CLINTON supporter's ENTHUSIASM is WAY DOWN compared to Trump's.
This chart from the ENTHUSIASM tabs of the daily PPP poll...
It may very well be that the voting mix in November may be MUCH MORE MEN voting than Women.
Posted on 10/03/2016 3:15:11 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod
Trump: 47.0
Clinton: 42.4
Increase of .1 for him, .2 for her from yesterday.
(Excerpt) Read more at graphics.latimes.com ...
This is gold. Thank you.
Yes, she's closing The Gap, American Eagle, Old Navy, Macy's, Target, Sears, K-Mart..............
Today Hillary is at 51.1 and Trump is at 43.8, both out of the margin for error grey.
Does this mean the respondent for Trump is saying:
1) The system is rigged, but I will do my part and vote trump, or
2) Hillary has the better chance, but personally I will never vote for her.
what are your thoughts as to why someone would cast their vote for Trump under tab #1 - Election forecast and tab #2 - predicted winner -
Or do I have this confused?
I thought tab #1 is who will you vote for, and tab#2 is who will others vote for.
That’s a really generous gender gap for Hillary. It was 53-47 last time and I’d expect that if not closer. Also, I noticed in the WaPo internals that Trump and HRC are essentially tied with white women.
You are probably mis-reading my first chart.
In the LA Times poll...
Hillary Leads Trump AMONG women by 8 points.
Trump Leads Hillary AMONG MEN by 16 points.
So, the LA Times is (apparently deliberately) OVER-SAMPLING Women, and UNDER-SAMPLING Men.
The chart shows 55 women being polled for every 45 men, which is skewed.
They should poll fewer women, and more men.
Each day, 1/7th of those who have agreed to participate (more than 400 per day) are invited to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that...
(1) you will vote in the presidential election?
(2) if you were to vote, you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else (percentages add to 100) and
(3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win (percentages add to 100).
I have to admit to making the now obvious error that the demographic distributions used by the LAT/USC/Dornsife poll were pretty much fixed.
Your trend line for the Female/Male ratio is quite telling and shows me that there is fudging going on even with our favorite poll. Likewise for the <$35K percentage.
Keep up the good work. You should follow up on your own speculation and analyze Age Brackets, Education and Income Brackets.
I think it shows the INCREDIBLE bias in the mainstream media.
Constantly telling us Hillary is leading, when she is trailing.
Constantly telling us that Trump is unqualified, and how Hillary is the most qualified person for President in history.
Constantly telling us that the entire world hates Trump and respects Hillary.
And yet when the L.A. Times asks people who they are going to vote for, they hate Hillary so much they intend to vote for who they perceive to be the loser.
Unless something dramatic happens to Trump before election day, or the DNC realizes Hillary is doomed and replace her with Biden/Fauxcahontas, (don’t laugh) Trump wins in a landslide.
My quickie analysis of your 53% to 55.5% change in the M/F mix yields somewhere between a 1.5% and 2.0% bump for Hillary in this poll. A slight fudge that the LAT hopes nobody will notice.
But you did notice. Thanks again.
the gray is the intersection of both MOEs.
i want Trump above the gray ;)
I agree that that the bias affects all of us. I have a Granddaughter that attends college and lives with me. Big Bernie supporter! But thinks me to be deranged to even consider Trump.
I understand; I voted for Carter once.
I had a personal epiphany when I began following some of the christian prophecies documented early about Donald Trump. Up until that point, my bias told him he was a democrat at heart and could not be trusted. Then I began to watch his rallies on YouTube and can now recite most of his stump speech. Then to find out he has held many of these same positions for many years.
As one who voted for Carter, then Reagan, I remember those times. Carter stirred little enthusiasm his second run, but the bias against Gov. Reagan at the time was immense.
It took millions of voters, one vote at a time to put him in office.
I don't care if Hillary is dosing with meds, blood, witch's brew, whatever. She needs to still be above room temperature come 11/08, so we can "Beat Her" to quote the Mayor.
Then we will have to deal with the games that could be played in the Electoral College.
Fortunately, Trump’s base isn’t deterred by such chicanery. Nobody believes polls anymore.
If the men out vote the women in this election Trump should win easily.
Fingers crossed.
Amazing!
I saw your reply in the other the thread as well. Thanks for digging and putting this together.
There seems to be a miscommunication. I think we’re in agreement. Last election the split was 53F to 47 male. The split in the poll seems far too generous to Hillary given that it’s wider than 2012. I’m expecting the gap to shrink, 52-48 or 51.5-48.5.
It looks sort of like an "intersection" when the mean values are close enough together, but if the mean values get widely separated, there isn't any "intersection" of their respective MOE values. In this poll, look at the African American graph for an example.
Yes - and when there is space between the grey areas, I’ll know Trump is out of hellery’s MOE.
I wish they had each MOE a different color [and the intersection a different color]
There is only one gray area. Again, look at the African American graph. H always gets much more (higher mean sample value) than T, and is always above the gray area. They gray area is not any sort of "simple intersection" of MOE of "choose H" and "choose T."
I think the following is approximately true:
When T is on the line at the top of the gray band, the end of his "lower tail" meets the end of Hillary's "upper tail."
Keep in mind that the upper end of T's position is ABOVE the point on the red line. His position is sampled at 47%, but could actually be as high as 49%.
The gray band is an entirely different calculation from MOE of either H or T position, and the gray band has its own uncertainty.
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