Hot off the press (https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/14/late-night-numbers-from-florida-older-whites-dominating-early-vote-by-mail-but-democrats-holding-their-own/):
“Of the more-than 310k vote-by-mail ballots received (not yet tallied) by Florida’s 67 SOEs, ElectionSmith, Inc. has tallied voter file information about 99.7% of those who have already voted in the presidential election. By far–over 82% — of the VBM received have been cast by white voters. Another 7% have been cast by blacks, 6% by Hispanics, and the balance other racial/ethnic groups.”
African-Americans were 13% of Florida’s electorate in 2008 and 2012 vs 11% for 2004. In early vote, it is only 7%. If it stays at closer to 11% with Obama off the ballot in 2016, DEMS lose about 160,000 votes. Could easily flip the state to Trump.
VBM = Vote-by-Mail
How do they know the demographics other than party affiliation?
So as of today, Rs would lead absentees by 63,000, gain 160,000 in race%, net gain 146,000
That’s a good twitter follow right there. That’s the info I was looking for a couple days ago but was unable to find. Updated returns also: GOP 173,451; DEM 166,667; UAF 61,955; Others 11,632