Posted on 10/13/2016 2:12:11 PM PDT by Typelouder
PRESS RELEASE FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Thursday, October 13, 2016 Ohio Poll Shows Trump Leading Ohio by 6.67% Pre-Debate
Trump then Gains 4% while Clinton Loses 1% After the Debate
Akron, OH – The We the People Convention today announced the results of a two part Ohio poll of likely voters. The poll was intended to determine voter preferences in the presidential election prior to the debate on Sunday, October 9, 2016, but after the Trump tapes and the WikiLeaks emails were leaked on Friday, October 7, 1016, and then after the debate was over.
The original poll on Saturday, October 8, 2016 of 1,539 Ohio voters showed that Donald Trump was winning Ohio by 6.67%, preferred by 46.34% of voters versus Hillary Clinton’s 39.67%. These results reflect the fact that 91% of respondents indicted that they were aware of the contents of the Trump audio tape that was released the day before the poll, while only 66% of the respondents were aware of the comments made by Clinton to bankers in the email released that same day. A strong 75% of the respondents said that they expected to watch the presidential debate the next day.
A follow-up poll was then conducted on Tuesday, October 11, 2016 of the previous polls respondents to see if they had changed their position after the debate. Of the original 1,539 respondents, 473 took the second poll. The results were that Donald Trump has gained 4% and Hillary Clinton had lost 1% of their support after the debate. A total of 50.22% supported Trump in the second poll while 38.47% said they supported Clinton. That gave Trump a lead of 11.75% post debate.
The first poll was conducted on Saturday, October 8, 2016 between 3:30 PM and 6:30 PM EDT. Calls were placed to 45,105 randomly selected voters from our data base of 4.5 million current land line phone numbers in Ohio. Of those called, 1,539 respondents completed the survey, a 3.4% response rate. The poll has a margin of error of ± 2.46% at the 95% confidence level. Of the respondents surveyed, 38.46% vote Democrat and 38.67% vote Republican and 52% were women and 48% men. Results were gathered from 87 of the 88 Counties in Ohio. Every age group from 21 year olds to 90 year olds were surveyed.
The followup poll was conducted on Tuesday, October 11, 2016, between 6:30 and 7:00 PM EDT. Calls were placed to 1,539 respondents to a previous poll conducted on October 8, 2016. A total of 473 took this followup poll, which is 30.07%. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3.75% at the 95% confidence level.
Of the respondents to the followup poll, 36.78% vote Democrat and 39.11% vote Republican. 51.79% were women and 48.21% men. Results were gathered from 86 of the 88 Counties in Ohio. Every age group from 21 year olds to 90 year olds were surveyed.
The poll was conducted by TRZ Communications Services, Inc., a private communications company, located in Akron, OH that is majority owned by Tom Zawistowski, who is also the Executive Director of the Portage County TEA Party, and President of the We the People Convention and Ohio Citizens PAC. Zawistowski is one of fourteen founding members of the Tea Party for Trump Project
The “sky is falling” concern troll crowd is pretty quiet today.
Good news on lots of fronts.
Some may queztion their weigbting of Ohio voters at about 37 dem and 39 repu lican
That is fact in Ohio. We have a repub governor, legislature, supreme court, sec state, AG, etc.
CTR Checks started to bounce?
I thought the rally didn’t start until 7:30
From a friend who is on the local county GOP executive committee:
“18,000 new republican voters in Medina county, donations at HQ are record breaking. Yet the nevertrumps say he’s destroying the party. Not from my vantage point.”
Pretty much a 50/50 split on D/R. Hoping that someone familiar with Ohio voting patterns can tell us how realistic that is. But in any case it is nice to see a big lead for our guy.
If this poll were accurate, neither candidate would be campaigning in Ohio.
This is not a great methodology since the sample will be biased to those who answer land lines. However, I am not sure there is a better methodology for this election. The standard approach of trying to correct for the sample you get by tweaking it to be more like the break down of demographics you expect to vote is flawed as well.
The truth is, the polls are not as reliable because this election is so different. The good news for us is we have more uncertainties in our favor:
The following unknowns likely will cause Trump to do better than most polls project:
* Bradley effect (shy Trump voter)
* Monster vote (people who don't normally vote, making exception for Trump)
* Enthusiasm gap (Trump people more excited and being more likely to vote and do get out the vote stuff)
The following is the only unknown that might help Clinton do better:
* Vote fraud.
I could see my reflection in the snow covered hills.
I know of several lifelong democrat Teamsters who are voting for Trump.
It may be anecdotal, but judging by signs around my community on the streets I travel, Trump is winning by about 50 to 2.
He sounds great!
Not too surprising, as he's had dealings with lots of unions in his many projects.
It’s the same here in South Central Ohio. We seldom see Clinton signs but we see Trump signs everywhere
Help! Looking for trump Cincinnati live thread!
Help! Looking for trump Cincinnati live thread!
Help! Looking for trump Cincinnati live thread!
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