Posted on 09/25/2016 12:16:39 AM PDT by NYRepublican72
Trump with a huuugeee net-two point day to push the lead back up to 4.
Trump 46.4 (+1.1%) Clinton 42.3 (-1.0%)
Almost out of the margin of error.
Four days later, Trump's lead is down to 1.4%. I cannot figure out how Hillary was able to gain that much in this poll over that short span. Now, two days after that drop, the lead is back to 4.1% for Trump. Wanting so much to believe this is where the race is, it's hard to latch onto this poll with such a wide variation over a short period of time. Especially for Hillary, who seemingly has done little campaigning in the past month.
The way this poll works is that it’s based on intensity. Perhaps the Gennifer Flowers tweet energized the Donald’s supporters today and accounted for the shift.
I think the Ted Cruz endorsement of Trump on Friday was huge.
I think you will see Johnson’s begin to crater with Trump picking up the bulk of his support.
“Perhaps the Gennifer Flowers tweet energized the Donald’s supporters”
LOL.
The Cruz endorsement also helped.
NY!!!
TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PENCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
RUDY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NEWT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sessions!!!!
The men that will put our country back together again!!! :) :) :)
she looks 600 years old and that on the good side.
Oh no!
The two people with Johnson signs, in my area, will be devastated!
I believe this group uses a rolling average. They have 3000 people in the poll but only poll about 200 of them each day. So it takes roughly 2 weeks before they go back and poll the same people again. Because each day is only a small sample size, it may be susceptible to larger daily swings (esp if they weigh the more recent responses more heavily, or, if there is something in the news that would push people to one or the other candidate). I suspect it should be slower to move based on news events because it would take several days of 200 responses before a large shift in preference could influence the numbers shown in the entire group of 3000. Overall it should be great for spotting trends. I am unsure how well it will do in predicting outcomes but it sure is an interesting, new way to poll.
Ignore all media
Get Out The Vote
The methodology guarantees wide swings. While they use a large pool to draw from on any given day the only ask 400 people
It is possible they weigh the more recent responses more heavily than the older responses. This outfit polls the same 3000 people, 200 each day. If they weigh recent responses more heavily then it is possible to see bigger swings day to day. Otherwise the only explanation I can think of is that once in a while they will get an “outlier” group of 200 who are very heavily in favor of one or the other so great that it pushes the average. If they expect that of 200 people it should break roughly 100 to 100, but instead that small sample came out 150 to 50 for Hillary, this extra 50 people would represent a 1.6% swing overall. But, that would not be representative, it is too small a sample size and it is way outside all the other samples. So the tracking number could move in the short term from something like this, but if it is an outlier it will soon show a reversion to the mean - which is what it appears to have done. The mean shows an advantage to Trump among the entire group and that advantage has held for over 2 weeks, long enough that they have basically polled everyone in the group at least once. This increases confidence in the results, as well as the trend.
I believe it is about 400 per day and they poll over a 7 period not a 14 day period.
It is possible that they weigh the most recent day's poll heavier but I doubt it.
Interestingly, if you analyze the day to day changes you find that some days are much for favorable to Trump than Clinton and some are more favorable to Hillary.
Trump's best days: Thur-Fri-Sat-Sun. Hillary wins Mon-Tue-Wed. But Trumps good days are better than Hillary's.
“Many believe this was the impact of Hillary’s health issues and subsequently being tossed into a van like a side of beef”
I tend to think of it more like a mangled chunk of roadkill being tossed into a dump truck.
If the original groups assigned by day are unbalanced (not representative of population), then this sort of pattern will emerge. Think of it as a tire that threw a wheel weight - it spins eccentrically.
Throw in a few weakly committed voters and the warp could be even greater (unless those shifty voters run counter).
This poll is more entrail examining, hocus pocus to impress those with no knowledge of statistical processes. Basically stupid people looking for a sign in tea leaves. Of course “journalists” are the prime example of this. “Report” om something new and exciting - whether it has any validity or not.
SHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
The prevailing FReeper view is that Sen. Cruz endorsement didn’t matter. Lord knows I’m not a fan of the Senator, but I appreciate the endorsement and am thankful for it.
The Donald is on the way back up because of the recent terrorist attacks, the riots and the un-American anti-pledgers. People see the way the country is heading and it isn’t pretty. Of course, why any American would vote for Clinton makes one just shake their head.
He should have just made the endorsement and stayed quiet. Instead, now he’s whining about how bad Trump is. He can’t have it both ways. I think the endorsement may help Trump, but it’s not going to help Ted in the long run unless he just shuts up. He’s looking like a whiner.
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