Florida Voter Registration Statistics (9/19/16 vs 10/1/12 vs 10/1/08 vs 10/1/04

Florida Elections Division ^ | 9/20/16 | me

[Ravi]

9/19/16 Florida registered voters: D-4,744,790; R-4,469,148; I-3,302,288

10/1/12 Florida registered voters: D-4,814,412; R-4,261,823; I-2,930,000

10/1/08 Florida registered voters: D-4,791,642; R-4,100,209; I-2,496,000

10/1/04 Florida registered voters: D-4,291,769; R-3,917,788; I-2,175,000

[Ravi]

FYI. Obama's margin of victory in 2012 was 73,200. His margin of victory in 2008 was 204,000. Bush's margin of victory in 2004 was 381,000. Interesting factoids.

[Ravi]

FYI

[HarleyLady27]

Look at the I count...those are the ones voting for Trump!!!

[Ravi]

Yes the independents do pop out at you at first glance.

[rigelkentaurus]

So, the basis for a FL poll should be 38D 36R 26I - and then, maybe, adjusted turnout / enthusiasm.

[Ravi]

Yep. that’s what I would do. But big Monmouth does it so much better. /s

[Behind the Blue Wall]

Given these numbers, it doesn’t seem possible that it could be close. Trump is up with independents nearly 2 to 1 in every poll I’ve seen and there’s an enthusiasm gap in favor of the GOP.

[Ravi]

Independents in FL probably lean R but not severe R.

[AmusedBystander]

After this election, the pollsters will have to use D,R,I and T. The Trump vote is going to be yuge!

[No Socialist]

Florida would have more independent voters if they had open primaries. I would be independent as a protest registration, even though I would never vote for a democrat.

[cowboyusa]

That's a shift of 250,000 votes without the Indies!

[Ravi]

Net gain of 270000 for GOP from 2012 to 2016.

[Vince Ferrer]

That's a shift of 250,000 votes without the Indies!

Without indies, and without the enthusiasm gap that will strongly favor Trump.

[TonyInOhio]

Interestingly, the 2012 Exit Polls in Florida showed the self-identified party ID breakdown as 35/33/33, D/R/I. They also showed the breakdown by gender as 55% female, 45% male, indicating Romney did a poor job turning out white Republicans, and Obama did a fine job turning out white women.

If anything, Trump will do significantly better amongst men than Romney did, and if that’s the case, I think he wins Florida by a couple of points.

[cowboyusa]

He's also up 15.4 percent in Luzerne County! He is going to blow Clinton away in the Lehigh Valley. He should focus on Delaware, Bucks and Chester Counties. Montgomery is too left wing.

[Steven Scharf]

Thank you for posting the complete picture. I did some anaylasis on the registration data vs population.

-—————————2004——————2016*————Increase
Florida-———17,397,161-———20,555,082-——3,157,921
D———————4,291,769————4,744,790-———453,021
R———————3,917,788————4,469,148-———551,360
I———————2,175,000————3,302,288-——1,127,288
Total-————10,384,557-———12,516,226-——2,131,669
% of pop-—————59.69%-—————60.89%

Percent has gone up slightly, but interestingly only 60%actually register to vote.

* I calulated the 2016 pop by taking the 5 years average of pop increases for 2010 to 2015 as the 2016 pop estimate fro Florida has not been released.

I also learned that Florida is now the 3rd largest state by population.

[Ravi]

Very well done!

[LS]

So ANY poll that does not look like this:
D=37%
R=35.7%
I=26.3%

is simply crap. This adds 274,000 MORE net new R gains/D losses since 2012. If Trump merely gets 52% of Indies, he would have 193,000 more voters. At 85% for both Rs and Ds, Trump should finish with about 4.7-4.9m votes in FL. (10% of Ds, 85% Rs, 52% of Is after allowing that only 62% of Is will vote).

[Dave W]

Keep in mind there are a lot of widows in Florida. There are always more women voting than men, but especially in Florida.