Posted on 09/27/2016 10:12:32 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida early voting consists of 2 components: Vote by Mail (absentee voting) and In Person Early Voting.
2012 Election results show the following.
In Person Voting (ballots cast, not counted though): DEM - 1,109,262, REP - 862,277, IND - 440,133, TOTAL - 2,411,672
Absentee vote: REP - 885,675, DEM - 806,310, IND - 365,736, TOTAL - 2,057,721
Combined: DEM - 1,915,572, REP - 1,747,952, IND - 805,869, TOTAL 4,469,393
(source: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/11/day-before-election-day-outlook-45-have-voted-ds-lead-rs-by-167000-ballots.html)
So REPs won the Absentee Vote in 2012 by 79,000. The DEMs won the In Person Early Voting in 2012 by 247,000. Combined, the DEMs won total Early Voting by 167,000
As of today, 9/27/2016, here are the ballot requests for Absentee Voting: REP - 933,216, DEM - 801,455 (source: https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats)
REP have a lead of 132,000 ballots requested. This is significantly higher than the 79,000 advantage REPs had in 2012. One can presumably say that there is an enthusiasm gap benefiting Trump this year.
Here are the stats specifically for Hillsborough County (2016 Absentee ballot requests as of 9/27/2016): REP - 68,806, DEM - 69,878, OTHER - 4,405, IND - 27,974. TOTAL - 171,063.
Hillsborough County is the county used by Axiom Strategies for their "battleground county poll". Hillsborough has closely matched the statewide vote total in the last 4 elections (twice for Bush, twice for Obama). Their last poll showed Trump up in Hillsborough by 1%.
As of today REPs are losing the Absentee Ballot requests by 1,000 votes in Hillsborough. Romney won independents in Florida, according to 2012 exit polls by 5%, 50-45%. Most 2016 polls show Trump winning independents. Assuming Trump wins Florida independents by 10%, he would pick up another 2800 votes (10% of 27,974). That would put him 1800 votes in the lead. An 1800 vote win out of 171,063 total ballots for Hillsborough is about 1% - matching the Axiom Strategies poll.
Conclusion: Preliminary results from Hillsborough is pointing to a very tight race, with TRUMP NARROWLY IN THE LEAD. Statewide, REPs are doing somewhat better with their lead in requested Absentee ballot requests.
Plan on the Democrats to try the hanging chad con and other shenanigans if the race is tight. Lets hope that we are better prepared this time.
Thanks.
I’m listening to Rush on KOA Radio in Colorado (via the iHeartRadioApp) and during the break the local news reported on registrations and absentee ballot requests.
D registrations: 9.000, 2,500 behind R (They did not report specific R numbers.)
D absentee ballot requests: 100,000 in 2012, half that (so far, I presume) in 2016.
One thing to keep in mind is that the rest of the state is not static. There has been a large influx of new residents to Central Florida from Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico’s economy is in the crapper, so many of those with the means to leave are doing so. Puerto Ricans are American citiznes, and a lot of them are registering to vote.
Be nice to have state registration stats. Can you find those?
To get 2012 stats change ‘2016’ in the url to ‘2012’ ex:
http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/2012/September/VotersByPartyStatus.pdf
Thanks. Ok, so there are “active” (get ballots) “inactive” (don’t receive ballots) and “prereg” (kids coming of age who registered but who can’t vote in this election.
GOP 976,141
DEM 973,460
GOP +2,681: Even the slightest GOTV advantage will be huge, and if Trump takes just 5% of indies he wins big.
Interestingly, “inactive” Dems +22k more than GOP, and prereg heavily favors . . . GOP +13,000 net!
“Conclusion: Preliminary results from Hillsborough is pointing to a very tight race, with TRUMP NARROWLY IN THE LEAD.”
Not to be argumentative but I’m not sure I agree with this assessment. In essence (if I’m reading the numbers correctly) gop has already basically increased its’ 2012 lead in absentee ballots by 65% (132,000 in 2016 as compared to 79,000 in 2012). Then if (and I acknowledge if) Trump is doing well with independents he would be increasing the lead more.
As far as Hillsborough County I don’t think you posted its’ 2012 absentee ballot figures but if your calculations are accurate correlating the absentee figures to the Axiom poll of Trump having a one point lead this would be a seven point swing from Obama’s margin of victory in this county in 2012.
With both of these observations I’m not sure why these figures would be pointing to a very tight race and not to a narrow but at least decent Trump lead.
Am I missing something?
Glad to help. Thanks for the analysis. I think Trump can win CO, Ted Cruz’s backing should boost his chances.
Note that the numbers were as of 9/6, so it might be a good idea to check again in week or two to see if they have updated it.
Appreciate the comments.
There were 2 data points in the analysis. The statewide absentee ballots (up 65%) and Hillsborough county specific data.
The statewide numbers look very good for Trump and “could” point to a large win in Florida. However, the Hillsborough specific data is very close - 68K REPs vs 69K DEMs. You must agree that is close?
Axiom Strategies selected Hillsborough as their “battleground county” because it closely reflected the statewide totals in the last 4 elections. That is why I focused in on Hillsborough.
Maybe Hillsborough doesn’t accurately reflect the statewide totals this year. That is clearly possible. Maybe the 65% number will better reflect the result on November 8th. Time will tell.
We will get a lot more data over the coming weeks, including In Person early voting. Lets continue to chat.
Very good analysis.
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