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The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll (T: 45.4, C: 43)
cesrusc.org ^ | 9/21/16

Posted on 09/22/2016 3:42:54 AM PDT by PapaBear3625

see chart at site

(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; clinton; elections; polls; trump
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To: xzins

This poll also reflects a normalization after some responded emotionally to the Crook’s “seizure/collapse”. This is to be expected. This is why the effects of specific events shouldn’t be measured until they are “baked into the cake” and a few weeks have passed.


21 posted on 09/22/2016 4:17:26 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist (Government is best which governs least.)
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To: Helicondelta

We are having the polling obsession that we always seem to get this time of year. At this point, all we can say is that both candidates have a roughly equal chance. That’s the best that Trump could have expected for now.


22 posted on 09/22/2016 4:28:00 AM PDT by djpg
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To: KavMan

With $145mm in ads, plus a media that’s non-stop in overdrive trying to destroy Trump and spin every Hillary negative into a positive, takes its toll.. Surprised he’s still standing . Of the 16 candidates, no one else would be within 10 points of her... He needs to blanket the airwaves with ads already to stay competitive


23 posted on 09/22/2016 4:33:25 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: xzins

5. Hillary can’t let a day pass without screaming and throwing something ceramic. Bring out the ex-Secret Service agents.
6. Hillary launched an impulsive and illegal war to overthrow Libya and destabilize an entire nation, also leading to 4 dead Americans


24 posted on 09/22/2016 4:41:50 AM PDT by ReaganGeneration2
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To: PapaBear3625

Need a bigger lead


25 posted on 09/22/2016 4:46:30 AM PDT by Ray76
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To: Theodore R.

Media have to have polls which create the impression of a “horse race” between the major candidates. Otherwise, no clicks on article links, viewers for cable news or listeners to radio news and comment. The purpose of the polls is twofold: 1. Shape voter opinions and 2. Attract readers, viewers or listeners to MSM outlets.


26 posted on 09/22/2016 4:46:51 AM PDT by TheConservativeBanker
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To: KavMan

Agree. Clinton is AWOL from the campaign trail.
Trump is working his butt off, as he always does.


27 posted on 09/22/2016 4:49:29 AM PDT by tennmountainman ("Prophet Mountainman" Predicter Of All Things RINO...for a small pittance)
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To: TheConservativeBanker

True.


28 posted on 09/22/2016 4:50:31 AM PDT by Robert A Cook PE (I can only donate monthly, but socialists' ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: PapaBear3625

This is the reason for the decline. They decided to change their methodology.

Update: As of Monday September 19th, the Daybreak Poll’s charts will reflect a change in the way we compute the “area of uncertainty” represented by the gray band in each chart. This change means that candidate votes that are about 5 or 6 percentage points apart will be shown to be statistically significant (depending on sample size and how much variation there is in the voting). Our previous calculations required an interval of +/5.5 percentage points for significance in our election forecast, which we have determined was too conservative. We have adjusted the interval in the charts, and in the data provided in the poll’s csv files accordingly.


29 posted on 09/22/2016 4:54:26 AM PDT by jpeg82
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To: Theodore R.
I'm not going to dismiss polls — that would be foolhardy — but here's something to keep in mind. I watched HRC’s rally in Florida yesterday. The WashPo actually wrote a fair article about the rally, noting the “unusual” choice HRC made in making people with disabilities the focus of the rally. It was an unusual rally, alright, for someone within a few weeks of running for President of the USA. It seemed clear to me that HRC’s handlers wanted to stand her next to a profoundly handicapped woman for the whole rally to contrast HRC herself with the woman, as in: look how strong and healthy HRC is! The content of HRC’s remarks was all estrogen-drenched lefty stuff: black people are mistreated by police, disabled people are undervalued by everybody, rich people hog up all the resources. I don't recall any talk about terrorism. And this rally follows one she cancelled in NC and is after a weekend of terrorism in NY and NJ. My point is that the polls may show a tight race or even show HRC in the lead, yet why is she NOW pandering to groups that she surely has in the bag? And doing so, knowing that she is going to alienate men? (I'm a woman and nearly threw up watching this treacly rally; no guy would have made it through the whole thing.) I think HRC’s campaign is nervous...so keep that in mind when you read about some of these polls. I suspect people simply aren't telling pollsters the truth. Between the recent terror attacks in NYC and this state of emergency in NC, I have a hard time believing most voters want to elect someone who is choosing to focus on hugging people in wheelchairs right now.

P.S> I have a special needs child, so I am NOT mocking the handicapped. If anything, I thought HRC’s use of them yesterday was exploitative.

30 posted on 09/22/2016 4:57:17 AM PDT by utahagen
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To: DrPretorius
At this point, there appears to be no way to get the thumb suckers and bed wetters here at FR to ever understand or admit that the polls are pure unadulterated bullshiite. Trump is not now, nor has he ever been, behind in this race, since the beginning of the primaries to this very day. Any poll that asserts otherwise is complete and utter bullshiite.

I believe the feeling comes from the terror of a Hillary presidency. There are days I am confident that Trump will win. Other days, doubt creeps in as I picture what could happen if the Benghazi Butcher cheats her way to the White House.

It's all fear based.

31 posted on 09/22/2016 5:01:58 AM PDT by CAluvdubya (<---has now left CA for NV, where God/guns have not been outlawed! She's done and he's won!)
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To: jpeg82

Its risky for a pollster to get too far from the pack or show some sort of tremendous blowout. With Trump showing up 7 points ahead previously they will change things. The polls represent the odds of each candidate winning. It isn’t safe for the pollster to allow his polling to heavily favor one candidate.


32 posted on 09/22/2016 5:20:09 AM PDT by hopespringseternal
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To: PapaBear3625

Yikes!!! Numbers are going the wrong way


33 posted on 09/22/2016 5:28:35 AM PDT by jokemoke
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To: BlueStateRightist

The closer we get to the election, the less time we have after an attack to respond to it.


34 posted on 09/22/2016 5:29:28 AM PDT by xzins ( Free Republic Gives YOU a voice heard around the globe. Support the Freepathon!)
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To: Flick Lives

She has disappeared that’s why


35 posted on 09/22/2016 5:35:03 AM PDT by ballplayer (hvexx NKK c bmytit II iyijjhihhiyyiyiyi it iyiiy II i hi jiihi ty yhiiyihiijhijjyjiyjiiijyuiiijihyii)
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To: PapaBear3625

It’s all good, folks.

Trump is +5 in the Rasmussen today! :-)


36 posted on 09/22/2016 5:37:05 AM PDT by ScottinVA
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To: PapaBear3625

This morning’s news put Trump at +5 in NC. Which is more in line with what I’d expect.


37 posted on 09/22/2016 5:45:14 AM PDT by wbill
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To: wbill

Rasmussen has Trump up by 5. His biggest lead there.


38 posted on 09/22/2016 5:46:39 AM PDT by Beeman
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To: PapaBear3625
The most troubling part of this poll is the question "Who do you think will win?" Hillary has always been far ahead in that measure, meaning that a large number of Trump voters don't think he will win.

I don't want that perception to become the reality.

39 posted on 09/22/2016 5:49:59 AM PDT by Tanniker Smith (Rome didn't fall in a day, either.)
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To: xzins

The sad fact is that about 5% of the population votes emotionally. So events that occur close to Election Day have outsized effect. I truly believe that Storm Sandy had a large effect on the 2012 election. Natural disasters and terrorist attacks strangely prompt the populace to rally around the current party in leadership. So, in fact, the terrorist attacks, while the result of Obama and Democrats failed policies, actually (short term) help the party in power. That’s partly why Clinton has recovered in this poll (and People’s Pundit) this week.


40 posted on 09/22/2016 6:05:07 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist (Government is best which governs least.)
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