Familiar with the GIGO phenomenon?
Again, most of your data is based on a 2012 turn out model.
Do you fact data like this into your model or just assume a static electorate?
Gallup: Democrats who ‘will definitely vote’ at 16-year low
The purpose of my model over the years has never been to predict the outcome, as I am not a pollster gathering my own data.
The purpose of my model has always been to reflect back the aggregate implications of the various polls that do exist.
To that end, consider the following:
l. I do not unskew or otherwise adjust poll results based on what I think. I use the data as presented in order for you to draw conclusions. You can reject it out of hand as garbage, or you can isolate the garbage vs. your own perceptions and publicly call out the garbage and shame pollsters into improving their accuracy.
2. Comparing poll ranges is not enough; margin of error must also be factored in. Polls from different states with different MOEs are hard to conceptualize at an aggregate national level without a model like this to normalize the results.
3. Averaging the polls helps smooth the inconsistencies from different polling biases.
4. Tracking the changes over the weeks is valuable information.
You are not on my ping list. You can see my weekly model report here.
-PJ