I don’t think those women, most of them anyway, are “coming forward.” I think they are mostly being dragged and pushed forward, perhaps with threats and financial inducements.
Dems are deeply concerned that the faithful may not turn out or that conservative fence sitters and anti-Trumpers will hold their nose and start supporting Trump. And to keep the Trump faithful from becoming disheartened, many in the conservative media will claim the polls are outright rigged or find the poll or two that shows a better race for Trump.
I heard that and remember thinking, “How in the hell can you ‘tighten’ when most polls hardly show her with an advantage?”
I usually just pass most of the daily poll threads. Most of the polls are weighted in favor of certain candidates.
In the final stretch, the polsters will want to be more accurate so they can use that accuracy pitch to sell their services for the next election.
it will be a real “tell” if/when some of these crooked manipulative pollsters suddenly start turning toward a Trump victory in order to salvage some credibility for future business.
Polling is a business. People who would do far more despicable things would think not thing of faking up some numbers in an Excel spreadsheet and calling “poll results”.
Rush addressed this a month or so ago, pointing out that the mid-campaign polling was mostly of the “lies, damned lies, and statistics” variety intended to shape the message that “Trump=loser Hillary=winner”. He said that, as we got closer and closer to the election, the polls would gradually shift to more closely align with reality, because at the end of the day the polling organizations live and die by their reputation for being right.
There’s not much question on the ground that Trump is stomping Hillary as far as support goes, so as we pass through these final weeks, the polls are going to have to start reflecting that support or no one will ever believe the pollsters ever again.
Since a lot of the pollsters are closet leftists, they’ll probably drag their feet as much as possible, and try to keep shaping the narrative of Trump trailing Hillary right up to the final few days in hopes of convincing Trump supporters to “surrender now, Dorothy”, but in the end they’re going to have to show the Trump lead in all its glory or they’re going to look incompetent after the election.
Even Natie Silver knows the polls we see are fake and built on fake turnout models”
Huh? He does? Can you point us to a link or something on that?
This begs the question: “Why would a Clinton spokesperson say the polls would “tighten” let alone say “the polls [would] tighten significantly?”
So all the Polls up to this point are ENGINEERED ADVERTISING for Hillary, which makes them All an ILLEGAL IN KIND CONTRIBUTION to Hillary’s campaign.
Where is the FEC,FBI,CONgress....???
I don’t agree that the polls are going to change to reflect reality before the election this time around.
They are so in the tank for Hillary they will march lockstep with her right until the results are in, and maybe even after, even if they ‘die’ in the process.
But, I guess the expense of getting a random sample is prohibitive compared to using the models. So, the pollsters try to predict what the turnout will be. Even if we give them the benefit of the doubt that they are trying to be objective, there really is no way they can predict with any accuracy what the voter participation and party affiliation will look like. That is the real wild card in virtually every poll that is not truly random.
The fake polls have given their best shot to sway voters.
Reality is about to set in real soon for these SOROS paid for fake polls.
The polls will turn in a last ditch effort to suck every last dime they can from candidates.
Nobody spends on a won race. Lying and saying it’s close will make both sides dump cash on ads.
That used to be the model anyway. Trump has turned it on its head.
HRC still buys into the system. As her “lead” drops, she’ll drop a shit-ton of cash on ads.
Clinton and the MSM have a difficult balancing act. How to fix the polls so that Trump voters get discouraged and stay home while at the same time not making Clinton voters complacent and stay home?
The answer is to show Clinton way ahead in the weeks before the election and then “tighten” the polls so that Clinton is still ahead but not too far ahead right before the election.
Off course, there's a risk here that if they show Trump as level or ahead, it would merely further enthuse his base, or persuade some floaters to go with the winner. We'll see, but the polls will tighten a lot.
video: BUSTED! Hillary Superpac PAYING OFF NBC WSJ Clinton FAKE +11 Point Poll lead
First the polls will tighten significantly, as all these bogus polling outfits decide to make them more realistic, so they aren't flagrantly wrong.
And second, the Monster Vote comes in and Trump way outperforms even the tigher corrected fake polls on election day. And, presumably, wins. That's Your hypothesis (fueled by Gateway Pundit analysis, as laid out in your posting) in a nutshell. You've posted on it before.
My hypothesis is much simpler: the polls are pretty accurate when averaged, Trump is behind, and if he's still several points behind on election day, he will lose.
Further: because Nate's a smart guy and polls are mostly accurate when averaged: Nate will correctly call both the result and also correctly call all 51 (States + D.C.) races that contribute electoral votes.
In other words in my opinion there is no Monster Vote
.
We've got a simple baseline to test against:
Clinton is six points over Trump in the RCP average of 4-way race polls. Clinton 45.2%, Trump 39.2%
She's ahead a similar amount in the 2-way polls: 48.5% to 42%, a 6.5% Hillary advantage.
That particular number, 6%, is interesting to me. McCain lost by about 7.2% of the popular vote in his race against Obama in 2008. Romney did a little bit better in 2012, losing by 3.9%.
I've been thinking for a while now that Trump's likely outcome is similar to the last two elections, because when you cut through everything said and done: It is what it is
To back this up I will offer a prediction based on this theory, Trump will lose by about the average of McCain and Romney's loss, or 5.5% (pretty close to where he is today). So, only a little tightening will be seen.
The sad truth is that the only Presidential race the GOP has won even a plurality of popular votes in since 1992 was W's re-election, when the USA was at War and Bush was the incumbent.
Demographics are relentlessly against the GOP, it's a browner, more liberal America than even in 1992, a quarter century ago. And even with that, the best predictor of future performance, in elections, is past performance.
It is what it is.
See you on election night, sport!