Nate Silver: Trump surges from 3% to 48% chance of winning

Washington Examiner ^ | 9/20/2016 | Paul Bedard

[GilGil]

The latest vote projection from elections guru Nate Silver has Republican Donald Trump just six electoral votes short of winning and one point away from equaling Hillary Clinton's popular vote.

The newest Five Thirty Eight survey Trump at 264 and Clinton at 272, two more than needed. It's the closest in recent weeks.

[GilGil]

This election is over. The odds are overwhelming that Trump wins al though Nate silver is a snake in the grass. He did the same thing in the primaries. Trump had no chance and all of the sudden Trump was winning.

[needmorePaine]

It’s a joke to say he was at 3%. His chances have never been that low.

[TigerLikesRooster]

We need a couple of more blowing-up-in-their-face moments, like her collapse in plain view, to be sure.

[No_More_Harkin]

Nate will predict “Trump has 100%” chance of winning, come November 9th.

Nate has also predicted there is a 0-100% chance of rain today.

Who cares about a constantly moving target?

[fluorescence]

Many freepers have said for months that pollsters who want to keep their reputations will be forced closer to the truth as the election gets close.

[GrandJediMasterYoda]

I’m not sure he will win as things stand now, especially with the voter fraud that WILL happen, but that could all change next week if he hands Hillary her fat cankle supported arse in the first debate, just exposes her like an atomic bomb. That first debate is sooooo important because they estimate a third of the country will be watching. Afterwards it will be much less in the other debates. He can turn it all around on the first and get enough support to win even with election fraud of which I have absolutEly no doubt this current criminal administration is assisting.

[GilGil]

Many freepers have said for months that pollsters who want to keep their reputations will be forced closer to the truth as the election gets close.
_________________

True

[KavMan]

Clown Nate is soooo conflicted

He so wants to give Hillary 99% chance of winning but he also knows Professor Helmut Norpoth’s prediction of a TRUMP win so he has to thread lightly LOL

[HandyDandy]

I'd just like to take the opportunity here to remind everybody that this election has "global" implications and therefore is flooded with "global" interests and influences. This is we the people vs globalism. Think big. Think massive fraud on a global scale. This is no mere petty local politics of a good and solid American vs a moonbat. I do hope that we are realizing that is the spin of a false narrative. This one is for all the marbles. TPTB are fully cognizant of what is at stake in this one. They are all in on both sides.

Trump or Bust

[LS]

Fox, WSJ, NBC, maybe Monmouth and Suffolk will get closer, but they won’t get Trump in the lead. They will have him 1-point down so it will keep their reputations intact.

[datricker]

Thats' odd some of us predicted Trump would win going away late August September - of LAST YEAR - what is with these so called experts, pundits and prognosticators - no better then Gypsy Madame Obscura.

It was obvious then he was the one person who could beat Clinton (assuming that she lives) and its obvious now.

She is toxic - Trump grows on people

[eekitsagreek]

I'd just like to take the opportunity here to remind everybody that this election has "global" implications and therefore is flooded with "global" interests and influences. This is we the people vs globalism.

Those who want their "free stuff" could care less about globalism. They want to be taken care of.

[Helicondelta]

“elections guru Nate Silver”

LOL.

Nate Silver is a joke.

His prediction from last year:

“If you want absurd specificity, I recently estimated Trump’s chance of becoming the GOP nominee at 2 percent.”

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

LOL

[marktwain]

It is the People vs the Elites.

The Elites include the old media most of Academe, many of the top wealthy, and all are globalists.

[GilGil]

Trump down 5 points going into the election and Trump wins. this is not even close.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Amazing how they always skew the samples... It’s always Clinton +1 or tied... Gotta keep the RCP average in Clinton’s favor... when it is close to tipping, ABC/Wash Post, or CBS/NYTimes comes out with a huge over-sampling of Ds to put her back in the lead... It’s all about controlling the narrative.

[Cboldt]

If Trump wins that debate, and by "win," I mean the public perception of him as president, compared with Crooked (not the usual "fact check" crap that passes for "winning" as the press plays score-keeper), Crooked will have to go on offense. That's won't work for her. She has to show her "human" and "deliberate" sides to make gains, and an angry half-true offensive campaign will cut her lead even more.

Trump won the Lauer Forum decisively.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Separately... Heck is up by 4 in the new Ras poll... Close to putting it out of reach. This, on top of Trump being up 3 in NV... looks like good news all around from that state.

[Lisbon1940]

These numbers are 538’s polls-plus forecast. Polls-only is slightly worse but getting better every day.

[goldstategop]

Matt Bevin-Alison Lundergran Grimes 2014.

Last polls before the election had Bevin down by 5.

He won by 10. It wasn’t close that year in KY.

Ditto for Donald J. Trump.