[Rokke]

Blacks and young people put Obama into office against republican opponents who never could fire up republican voters. 2016 polling models (for what they are worth) are using 2008 and 2012 turnout assumptions.

Not even the NYTs believes Clinton is going to get blacks and young people to match Obamas turnout. Far from it. So what does that say about using election turnout from 2008 and 2012 as an accurate predictor to base 2016 polling data on?

[EQAndyBuzz]

It’s not the black vote that Clinton needs to worry about. It’s the making up for the lost votes with cheating that will do her in. To win PA, she needs 110% of the vote in Philly. The more blacks that choose not to support her, the higher that number needs to be.