Another huge discrepancy ABC has Clinton +8 with Independents, but IBD has Trump +16 with Ind. That's a 24 point difference #riggedpolls"
https://twitter.com/socalmike_SD/status/790283437357735936
Posted on 10/23/2016 2:06:35 PM PDT by rb22982
In 2012, the polls coming out were relatively tight. I pulled in the last week and change from RCP for 2012 and here is what I show.
2012 Poll Margin / Obama Lead
Politico/GWU/Battleground 0%
IBD/TIPP 1%
Rasmussen Reports -1%
CNN/Opinion Research 0%
Gallup -1%
ABC News/Wash Post 3%
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 0%
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl -1%
Pew Research -3%
FOX News 0%
Standard Deviation 1.5%
Now, compare to the same time period today
2016 Poll Margin / Clinton Lead
IBD/TIPP Tracking -2%
Rasmussen Reports -2%
PPD -1%
LA Times 0%
Economist/YouGov 4%
Reuters/Ipsos 4%
ABC News/Wash Post 4%
FOX News 6%
NBC News/SM 6%
Quinnipiac 7%
Bloomberg 9%
CBS News 9%
Boston Globe 10%
NBC News/WSJ 11%
ABC News Tracking 12%
Monmouth 12%
Std Deviation 4.9%
Why has the standard deviation of these polls more than tripled? In 2012, with this group there only a 4 point variance at the most favorable to Romney and the most favorable to Obama. In 2016, there is a 14 point variance!! Here is my speculation
1) Fewer and fewer people are answering the phone or even have a landline. Cell phone lists aren't random and the area code doesn't tell you where they are living.
2) Polling on the internet is, to some degree, the wild wild west. The reason phone worked is because everyone had a landline and you could randomly dial and know where they were located. Email database
3) Roughly 90% of RV will tell posters they plan to vote but only 60-65% actually vote. Deciding who is voting is an art
4) People will lie about who they are voting. I suspect at least a few Trump supporters are doing this.
5) Looking at the list of polls above, it's painfully obvious the most anti-Trump polls are all MSM polls.
One way or the other, a lot of pollsters are going to have egg on their faces in a couple of weeks
I think it is closer than what the MSM believe. There are so many polls it makes you dizzy. All of us remember the unskewed polling fiasco back in 2012. We don’t want to repeat it again this year.
Sadly, I think Trump might win the popular vote, but I don’t think he has a path electorally.
Another huge discrepancy ABC has Clinton +8 with Independents, but IBD has Trump +16 with Ind. That's a 24 point difference #riggedpolls"
https://twitter.com/socalmike_SD/status/790283437357735936
I think Trump wins.
It’s possible - but the state polls have just as much - or higher - MOE and STD DEV than the national polls do - or at least they should.
You’re right. Some here are fools believing in media driven polling .
ping
“Sadly, I think Trump might win the popular vote, but I don’t think he has a path electorally.”
I think he’s more likely to win the Electoral College than the popular vote. The Democrats have won the popular vote in 4/5 of the last elections. She’ll win the states with the high populations on the East and West coasts.
My gut tells me it is not a close race.
I may be wrong, but I feel a Trump landslide is possible, and the MSM is just trying to avoid even the hint of that conclusion.
“Deciding who is voting is an art “
Lot of games being played with “likely voter” profiles.
Early returns will clear that up a lot in the next few days.
I think the race is “fluid” at this point and could go either way. Lot of people wanting to vote against Hillary but Trump can’t grab them with the media onslaught against him. I think they’ll come around though.
The year’s electorate is more deviant than even standard.
Pat Caddell has called into question the methodologies of these polls. He has said people will be shocked come Election night
And you are wrong
Get Out The Vote
...this time next week the polls matter some what...the polls for the last month are just a political tool....
That’s my best guess too - my worse fear though is its cover for massive fraud.
He has a very narrow path to an electoral win. He basically has to run the table with the swing states of Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. Hard to do but certainly not impossible.
She’ll win the states with the high populations on the East and West coasts.
And Trump will take a lot of states by larger margins.
At some point this all becomes indeterminate - you can’t decide what mix of independent variables you will have in polls - like numbers of unaffiliated voters, who have an effect on the outcome - and then use your poll to describe the outcome in dependent variables - like how unaffiliated voters are going to vote - political shills, not skilled statisticians, are producing this garbage....
The only poll that counts is on Nov 8, the rest are just ‘Rat turds ...
Deviants shouldn’t even be voting.
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