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USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: Both Trump & Clinton Up a Bit
LA Times ^ | October 3, 2016 | USC Dornsife/LA Times

Posted on 10/03/2016 3:15:11 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod

Trump: 47.0
Clinton: 42.4

Increase of .1 for him, .2 for her from yesterday.

(Excerpt) Read more at graphics.latimes.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls
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1 posted on 10/03/2016 3:15:11 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod
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To: BlessedBeGod

Good - get out of the grey and expand it.

America is counting on Trump to restore us!


2 posted on 10/03/2016 3:19:50 AM PDT by Principled (...the Supreme Court of the United States favors some laws over others...)
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To: BlessedBeGod

Trump getting close to the 50%


3 posted on 10/03/2016 3:32:37 AM PDT by struggle (The)
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To: BlessedBeGod
So she's starting to close the gap!

That's how the MSM will spin it.

4 posted on 10/03/2016 3:34:59 AM PDT by Sir_Humphrey (Strong minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events, weak minds discuss people -Socrates)
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To: Principled

Explain getting out of the grey..


5 posted on 10/03/2016 3:45:50 AM PDT by Dog (..."I'm just a cook....")
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To: BlessedBeGod

This really seems like a true blip. Less than 3/10ths of 1% total shift between the nominees.


6 posted on 10/03/2016 3:47:05 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

The change of .1 is statistical noise and therefore meaningless. The trend line is level to slightly up for Trump since the debate.

Despite the wild eyed screeching of the media over Clintons “huge “ debate victory it did nothing to move the numbers. The conventions have a much more discernable effect on the candidates numbers than any debate ever would and even the convention bounces are short lived.


7 posted on 10/03/2016 3:52:27 AM PDT by billyboy15
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To: Dog

That grey part of the graph that indicates moe...

I think....


8 posted on 10/03/2016 3:53:34 AM PDT by Principled (...the Supreme Court of the United States favors some laws over others...)
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To: Dog
Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.

The gray band is a calculated interval that accounts for sample size and the difference between the mutually exclusive choices (Crooked and Trump). Bigger sample size reduces the uncertainty and width of the gray band, and larger difference between the choices also reduces the width of the gray band.

9 posted on 10/03/2016 3:58:28 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: Principled

Yes the gray is the margin of error.

What is good is Trump is getting out of the MOE but so is PIAPS

If she drops .3 she out of the gray as well


10 posted on 10/03/2016 3:59:59 AM PDT by Fai Mao (PIAPS for Prison 2016)
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To: Principled
MOE of a particular sort. MOE is most often applied to a single "mean" value. For xample, in this poll, the "mean" for Trump is 47.0%, and that single value has a margin of error.

The grey band accounts for MOE of two samples (two MOE's, if you will), and aims to describe the probability that the item with the higher sample average, actually has the higher value in the whole population.

11 posted on 10/03/2016 4:10:31 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: BlessedBeGod

The other votes, 10.6 will begin to shrink the felon’s votes as the Bernie people begin to realize she is a bad choice for them. Ultimately Stein will end up with a little more than Johnson as he is proving the destructive nature of daily marijuana use with his clownish comments.


12 posted on 10/03/2016 4:16:46 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: Sir_Humphrey
Very typical for major party candidates to gain support as the election draws nearer. Those who despise them both will gradually abandon candidates like Gary Johnson and Jill Stein when they realize there is no way for them to win.

Got a call from a DNC volunteer last week who asked if I could be counted on to support Hillary. I told them I would probably vote for Jill Stein as she was the real deal.

13 posted on 10/03/2016 4:31:38 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (ObaMao: Fake America, Fake Messiah, Fake Black man. How many fakes can you fit into one Zer0?)
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To: BlessedBeGod

Since the beginning of the poll in early July, Trump is up about 4% and the criminal is up 2%. Undecideds are breaking about 2-1 for Trump as expected. It will be interesting to see where Johnson’s votes go, but Trump is looking very good at the moment.


14 posted on 10/03/2016 4:36:32 AM PDT by usafa92 (Trump 2016 - Destroying the GOPe while Making America Great Again!)
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To: Sir_Humphrey
So she's starting to close the gap!

I am CONCERNED!

15 posted on 10/03/2016 4:37:59 AM PDT by Ken H (Best election ever!)
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To: jmaroneps37

LOL!!!


16 posted on 10/03/2016 5:05:06 AM PDT by vinny29
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To: BlessedBeGod; Principled; struggle; Sir_Humphrey; Dog; SoFloFreeper; billyboy15; Cboldt; Fai Mao; ..
Nearly EVERY poll cheats as much as they think they can get away with in EVERY DEMOGRAPHIC to help Hillary.

We already know polls cheat on the DEM/Republican distribution, but here is also an example of cheating with the Female / Male mix.




I would bet this poll ALSO cheats in "age brackets", "education", and "income brackets" too, to favor Hillary.
In fact... HERE is an example of the MOST "Hillary-Friendly" age bracket being more-heavily polled over time


17 posted on 10/03/2016 6:03:10 AM PDT by Future Useless Eater (Clinton Foundation - Trading "Regime Change" and Uranium for donations since 2009)
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To: BlessedBeGod

The USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll has been consistently more favorable for Trump than the others. What is different about this poll that causes this?

In general, I would average the results of all polls, perhaps weighted by sample size, to get an idea of where the race stands. I think that is basically what the 538 site does.


18 posted on 10/03/2016 6:08:33 AM PDT by reaganaut1
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To: Future Useless Eater

That’s a really generous gender gap for Hillary. It was 53-47 last time and I’d expect that if not closer.

Also, I noticed in the WaPo internals that Trump and HRC are essentially tied with white women. He doesn’t have a ‘woman problem’, it’s a ‘female minority’ issue.


19 posted on 10/03/2016 6:20:04 AM PDT by Mjreagan
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To: usafa92

Needs just under 3 to seal it.


20 posted on 10/03/2016 6:20:59 AM PDT by Mjreagan
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