Posted on 10/23/2016 4:05:13 AM PDT by rb22982
With 16 days to go until November 8, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points — 43% to 41% — in a four-way race, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.
Unrounded, Trump leads 42.6% to 40.8% — a 1.8-point edge — with Johnson at 7.2% and Stein at 3.3%.
Trump also holds a nearly one-point lead in a two-way matchup — 43.2% to 42.3%.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
That is just strange. They reweighted the sample from five days ago or from 2012 ?
Trump ran a hard hitting ad last night during the Cubs game in western VA. Must have cost big bucks - around the 4th inning.
It was an indictment of Clinton over Benghazi. Pat Smith from the RNC Convention saying Clinton lied to the Benghazi families about the video, then Clinton denied it later.
Drove across VA from Roanoke to D.C. last week through Charlottesville. Saw dozens of large Trump signs, but only a couple of small Clinton ones. But northern VA will be a hard nut to crack. That’s why it surprised me that Trump would spend the big bucks here (MLB playoff game) if it was totally out of reach.
Some post-election debate focused on the alleged flaws in the pre-election polls, almost all of which overstated Clinton's lead over Dole, some by a substantial margin. For example, a CBS/New York Times poll overstated Clinton's lead by 10 points despite having an error margin of 2.4%. The odds against this sort of error occurring were 15,000:1.[27] A less extreme example was a Pew poll that overstated Clinton's lead by 5 points, the chances of this happening were 10:1 against.[27] Gerald Wasserman, having examined eight pre-election polls, argued that pure chance would produce such a skewed result in favor of Clinton only once in 4,900 elections.[28] However, because Clinton won the election by a comfortable margin,[29] there was no major reaction towards the inaccuracy of the polls.[29] The polls were also less inaccurate than the overwhelming majority of those taken in 1948,[29] which predicted that losing candidate Thomas Dewey would beat President Harry Truman by a comfortable margin,[29] and in 1980, which predicted that Reagan would win without a landslide victory.[29]"
Trump thinks VA is winnable.
He wants a clean sweep of the South and he’ll likely get it.
Hillary has to stay out of sight because can’t afford another public face plant with the ground this late in the game.
Within the last week we have been in CT, NY, NJ, DE, and MD. These are blue states last time I checked. We saw two HRC signs and one or two bumper stickers. There have been many (hundred or so ) Trump signs. We sat down with a self defining Liberal Democrat all my life who is very vocal about voting for Trump. He sees the same things and asks his friends who are still voting for Hillary if they are drinking the cool aid! At the table of eleven only four are voting Hillary and the rest Trump. All of us are from deep blue. Near 2:1.
Hillary’s lead is within MOE. Basically, if she’s not outside of it, she will likely lose.
Don’t look for the MSM to include the disclaimer in its broadcast and print stories.
Up two points nationwide among likely voters is good, and up among independents by thirteen points is excellent. However, Trump still trails by 0% to 100% among fictional voters, dead voters, out of state voters bused from polling place to polling place, and illegal alien voters. We need to get every Trump voter to the polls on Election Day to overcome the fraud planned by America’s domestic enemies in the Democrat party. It’s not over until it’s over, and we cannot afford to get complacent.
I sure hope this is right. It’s one of two or three that have him up....the rest have the beast waaayyyy up
They know the machines are rigged and ready to go.
Perot in 92 and 96 as well. I see Johnson’s #s coming down to 3-5% and Stein’s in the 2-3% range when all is said and down. Both candidates unfavorable ratings are just too negative IMO. I know a lot more people voting Johnson this time than last time as a protest vote in NC and see as many Johnson signs as Trump here (zero clinton signs or bumper stickers in Charlotte in my driving around at least.)
4 polls have Trump up currently (LA Times - albeit rounds to tied, Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP, and PPD). There are several polls that show Clinton +4 which show a more normal +D turnout of 6-8% (Obama got +6 in 2012). The ones that have Clinton winning 9-12% (there are 3) have +10 to +18% D turnout -that isn’t going to happen. And Hillary’s campaign stops and the rest of the top brass are all in key BG states for Trump to win, indicating they don’t believe its that large of a lead either.
This faux victory creation by the MSM will be Hitlery’s final days of celebration. Things will go down hill from here very fast as the pollsters need to stop cooking the books for Hitlery unless they want to walk down the same suicide path as the MSM.
Did you see Trump’s huge audience in Cleveland last evening? Right Side is the only one to show you the crowds. I bet those crowds keep getting bigger and bigger as we near Nov. 8. His venues better be in colosseums from here on out. People are scrambling to jump on the Trump Train. All aboard!!
National polls is one arena and state polls where the election will be won or lost
is another. Not sure which states that will be but I bet the campaigns are watching the
ones they feel are the deciders. JMO
The talking heads of the Demoncrap Barfy on TV are getting more and more shrill and strident. Soon they will go off their rockers completely.Today they were shreiking that Trump was a fascist , when in fact its the Clinton campaign which has conducted itself as fascists.
(Clinton’s socialism is indeed fascist, here is the analysis: http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/barack_obama_the_quintessentia_1.html )
Trump is gaining and they can’t do a thing to stop him on the stump. They are getting shriller and shriller.Soon they will be saying if Trump is elected they are going to jump off of high buildings. I say they should go for it.
Agreed fai Mao, if Clinton has it in the bag why is there so much cqaterwauling and shrill propaganda coming from the lefty MSM? Buahahahahah. Their internals show Trump ahead by at least 5 points. IMHO Trump is now over 50% nationally.Thats why the Dens are piling on the negative campaigning, which never works against Trump, who proved that when Jeb Bush spent millions without effect in the primary.
this poll is reweighting their sample of R33/D33/I34 to R29/D37/I34 (7% R-D rounded) to get their Trump +1.8%. If you use their original mix, Trump is up 7% - T45.7%...
That reweighing is an interesting little factoid. MSM doesn’t want to show a Trump breakout in the polling as it would ruin their current narrative.
The Hillary campaign is NOT acting like she has won. They are not expanding the battleground, but instead are concentrating on Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, North Carolina, etc., as if it were a razor-thin race.
Johnson will never get 7%. Look for a lot of that vote to break for Trump.
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