Posted on 10/03/2016 3:15:11 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod
Trump: 47.0
Clinton: 42.4
Increase of .1 for him, .2 for her from yesterday.
(Excerpt) Read more at graphics.latimes.com ...
Good - get out of the grey and expand it.
America is counting on Trump to restore us!
Trump getting close to the 50%
That's how the MSM will spin it.
Explain getting out of the grey..
This really seems like a true blip. Less than 3/10ths of 1% total shift between the nominees.
The change of .1 is statistical noise and therefore meaningless. The trend line is level to slightly up for Trump since the debate.
Despite the wild eyed screeching of the media over Clintons “huge “ debate victory it did nothing to move the numbers. The conventions have a much more discernable effect on the candidates numbers than any debate ever would and even the convention bounces are short lived.
That grey part of the graph that indicates moe...
I think....
Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.
The gray band is a calculated interval that accounts for sample size and the difference between the mutually exclusive choices (Crooked and Trump). Bigger sample size reduces the uncertainty and width of the gray band, and larger difference between the choices also reduces the width of the gray band.
Yes the gray is the margin of error.
What is good is Trump is getting out of the MOE but so is PIAPS
If she drops .3 she out of the gray as well
The grey band accounts for MOE of two samples (two MOE's, if you will), and aims to describe the probability that the item with the higher sample average, actually has the higher value in the whole population.
The other votes, 10.6 will begin to shrink the felon’s votes as the Bernie people begin to realize she is a bad choice for them. Ultimately Stein will end up with a little more than Johnson as he is proving the destructive nature of daily marijuana use with his clownish comments.
Got a call from a DNC volunteer last week who asked if I could be counted on to support Hillary. I told them I would probably vote for Jill Stein as she was the real deal.
Since the beginning of the poll in early July, Trump is up about 4% and the criminal is up 2%. Undecideds are breaking about 2-1 for Trump as expected. It will be interesting to see where Johnson’s votes go, but Trump is looking very good at the moment.
I am CONCERNED!
LOL!!!
The USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll has been consistently more favorable for Trump than the others. What is different about this poll that causes this?
In general, I would average the results of all polls, perhaps weighted by sample size, to get an idea of where the race stands. I think that is basically what the 538 site does.
That’s a really generous gender gap for Hillary. It was 53-47 last time and I’d expect that if not closer.
Also, I noticed in the WaPo internals that Trump and HRC are essentially tied with white women. He doesn’t have a ‘woman problem’, it’s a ‘female minority’ issue.
Needs just under 3 to seal it.
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