Posted on 09/15/2016 1:03:30 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2
IMO, the health issue. I also think the subgroup sample size is pretty small, so a few people shifting in this group will cause a significant change in the average. The most stable group, and the group that I think is the largest, is the 35-64 age group. This group shows a significant shift in Trump's favor too.
-- I'll bet it settles back to baseline like the other one. --
It may, but I think there is a new baseline, maybe around 10% rather than 4%. Last time the uptick was one day only, persisted for the 7 days until that sample rolled off. This time there are three consecutive (and substantial) upticks for Trump, putting three "Trump-favorable" samples in the 7-day average.
SUBGROUP??? You is a racist, deplorable {but somewhat adorable}.
Ahhhhhhhh (comfort sigh). I embrace the deplorable. But I can sure sympathize with the rest of my friends on the Trump Train, which Hillary says are “desperate.” She sees two baskets of Trump supporters, deplorable and desperate.
MSM has been portraying Cankles in a positive light since day one with false narratives & manufactured stories . Trump continues to gain & he will be elected President! Remember, FUD sucks!
Vote Trump 2016
Drudge Report is now carrying this 6-point lead as red banner. VERY NICE TO WAKE UP TO!
With respect to the health issue the MSM has been doing that very hard since Sunday. It's not working. YouTube is working. People are not buying the pneumonia story. They are believing what they see with their own eyes for a change. It's refreshing.
If you look on YouTube for the videos on the Hillary Collapse you find somewhere between 25 million and perhaps 40 million views in 4 days. That's a big deal. People are paying attention to this and it is driving the polls. Even Nate Silver admits it although somewhat reluctantly.
Outstanding analysis. Thank you.
The real reason for HRC being off the campaign trail this week was not to “recuperate” from a bout of pneumonia (her handlers know what’s really wrong with her and she can’t be cured), but to lie low for a few days and let this thing blow over. Then she can re-emerge, make herself look good in a few carefully stages appearances, and declare that last weekends incident is “old new.”
Yes, it will be the “Oh, this is old news” gambit that the Clintons are famous for. She will likely never have to take a question about the events of last Sunday.
But thanks to the Internet, the video will always be out there on demand for all to see. That cannot be put back in the bottle.
I think it’s the small AA sample size we’re seeing but I don’t rule out the Hillary medical thing either. It may be that her public collapse provides a socially acceptable “excuse” to express a preference for Trump. I could see a leaning towards Trump in some members of that subgroup that’s only “released” when the excuse threshold is met, like when Trump has a good visit in Detroit or Hillary collapses. A threshold effect like this could explain the abruptness, maybe.
The other thing I’ll mention is that the previous blip didn’t settle all the way back down. The new stable level was a little higher than before the blip. It was subtle but it was there. So maybe these transient episodes reflect some sort of change in basic thinking in the group even if they do tend to settle. Gonna be interesting to see how this upward move resolves compared to the earlier blip.
Two trends seem to be occurring.
Trump is picking up a larger share of registered Republicans (i.e., he’s winning over the doubters).
Clinton’s 41% basically reflects the base. She’s not getting Independents.
Rule of thumb (and I wonder you can employ any of those in this election) is that undecideds break for the challenger, not the incumbent. Clinton would be considered the incumbent in this election. This, however, didn’t happen in 2012. The undecideds broke last minute for Nobama and that’s why so many polls got it wrong.
Like many groups, blacks look to their peers for approval. As more and more blacks express support for Trump, it encourages others to take a second look. His visit to Detroit was powerful, and has a ripple effect.
https://www.scribd.com/mobile/document/324094160/CBS-NYT-AM-presidential-poll-toplines-Sept-15-2016#from_embed
She's like... some dictator in a bunker somwhere, (do you like how I avoided Godwin's law right there?) demented, delusional and in denial, still ordering campaign apparatchiks around to go tell this, that or another lie like Dr. Bardack did yesterday. (Oh, did this chick ever make a mistake getting mixed up with the wrong crowd or what, hoping for a big payday?)
And why not, she still has a majority of the media on her side, at least today.
That is so true. I have it on my desktop and watch it often trying to figure out what the metal object is that drops to the pavement near her right foot just as they start dragging her off the curb.
Shazam!
Setting up another “comeback and surge” for Hitlery once she shows her face and resumes bashing half the American voters. This narrative is old and tired much like the Dem candidate.
This poll highlights the media bias in presenting Hillary as the de-facto President in astonishing clarity. If you look at the internals, despite solidly leading by 5.9%, - outside the margin of error - the same people polled believe Hillary is going to win by 6.6% - again, outside the margin of error.
That can ONLY be because of the biased coverage praising her and trashing Trump 24/7/365.
“This narrative is old and tired much like the Dem candidate.”
Not if they use her stand in. She looks fresh and energetic.
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