The 4 tracking polls have him tied or ahead slightly (LA Times, IBD/TIPP, Rasmussen, PPD). All of the one off polls - mostly major media polls - show Clinton ahead 4-12%. The 3 polls that show Trump with a huge deficit appeared to massively oversample Democrats - the 2008 and 2012 elections were roughly +5D vs R as a % of those voting - the ones with Trump losing by 10-12% are more than double that - extremely unlikely. My best guess is the race is somewhere between Trump +3 and Clinton +4; ie a dead head.
Thank you so much! You put it in a nutshell so that even a dope like me can understand. I’m going to share this with my husband who is smarter but equally confused.