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Florida Absentee Ballot update, 10/13/2016
10/13/2016 | self

Posted on 10/13/2016 6:49:42 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 7.3% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.

10/13/16: REPs - 83,646, DEMs - 77,817 lead of 5,829 for REPs, 42.4% to 39.5%

10/12/16: REPs - 43,358, DEMs - 40,049 lead of 3,303 for REPs, 42.6% to 39.4%

10/11/16: REPs - 21,016, DEMs - 18,419 lead of 2,597 for REPs, 43.4% to 38.1%

10/10/16: REPs - 14,058, DEMs - 11,054 lead of 3,004 for REPs, 45.4% to 35.7%

10/09/16: REPs - 13,338, DEMs - 9,659, lead of 3,679 for REPs, 46.9% to 33.9%

10/07/16: REPs - 5,085, DEMs - 3,490, lead of 1,595 for REPs

10/06/16: REPs - 4,163, DEMs - 2,738, lead of 1,425 for REPs

For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):

10/13/16: REPs - 9,033, DEMs - 10,964, lead of 1,931 for DEMs

10/12/16: REPs - 3,778, DEMs - 4,403, lead of 625 for DEMs

10/11/16: REPs - 405, DEMs - 341, lead of 64 for REPs


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS:
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At this time, I predicting 78% of REP absentee ballots are returned and accepted and 70% of DEM absentee ballots are returned and accepted. Based on those assumptions, I'm predicting REP lead in returned and accepted absentee ballots by 123,802. Prediction will be updated daily.
1 posted on 10/13/2016 6:49:42 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

What is the allowance for the “theft” factor common to the Democrat election operatives?


2 posted on 10/13/2016 6:51:37 AM PDT by Don Corleone (Oil the gun, eat the cannolis, take it to the mattress.)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

WOW. See mail.


3 posted on 10/13/2016 6:51:39 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: SpeedyInTexas

21000 lead with only 7 percent in?!?!?

Did i do something wrong? Just a round figure.

Was I supposed to subtract the areas where dems are ahead?


4 posted on 10/13/2016 6:54:40 AM PDT by dp0622 (IThe only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

I’m not quite sure what I’m reading here. Translation please. Thanks.


5 posted on 10/13/2016 6:54:55 AM PDT by JonPreston
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To: Don Corleone

We know the Russians have hacked our political parties, govt computers, voting machines, and polling places. The obvious solution seems to include checking voter IDs, and double-checking electronic voting results at every polling place. Perhaps take the angle that we’re trying to prevent the Russians from throwing the election to Trump, because we all know how they hate Hillary over her failed foreign policy.

From Foreign Policy online: “Washington has accused Russia of hacking political parties and election databases, so now what? The Council on Foreign Relations’ Adam Segal walks through the options available and challenges confronting the Obama administration as it decides what to do about its newly-public conclusion.”


6 posted on 10/13/2016 7:05:17 AM PDT by Dr. Pritchett
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To: SpeedyInTexas
What does this mean?
More Rep than Dem absentee ballots? Why?
Does Returned mean Rejected? If so, for what reason?
The Rep/Dem is what they were registered for, right? Is it known who the votes were for?
Is someone stealing Rep names to file Dem votes?

7 posted on 10/13/2016 7:05:25 AM PDT by BitWielder1 (I'd rather have Unequal Wealth than Equal Poverty.)
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To: JonPreston; dp0622

Approximately 7.3% of Florida’s absentee ballots that were mailed out to voters have been returned.

Of those returned, 83,646 are from Republicans. 77,817 are from Democrats. Republicans have a lead of 5,829 in returned absentee ballots.

I’m predicting that number will grow to 123,802 by election day.


8 posted on 10/13/2016 7:06:36 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: JonPreston

While the actual votes aren’t counted yet, submitted absentee ballots can be correlated with the submittor’s party affiliation. Significantly more republicans are submitting early votes than democrats, implying Trump is probably winning.


9 posted on 10/13/2016 7:08:14 AM PDT by ctdonath2 ("If anyone will not listen to your words, shake the dust from your feet and leave them." - Jesus)
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To: SpeedyInTexas
I don't understand all those numbers but I assume it is a good thing (for Trump).

I really detest early voting. Should only be for our military or for businessmen who are forced to travel out of their state. And in those cases, there should be no stats released to the public until the polls are closed for everybody.

Everybody else should show up at the polls on ELECTION DAY. Is that really so hard? People can't take the extra time on one damn day out of the year to go vote?

10 posted on 10/13/2016 7:09:29 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: ctdonath2

Although the early vote totals in the post are just from Hillsborough County, so we can’t really assume Rep votes exceed Dem votes. We can see statewide absentee totals in the post but not statewide early votes.


11 posted on 10/13/2016 7:11:29 AM PDT by Rumierules
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To: JonPreston

Registered Dems in FL routinely vote in a high proportion for Republicans. But Dems are hoping for an advantage this election because of the number of vote-by-mail requests from ‘Hispanic areas’.

There is also the misleading use of the term ‘absentee ballots’, which has morphed this year in FL to ‘vote by mail’.

http://dos.myflorida.com/elections/for-voters/voting/absentee-voting/

I’d say nothing conclusive can be drawn from these numbers. They’re fodder for wishful thinking.


12 posted on 10/13/2016 7:13:34 AM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: SpeedyInTexas; ctdonath2

So Republicans + 79,000 in 2012 and a projection of Republicans + 123,802 this year.

Looks good, thanks.


13 posted on 10/13/2016 7:14:06 AM PDT by JonPreston
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To: SpeedyInTexas

well my oldest is a Marine and is at Camp Lejeune . He will be receiving his absentee ballot this weekend and will be mailing it off by Tuesday. He is totally for Trump and republicans, and so is his pals in the Marines.


14 posted on 10/13/2016 7:28:51 AM PDT by manc ( If they want so called marriage equality then they should support polygamy too.)
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To: SamAdams76

wife and I agree.
Absentee should be for overseas, or military. My oldest is a marine and said he is voting absentee , and so is all his marine pals.

Everyone should get to the polls on one day, none of this early voting crap where people can vote numerous times, and all places should have ID.


15 posted on 10/13/2016 7:31:10 AM PDT by manc ( If they want so called marriage equality then they should support polygamy too.)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Thanks!


16 posted on 10/13/2016 7:45:20 AM PDT by dp0622 (IThe only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: jjotto

Actually, the Sec State very clear in separating absentee requests from returns from “early vote in person.” Just go to the site.


17 posted on 10/13/2016 7:48:15 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Rumierules

Statewide in-person early voting starts on Oct 24th. Will post those statistics when they are available.


18 posted on 10/13/2016 7:49:28 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: jjotto

Agree & Disagree with your comments.

Republicans want to increase their absentee ballot lead (yes, vote-by-mail) to offset the traditional Democratic lead in in-person early voting.

While no conclusive evidence exists in the data to say who will win Florida, it is definitely better to be ahead in absentee ballots!


19 posted on 10/13/2016 7:53:05 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: manc

God Bless him!


20 posted on 10/13/2016 7:53:50 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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