“Conclusion: Preliminary results from Hillsborough is pointing to a very tight race, with TRUMP NARROWLY IN THE LEAD.”
Not to be argumentative but I’m not sure I agree with this assessment. In essence (if I’m reading the numbers correctly) gop has already basically increased its’ 2012 lead in absentee ballots by 65% (132,000 in 2016 as compared to 79,000 in 2012). Then if (and I acknowledge if) Trump is doing well with independents he would be increasing the lead more.
As far as Hillsborough County I don’t think you posted its’ 2012 absentee ballot figures but if your calculations are accurate correlating the absentee figures to the Axiom poll of Trump having a one point lead this would be a seven point swing from Obama’s margin of victory in this county in 2012.
With both of these observations I’m not sure why these figures would be pointing to a very tight race and not to a narrow but at least decent Trump lead.
Am I missing something?
Appreciate the comments.
There were 2 data points in the analysis. The statewide absentee ballots (up 65%) and Hillsborough county specific data.
The statewide numbers look very good for Trump and “could” point to a large win in Florida. However, the Hillsborough specific data is very close - 68K REPs vs 69K DEMs. You must agree that is close?
Axiom Strategies selected Hillsborough as their “battleground county” because it closely reflected the statewide totals in the last 4 elections. That is why I focused in on Hillsborough.
Maybe Hillsborough doesn’t accurately reflect the statewide totals this year. That is clearly possible. Maybe the 65% number will better reflect the result on November 8th. Time will tell.
We will get a lot more data over the coming weeks, including In Person early voting. Lets continue to chat.