Do see your point. NJ is unlikely.
Frankly, Colorado and Nevada are tougher for Trump than the rustbelt states. PA, MI, and to a lesser degree Wisconsin and Minnesota are our best bets IMO. Virginia would be a nice surprise, but I fear that state is a longshot.
Trump should keep on pushing.
Hillary has to keep watching all around her. One gaffe that does not fly and she’s gone.
Trump has been UP in Colorado and Nevada in some polls not long ago. I have yet to see him up in a single poll in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota. If he wins any of these states, it will be the result of huge cross-over voting by white Democrats.