Posted on 10/15/2016 5:56:49 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 13.8% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.
10/15/16: REPs - 169,862, DEMs - 163,598 lead of 6,264 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.3%
10/14/16: REPs - 130,758, DEMs - 124,773 lead of 5,985 for REPs, 42.0% to 40.1%
10/13/16: REPs - 83,646, DEMs - 77,817 lead of 5,829 for REPs, 42.4% to 39.5%
10/12/16: REPs - 43,358, DEMs - 40,049 lead of 3,303 for REPs, 42.6% to 39.4%
10/11/16: REPs - 21,016, DEMs - 18,419 lead of 2,597 for REPs, 43.4% to 38.1%
10/10/16: REPs - 14,058, DEMs - 11,054 lead of 3,004 for REPs, 45.4% to 35.7%
10/09/16: REPs - 13,338, DEMs - 9,659, lead of 3,679 for REPs, 46.9% to 33.9%
10/07/16: REPs - 5,085, DEMs - 3,490, lead of 1,595 for REPs
10/06/16: REPs - 4,163, DEMs - 2,738, lead of 1,425 for REPs
For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):
10/15/16: REPs - 16,643, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,430 for DEMs
10/14/16: REPs - 12,937, DEMs - 15,764, lead of 2,827 for DEMs
10/13/16: REPs - 9,033, DEMs - 10,964, lead of 1,931 for DEMs
10/12/16: REPs - 3,778, DEMs - 4,403, lead of 625 for DEMs
10/11/16: REPs - 405, DEMs - 341, lead of 64 for REPs
So far in 2016, 14.28% of REP ballots have been returned and 14.27% of DEM ballots have been returned. The gap in returned ballots is not showing up so far. Hopefully will show up as more ballots are returned.
So changing my prediction for 2016. I'm predicting 78% of REP absentee ballots are returned and accepted and 76% of DEM absentee ballots are returned and accepted. Based on those assumptions, I'm predicting REP lead in returned and accepted absentee ballots by 58,559. Prediction will be updated daily.
Early tie in returned might just be the Dem nursing home vote.
Florida is so pivotal. Without it, we have to run the table in the Rust Belt.
So, is this running behind 2012 levels then for Republicans?
Rs have appeared to fallen behind 2012 goal of 79,000 gap in requests to 48,000.
Now, all eyes on RETURNS (which, ultimately is all that counts)
Slightly behind 2012 in absentee ballots. This year is a bit tricky to look at in Florida. The absentee ballot procedure has changed from previous elections. Absentee ballots are now automatically mailed out to people who voted in previous elections by absentee ballot - without having to request one.
Plus it looks like some people who voted during in-person early voting or on election day in previous elections are now voting by absentee ballot. “Experts” are predicting that 55% of Florida’s electorate will vote before election day. So the early vote may look more like the general state vote than the early vote in previous elections.
Officially in Florida, there aren’t absentee ballots anymore. They are called Vote-by-Mail.
Like this entire election cycle, alot of uncertainty.
But we can’t use 2014 ecause possible Ds (and Rs) were up more in 2012.
Hot off the press (https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/14/late-night-numbers-from-florida-older-whites-dominating-early-vote-by-mail-but-democrats-holding-their-own/):
“Of the more-than 310k vote-by-mail ballots received (not yet tallied) by Florida’s 67 SOEs, ElectionSmith, Inc. has tallied voter file information about 99.7% of those who have already voted in the presidential election. By far–over 82% — of the VBM received have been cast by white voters. Another 7% have been cast by blacks, 6% by Hispanics, and the balance other racial/ethnic groups.”
African-Americans were 13% of Florida’s electorate in 2008 and 2012 vs 11% for 2004. In early vote, it is only 7%. If it stays at closer to 11% with Obama off the ballot in 2016, DEMS lose about 160,000 votes. Could easily flip the state to Trump.
VBM = Vote-by-Mail
If anyone wants to check on their own (or other’s) registration in Florida, you can visit the link below. It is NOT the official site, but is from public records.
There are also links there for searching COLORADO, CONNECTICUT, DELAWARE, MICHIGAN, OHIO, OKLAHOMA, RHODE ISLAND.
How do they know the demographics other than party affiliation?
So as of today, Rs would lead absentees by 63,000, gain 160,000 in race%, net gain 146,000
I voted or thought i did mail in for 2012. Later i received a letter that my signature didnt match and my vote was voided. Hmmm one less vote for Romney. This year my wife and I will be voted in person so minus 2 off the vbm tally
In Florida, if the signature is missing, I think the voter gets a chance to “remedy” the error.
However, if the signature doesn’t match, the vote is disqualified without the voter having any “remedy”.
The DEMs are filing a lawsuit about this, I believe.
Voter registration form must ask for race.
This election is about turnout. Who the people want for President doesn’t matter. Who shows up on election day matters.
There is NO enthusiasm for Hillary from the African-American community. Those who vote for her, do so because she has a D in front of her name.
I’m positive the AA turnout goes does nationwide and in Florida. Question is does it go from 13% to 12.5 or 12 or all the way down to 11% in Florida? That is the big question.
In 2012, a higher percentage of AA voted than Whites. Unprecedented and won’t be repeated in 2016.
Gotcha. Then aside from the female/male split, this is great news.
Article said AA down from 11 to 7.
The key here is apparently not in the sheer numbers, where Rs are now behind pace, but in the very large surge in white voters and the significant decline in young voters (200%?) and black voters (+30%).
If those numbers are real? Cankles has no chance, not only in FL but anywhere.
I would imagine the bulk of the minority vote comes in during early voting rather than absentee.
I agree, but I think the article said black absentees were down 4%. Just looking at trends, not raw numbers.
In OH, D absentees were down 2%, Rs up 2%
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