The Trump Surge

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/the_trump_surge ^

[DOC44]

Let us make our view perfectly clear: We still believe that Hillary Clinton is more likely than Trump to win the election, and she still has the advantage in the Electoral College. Yet it is equally apparent that she has stumbled badly in recent weeks, fueling Trump’s polling advance. And the Republican nominee has more pathways to 270 electoral votes than he did before. Clinton disappeared for long stretches before Labor Day to do fundraising and failed to define any overriding positive message about what a Hillary Clinton presidency would mean. Then came the “basket of deplorables” gaffe (which some believe might actually help Clinton with her party base) and the lie by omission about her pneumonia, a serious condition that deserves scrutiny. Instead of transparency, there was a bold gambit by Clinton to avoid any health disclosure that might give credence to longtime, far-right theories that she was at death’s door. This ill-advised error reinforced the public’s view that Clinton is secretive and untruthful. At the same time, two other developments helped Trump. His new (third) campaign team, especially Kellyanne Conway, seems to have been able to force some discipline on the unpredictable billionaire. The number of middle-of-the-night tweets has diminished, the use of scripts and the teleprompter is up, and Trump is doing events other than giant rallies filled with true believers who encourage his worst instincts — though he continues to make outrageous statements with some frequency, such as Friday’s suggestion that Clinton’s Secret Service team should be disarmed. (Almost any other candidate would be disqualified by the kinds of remarks Trump has offered. In this sense, there truly is a double standard in media coverage that benefits Trump.)

[wastoute]

I think they believe that the famous Rat “ground game” of which outright fraud is no small part will cover any small Trump advantage in key states like Ohio, Florida, etc. (and in recent cycles VA, North Carolina) that they retain their smug confidence even when the poll says “Trump leads” by a few percent.

As we have discussed here in recent days several events have occurred that strongly suggest their confidence is misplaced. One, the door to door rally in Ohio where NO ONE SHOWED UP. Two, with 20% or more of blacks supporting Trump they won’t have 110% precincts in Ohio or PA.

[ModelBreaker]

“...though he continues to make outrageous statements with some frequency, such as Friday’s suggestion that Clinton’s Secret Service team should be disarmed.”

I can’t wrap my mind about why this is outrageous. I guess they are so determined not to see the hypocrisy of our Ruler’s gun control stance, that any approach to the topic gets screamed down. This is especially true for the left portion of the ruling class as they think of themselves as being for the little guy. Disarming the little guy while they run around with bodyguards is a topic they just have to stay away from in their heads.

[ncalburt]

Larry S is the sleaziest paid Dem hack in the business .
He got caught red handed hiding his employment for Jim Webb campaign and peddling that tired Macca made up scam while scamming his phony push poll crap on every cable and radio show .

In 2004, this same vile Left wing con man predicting W Bush would never get reelected .

This clown is a pure Horse manure .
The fact this poll firm peddling his lies does not reflect much confidence in their polling data.

[AndyJackson]

Too many words for us unedumacated Deplorables.

[MNnice]

Larry Sabato is a democrat hack.

[norwaypinesavage]

Don’t bother to read it, here’s a summary: “Ignore all the data, here’s what we hope is true.”

[rightwingcrazy]

“...though he continues to make outrageous statements with some frequency, such as Friday’s suggestion that Clinton’s Secret Service team should be disarmed.”

IOW, “I couldn’t tell that he was making a point about her hypocrisy. I’m just that stupid”, or “I won’t recognize that he was making a point about her hypocrisy. I’m just that manipulative”.

[catnipman]

worthless, indeed:

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/larry-sabato-donald-trump-real-candidates/2015/08/13/id/669925/

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/205865-larry-sabatos-crystal-ball-portends-potential-democratic-blowout-presidential-election

[fortheDeclaration]

He meant to say that he hopes Hillary wins.