FOX 13/Opinion Savvy Florida Clinton +4 (BS Alert)

opinionsavvy.com ^ | 10/21/2016 | FOX 13/Opinion Savvy

[ThinkingBuddha]

Looking at the polling methodology: D +3.2 Female +11.8

I looked up the 2010 census for Florida, and it was male 9,189,355 Female 9,611,955. This equates to F +2.2.

I wan not able to find any information on the Male/female turnout in 2012, but +11.2 female turnout doesn't look passible to me.

[gasport]

In SWFL, on parting, some folks wave and say “MAGA”.

[Road Warrior ‘04]

Polls driving the election rather than the election driving polls. I'm calling a loud and hardy BULLSH*T on this poll.

Must have been Hillsborough County (Tampa) and they polled all democRATS!

[cgbg]

Just a little meme help here—that is Poll Malpractice.

Thanks. :-)

[monkeyshine]

So assuming Hillary leads among all women by 2:1, oversampling women by 11.9% will deliver a 4.1% point over-representation in the poll - more than her lead in the poll. And I am not sure she is leading by 2:1 among women. Correcting just for that imbalance, Trump would be ahead by a very slim margin in that poll.

[Pollster1]

The Fox post-debate polls were among the most pro-Clinton online. That network is overwhelmingly #NeverTrump. I get the feeling that however the voting turns out in 17 days, and however the vote count turns out (an entirely different issue from the actual voting), the world after Election Day will be very different for both sides in America.

This election will be the last straw for many, including the viewers Fox used to have.

[WHBates]

I don't know about the polls but, in terms of advertising spending, the Democrats at all levels are spending tons of cash, at least in the Tampa market anyway.

I live about 70 miles north of Tampa and it has to be a 10 to 1 ratio. Murphy is outspending Rubio probably 4 to 1 by himself. Clinton is an order of magnitude more. I hope it's a waste of money for both.

[Caipirabob]

I’m in the same boat, I see some folks supporting Clinton but most are with trump because the majority believe Clinton is an outright criminal and they are literally afraid of her.

[Caipirabob]

Great report! So glad to hear Broward looks strong for Trump. Given the Latino population and the horrific propaganda being pushed by Univision and similar channels I have been worried outside of immediate family and friends in the community. Most Latinos who are kin or friends cannot reconcile a demonrat vote with their Christian faith.

[God luvs America]

according to this the spread in registered voters is +8 women

http://www.floridavoterfile.com/statistics/florida.htm

[Destroyer Sailor]

Why be afraid. This election is just part of a long series of battles that have been fought to preserve this Republic. Some battles have been lost and some have been won. When we lose we regroup and struggle on. When we win we advance and move on to the next battle. No one really knows the outcome until it really happens . Solider On!

[bort]

This poll, like the other polls, is weighted based on PREDICTIED turnout. This polling company is predicting that blacks will make up 14% of Florida turnout , which was the 2012 turnout. By contrast, there are strong signs in Florida early voting that black turnout is way down. According to Election Smith, blacks as of yesterday had cast 5% of early vote by mail. This number will increase but blacks will not make up 14% of Florida voters this year.