Posted on 10/01/2016 6:39:05 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
(Excerpt) Read more at graphics.latimes.com ...
This poll now reflects 4 full days of polling AFTER the debate and 3 days of non stop Miss Piggy Universe garbage.
Trump was up 3.5 points heading into the debate. Curious to see where he is on Monday.
Encouraging. Who knows whether or not the LA Times poll has the actual spread accurate or not, but if nothing else, it’s a great poll to track momentum that will often show up in other polling soon.
The strong Trump day of 9/24 fell off the 7 day roll, so it would appear that much of yesterdays small dip can be attributed to that.
I know we’re all naturally skeptical, look at 2012. But I think we all agree L.A. Times are pretty much Trump -haters. Ergo this is good that it’s holding. Some have surmised Hillary lost the Presidency when she had her stumble. That was a pretty extreme event. Who knows. I really want to see Fl and CO poll higher for Trump. It sure would be nice to get a polling surprise from any given blue state.
It’s excellent to see Trump’s lead holding. I wish this graph had the days listed so we could see which part of the curve represents the debate and other events.
Intuition says this poll is accurate, as well as Rasmussen’s poll that shows a smaller yet consistent lead for Trump.
What are the differences among USC & Rasmussen and the others — RCP, Fox, WSJ, etc. — to account for this? RINO-lover Brit Hume was saying yesterday that sampling between ‘RATS & ‘Pubs is roughly equal, although the ‘RATS are always sampled a few percentage points higher (2-3). Could that account for the difference? Sample size or polling method? Adults vs. registered voters vs. likely voters?
Advise?
I think the weighting is not taking into account voter enthusiasm. many of the MSM and traditional polling outlets are using 2012 turnout numbers. I think this time around it will be more like R+2.
How come no one is talking about the new FOX News poll that came out on Friday?
Hillary got a tiny bounce of 2 points
She now leads TRUMP in a 4 way by 3 points, it was 1 point before the debate so it’s still within the margin of error
2 way she leads TRUMP by 5
Looks pretty good but don’t know if anything will happen with the TRUMP tweeting Miss Universe fallout
I think is it good that this poll weights its sample by race and gender. Others often are skewed, especially by gender (one often sees “+14” or some such number for women). But, unless I missed it, there was no mention of weighting by party affiliation.
SHRILLARY!, that evil degenerate crooked MONSTER, has only one shot, and that is to hide until election day.
Unfortunately for her, she has 2 more debates and numerous campaign stops, plus that silly FAGGOT she picked for VP is going to look like a silly FAGGOT when he gets destroyed by PENCE at the VP Debate.
The more people hear that ANNOYING STUPID VENOMOUS SHRILLARY DRONE VOICE and look at her PARACHUTE type overcoats, the more they HATE HER.
Her numbers will continue to drop, and the purge of the left that will follow once the hard right gets into power is going to be Stalin like in magnitude.
But....but...but Nate Silver decreed Hillary has a 64.3% chance of winning the election!
If Trump is behind, it means it is a bad poll, and we cannot talk about it here.
Polls are way off.
Election is not going to be D +6. If you want to be conservative, it would be more D +2 for Hillary.
If Trump remains strong at the end of the month, R +2 to R +4 look more likely.
We’ll see on Election Day which is closer to the truth. It will depend on which side does a better job of getting out its voters to the polls.
That’s why polls this year are a crapshoot. No one really knows what is going to happen.
If Trump is ahead, the FR concern trolls say it is a bad poll, and must troll the thread discussing it.
Matt Bevin in 2014 was behind in every KY poll until the very end and won on Election Day.
Polls showing Trump behind mean nothing when they’re heavily loaded with the Democrats.
And even in those polls, Hillary still cannot get a lead beyond the MOE.
Even Fox is downplaying this poll and instead cites RCP.
Even Fox is in the bag for Hillary. I can’t even watch TV an longer.
Of interest, the RAND tracking poll from 2012 only briefly showed Romney ahead just after the Republican convention. Thereafter, the tracking poll showed Obama ahead right up until election day while pretty much nailing the spread.
Much more variability this year in the LA Times poll which actually makes sense considering this election is shall we say, different lol.https://alpdata.rand.org/index.php?page=election2012
LOL
We cannot live in our own bubble! If it’s a bad poll we still need to discuss it instead of just believing nothings happened!
I didn’t even bother watching BOR, Megyn & Hannity yesterday which I do everyday since I knew the FOX poll came out with a slight Hilaery bounce of 2 points within margin of error lol
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