Trump makes big gains in latest...poll of Pa. voters [Hitlery Lead in Pennsylvania Down to 2]

McAll.com ^ | 9/24/16 | Laura Olson

[SoFloFreeper]

On the eve of the first presidential debate, a new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows a narrow gap between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump amid rising support for Trump within his own party....

In a four-way matchup, Clinton leads by 2 points, at 40 percent to Trump's 38 percent. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson dropped to 8 percent — down from 14 percent a week ago — and Green Party nominee Jill Stein went from 5 to 3 percent.

[phoneman08]

Didn’t realize that the black vote was that small. She’s toast!

[Flavious_Maximus]

This is the same poll that gave Clinton a 9 point lead just three days ago.

So what has happened in the last 3 days to have Trump surging?

[jennychase]

Gore was not a female.

[Rennes Templar]

On election night, I’m seeing an all red map, save for a NY, Ca, IL and OR.

[map]

“Trump will win PA.”

If you are correct, Trump will win it all.

[tennmountainman]

Go Trump!

[SoFloFreeper]

Don’t count your chickens. Pa hasn’t gone for a Republican since 1988. Long time in the wilderness.

[goldstategop]

He’ll win the Philly and Pitts suburbs.

In early October, we’ll check again the numbers out of bellwether Luzerne.

Last time, he was ahead there by +17.

[bigbob]

I’ve figured the 3rd party voters would shift to Trump as they become more comfortable with him. Which should happen after the debate.

[Helicondelta]

Ipsos Reuters has Trump ahead in PA. It has a much better track record than this Muhlenberg College poll. Never heard about it before.

[SamAdams76]

I agree. Both Johnson and Stein got less than one percent of the vote nationally in 2012 and in PA they also were both under one percent. That they will even get 8 and 3 percent respectively is laughable. By election day, 99 percent of the vote will be between Trump and Crooked Hillary.

Turnout in 2012 was low compared to 2008 in PA. Obama beat Romney by around 5 per cent on the strength of the urban areas of Philly and Pittsburgh. Elsewhere, it was mostly a Romney rout.

This year, we will have a very energized Trump vote and Trump is making inroads in the urban areas as evidenced by his big rally just outside Philadelphia the other night.

If you take the registered Republicans and add them with the Independents (Unaffiliated), they outnumber the registered Democrats. Many of the registered Democrats, especially in coal country and other blue collar areas of the state will choose Trump. Many Democrat men will vote for Trump even though they might still vote Dem further down the ballot.

In other words, while PA has not voted for a Republican president since 1988, this is a very winnable state for Trump this year.

[IVAXMAN]

oBAMA only won by 5% over Romney.

So if Hillary loses 3% of her support and Trump gains 3% over what Romney got, then he wins. And early ballots in other states suggest democrat turnout will be way less probably much less than 3% from 2012.

[goldstategop]

True.

Trump however seems to have struck gold with Keystone State voters.

I didn’t see Jeb or Cruz winning there. Trump is about to pull off the feat.

[af_vet_1981]

People parked their votes with them to see how things were going.

Most of them will go for Trump and the rest will stay home.

Nate Silver's 538 is projecting Johnson will end up with 7%; I think Cruz' endorsement helps; I wish Kasich and Bush would honor their word and support the GOP nominee. A united GOP electorate can win. Pray without ceasing that God will be merciful and grant us President Trump and Vice President Pence and that they will lead with wisdom, understanding, and knowledge from above.

[af_vet_1981]

I hope Trump gets 3 million plus votes.

[MIA_eccl1212]

I am tired of the narrative... “trump makes gains in Pennsylvania” Hillary only ahead by x.x%”...

and I can point to a dozen different polls that said the same thing, exactly... just last week, last month or even last year... and polls where he was ahead by five or more, a few weeks or months ago.

if he is not ahead, significantly.. then he has made NO IMPROVEMENT in PA...

in reality... I suspect he is ahead by at least 10 points in PA... and the powers that be are using this recycled push poll crap... to try and get us frustrated over no apparent movement...

when she drops dead from her disease on national television, that will be the end of her. until then... I will believe no polls.

[Verginius Rufus]

Obama’s statewide plurality in 2012 was about 300,000. His plurality in Philadelphia was about 500,000. So Romney won the rest of the state outside Philadelphia. (Of course, not every county.)

[goldstategop]

Silver is an idiot.

Republicans are coming home to Trump and Democrats are looking at a candidate who can’t win.

Hillary’s biggest problem isn’t with swing voters; its with her own disgruntled and demoralized base.

[SoFloFreeper]

Just looked at Pennsylvania’s gov’t site.

From what I gleaned, 48.7% of registered voters are Democrat.

37.8% are Republicans.

13.4% are No Party Affiliation or Other Party.

So Trump really has to appeal across all lines to win. Carrying 100% of the Republicans (assuming a motivated turnout on both sides of course) is not enough.

[map]

“I wish Kasich and Bush would honor their word and support the GOP nominee.”

I wouldn’t hold my breath. Trump will prevail with or without the democrat collaborators.