The Donald Back Up By 4.1% in USC/LA Times Poll

USC-Dornsfire/LA Times Daybeak Tracking Poll ^ | 9/25/2016 | USC-Dornsfire/LA Times

[Cboldt]

The poll is exactly 7 day loop. You can see some groups tick up on one day, the average holds that value for 7 days, then drops. Look at the African American group, you see that twice, with a tird time just starting with the sample reported today.

There is no weighting. The poll rolls in one new sample, and rolls out the 7 day old sample.

[LS]

It’s a rolling poll. Trump had a couple of huge days of black vote that tilted everything. When those rolled off the average fell fast. More like Trump returned to a normal rather than “something happened”.

[Kozy]

September has not been kind to Hillary. Health issues dominate her campaign from opening pickle jars (what a stupid idea, it bought more attention to her issues), lack of rallies versus Trump everywhere, Trump rolling the press , paid riots in Charlotte, muslim attacks and Colin Kaepernick. Every sporting event that players protest like nails against a chalkboard. Sports viewership is down, the players are aggregated and blame Hillary the Obama clone Soros thinks that his paid black riot will energize the black voters, only it there is a large screen TV at each voting booth that a voter can take with them. It angers the white vote and at this stage once a vote makes a switch to Trump they are unswitchable then. Oh by the way, Hillary does not present a reason to vote for her.

[Mjreagan]

There must be a block of black Trump voters that keep coming around every so often to boost the numbers up...when they drop off, the trend shifts down and when they comeback around to them they boost up the overall numbers again.

[Cboldt]

Something weird about the sampling, and it isn't strictly the same population week after week either. The first time there was an uptick favoring Trump, in the African American group, was a month into the polling (started 7/10), and that uptick lasted exactly 7 days (8/16 to 8/23).

The next time an uptick happened, it was more than a week later (9/12 to 9/20), and was three consecutive "uptick samples," (9/12, 9/13 and 9/14) which rolled off over a week-later three day period.

The most recent uptick comes two or three days after the second one ended. I thought this uptick could be a repeat from one of the samples from the previous uptick. Counted back exactly 7 days from 9/24 to see if there was an uptick there, and don't see a significant uptick between 9/16 and 9/17.

Even though the upticks give me the heebie jeebies, the general trend, the spaces between the upticks, that looks pretty good.

[going hot]

He’s looking like a whiner.

Goes much deeper than looks.

[Mjreagan]

The trend is solidly Trump. There have to be days that are truer representations of the sample then others. My gut says this favors Trump but my pessimism disagrees.

[Cboldt]

-- The trend is solidly Trump. --

Very much so. FWIW (not much), I have no concern about Trump taking this election contest. I believe there is a substantial pro-Trump voting bloc that is invisible to the polls.

[GLDNGUN]

For those watching this poll, it has always had a delayed reaction to events by about a week, so nothing that happened yesterday or the day before is effecting this poll to a great degree.

The poll had Trump up by a large amount at the end of the DEMOCRAT convention because it took a week for the GOP convention to be baked into the cake.

So the following explains the polls recent movements. First, it took about a week for Shillary's 9/11 medical episode to be baked in, which then showed Trump opening up a nice lead.

Hillary took some time off and people didn't see her for a few days (which Dick Morris says the less people see of her the more they like her. Once she re-appears, people are reminded why they can't stand her). There are all kinds of rumors and guesses about Hillary's health, but she re-appears and people see that she can stand up, so her numbers stabilize.

Now, Trump has gained good ground the last 2 days. Why? Again, poll movement is reflected by about a week. What was happening last weekend? The Muslim attacks in Minnesota and New York. Every time Muslims strike, it proves Donald's points about Islamic extremists and immigration of those from Muslim countries.

[dowcaet]

It’s the LA Slimes, a wannabe leftist cousin of their brethren in New York. While they post that poll this hit piece story was on their front page this morning. Make of it what you will, but it’s not a coincidence they post this the day before the debate.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-false-statements-20160925-snap-story.html

[Future Useless Eater]

Despite the recent swings, the trend ... looks very good for Trump with this poll.

Excellent point!

Wall Street analyzes comparable stocks by drawing lines across the peaks and valleys to show trend.

If the trend holds, Mrs. Slick Willy will sink like the Titanic!

[BRL]

The media effectively spun the press conference where trump said the hillary started it. We thought it was brilliant but the media spun it. Trump could have gone down more though had he played the presser the way the.media wanted them to.

[BRL]

I like those lines.

[Kozy]

Here's the real positive for Trump, he is in an upward channel looking to break through 48%. At the same time Hillary is trending down to 42%. There has to be a significant and I really mean a significant event to change the velocity of either. Neither Trump or Hillary can cause that event however Hillary's failing health can pushed her further down not up. She does not have a clear plan to 48% where Trump is.

[gogeo]

I've heard this election described as a "Flight 93" election. We've decided we have nothing to lose by rushing the cockpit.

I think in a sense this is a "Matrix" election. Once one realized that we've been fed lies by the government, the elites and the media, Trump is the only choice.

All Trump's supporters are converted. He's earned his win.

[NormsRevenge]

IT’d be nice if shrillary returned all her WH loot before shrillary visits DAVY Jones lockbox. :-*

[Nifster]

Agreed

But this is key....Ignore all media

Get Out The Vote

[ConservaTeen]

True, her ads here are just 'Don't vote for Trump's ads. Nothing in her ads are saying what she'll do.

Again, maybe if voters knew what her plans are, she'd be losing more.

[ConservaTeen]

True, her ads here are just 'Don't vote for Trump's ads. Nothing in her ads are saying what she'll do.

Again, maybe if voters knew what her plans are, she'd be losing more.

[truth_seeker]

So does this poll work as a moving average, based on 400 polled every day?

If so then the Cruz endorsement would take 7 days to reach maximum impact, agreed?

I think they Cruz element, could contribute 3-5 points when fully measured. Hope that is correct.

Democrats/Hillary side must be very worried now, probably calling Bill Weld (maybe even Reefer-dude Johnson), etc.