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Economist/YouGov Poll (10/15-10/18): Clinton-42; Trump-38; Johnson-6; Stein-1 (Trump narrows gap)
YouGov ^ | 10/19/16 | YouGov

Posted on 10/19/2016 10:39:40 AM PDT by Ravi

D+18 Sample. 42% Dems, 24% GOP, 33.5% Indies.

Trump +5 with independents.

10% of GOP voters "not sure" how they'll vote (they're sure, they just don't want to say)

(Excerpt) Read more at today.yougov.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: clinton; poll; trump
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To: NohSpinZone

“A D+18 sample and this is all she can muster? Am I misguided in my exuberance here?”

No, this spells a Trump Victory. D+18 is a complete joke.


21 posted on 10/19/2016 11:00:37 AM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: JamesP81

Go into the bowels of the report. Page 11 of 223 in the PDF. Tucked away of course.


22 posted on 10/19/2016 11:01:42 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: rb22982

I don’t see D+18. According to the summary, it’s D+9 with 38% as independents.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dcylbatepw/econToplines.pdf


23 posted on 10/19/2016 11:03:50 AM PDT by NohSpinZone (First thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers)
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To: All

1032 LV; 434 Dems; 346 Indies; 252 GOP voters.


24 posted on 10/19/2016 11:04:00 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: rb22982

Go to the link.
scroll down to demographic breakdown.
go to question #5, Presidential intention to vote.
There you will see the intentions by party ID and the absolute numbers of Dems, Reps and Inds.


25 posted on 10/19/2016 11:06:04 AM PDT by SteveO87
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To: JamesP81

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3eyveosiyg/econTabReport.pdf

Page 11 has the presidential election poll. 434 D, 346 I, 252 R (1032 total)


26 posted on 10/19/2016 11:06:49 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: JamesP81

In the pdf link, they list party affiliation raw numbers as 434/346/252 (D/R/I). That works out to (42.05%/33.53%/24.42%). Not quite 18% more D than R, but still way oversampling democrats.

This is truly a stealth poll that the media is using to suppress Trump supporters.

Ignore the polls and vote!


27 posted on 10/19/2016 11:07:37 AM PDT by mywholebodyisaweapon
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To: DarthVader
Dems/GOP/Indy real numbers are 31/34/35 so the margin of error in this poll is 25-35%.

Where did these real numbers come from? And do they represent party registration or a prediction of who will vote this cycle?

28 posted on 10/19/2016 11:09:36 AM PDT by AndyTheBear
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To: Cboldt
Page 11 has the presidential election poll. 434 D, 346 I, 252 R (1032 total)

That would be only D+8.6, albeit low independence (with Independence favoring Trump more, so additional skewed to Clinton):

D = 434.0 / 1032.0
R = 346.0 / 1032.0
I = 252.0/ 1032.0

D = 42.1%
R = 33.5%
I = 24.4%

29 posted on 10/19/2016 11:17:30 AM PDT by AndyTheBear
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To: AndyTheBear

You swapped the R & I “N” values ...


30 posted on 10/19/2016 11:22:11 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: AndyTheBear

You swapped the R and the I...


31 posted on 10/19/2016 11:24:05 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: mywholebodyisaweapon

And considerably undersampling independents.


32 posted on 10/19/2016 11:24:06 AM PDT by JamesP81
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To: Ravi
D+18?

Can we spell d-e-s-p-e-r-a-t-i-o-n, boys and girls?

33 posted on 10/19/2016 11:24:38 AM PDT by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
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To: mywholebodyisaweapon

Also check out the conservative/moderate/liberal split. 384 moderates, 328 liberals and 320 conservatives. That has never been the ratio for any real recent election.


34 posted on 10/19/2016 11:25:54 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

If I remember correctly. YouGov was off about 8% on Brexit.

Sounds like it may be worse here.


35 posted on 10/19/2016 11:26:25 AM PDT by bereanway
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To: Ravi

Not only is the sampling completely out of whack, there are 13% of respondents are not given to anyone????


36 posted on 10/19/2016 11:26:37 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Ravi

Based on the headline, everyone is in the negative.


37 posted on 10/19/2016 11:28:48 AM PDT by Cobra64 (Common sense isn't common any more.)
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To: bereanway

Yes they were. They had remain to win 51 to 49. Leave won 52 to 48. 6 point whiff.


38 posted on 10/19/2016 11:29:25 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: AndyTheBear

That is the national average according to Gallup and that is the normalization that must be applied to the data. Oversampling from any group (data set) introduces error that compounds. Gallup had the distribution in Jan of this year at 29% Dem 26% GOP 45% Indy which has changed with the primary. Trump brought lots of new voters in the GOP which upped their numbers. Applying these 2012 turnout models is horseshit.


39 posted on 10/19/2016 11:31:12 AM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: Cobra64

:O


40 posted on 10/19/2016 11:31:48 AM PDT by Ravi
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