Lets assume about 80% of absentee ballots are returned and assume REP lead by 3%, say 43% to 40% with the rest Independents/Other.
3,191,036 total absentee ballots mailed as of today
2,552,828 total returned (3,191,036 * 0.8)
1,097,716 - REP 43% (2,552,828 * 0.43)
1,021,131 - DEM 40% (2,552,828 * 0.40)
76,585 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS
Today’s margin is 2.3%. Some questioned my 3% target, but 3% is definitely possible.
ping
Do you believe that Abseentee ballots will comprise a greater percentage of the overall vote than in 2012? If so, significantly more?
Thanks. I want to say first day of early voting in 2012 Dems had a massive lead much greater than today’s 24,000 lead. I am going by memory here though need confirmation.
How about saying this is better or the same as 2012?
for us morons :)