spinning himself.

[SpeedyInTexas]

No one is a moron, but we are all Deplorables!

Bottom line, I’m expecting REPs to have a lead in 2016 absentee ballots by a similar margin compared to 2012. Probably a lead around 80,000 +/- 5,000.

But, there are ALOT more absentee ballots this year than 2012. That could take away from DEM traditional lead in in-person voting.

I won’t be surprised that the DEM combined lead from absentee ballots and in-person early voting is LESS than 2012.

Definitely nothing negative from Florida numbers at this point, and potentially a positive position heading into election day.

[mrsmith]

"Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn · 36m36 minutes ago  Manhattan, NY We have 189 respondents from our two NC polls who have already voted early, per state data. Clinton leads among them 57-36. Johnson 3. "

FWIW, sounds like a low Dem early turnout to me.

I'm still unable to wrap my head around the early voting numbers, maybe soon.

[usafa92]

The wildcard this year is that we don’t know how many D votes are for Trump. While the margins are smaller than 2012, a very plausible explanation for this could be D support for Trump. Romney received 9% of D votes in Florida on 2012. If Trump is even at 12%-15% of D votes, it makes a difference.

[mrs9x]

I would not say that North Carolina looks good for Cankles. The African-American vote is not showing up.

[JamesP81]

Does FL list absentee ballots requested by party, or just returned?

[dp0622]

Thanks man!

[SpeedyInTexas]

DEMs lead in NC early voting. So that shouldn’t be a surprise for Nate Cohn. But, their margin is LESS than 2012 and they lost they state that year!

[SpeedyInTexas]

By party for requests and for returned.

[mrs9x]

Exactly. Dems lead in early voting in 2012, and still lost the state by 3% to Romney. Dems are not turning out in North Carolina like in 2012.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Yes, decreased AA turnout so far in NC and Ohio.

AA turnout in Florida for absentee is approximately equal to 2012. I’m expecting decreased turnout for in-person early voting. Waiting for those numbers to come out.