Posted on 09/06/2016 9:35:38 AM PDT by LS
1142 Likely Voters
Trump had a spurt on 9/3, which seems an outlier but hasn't trailed since 9/29 and has inched up. Fourth poll to show him with a lead (CNN, Reuters, USC). All but Retuers are 2-point leads.
I don't have UPI . . . anyone? Bueller?
Trump IMHO has an inherent functional lead of 4-5 on the low end, and always has had it... I have never once believed Hillary to be any closer than 2 points below Trump, though I know the polls have been showing otherwise.
Election day I expect at least a 5-8 point win for Trump nationally. Something along the lines of 42-43 to 47-50 with about 7-11ish going to the various 3rd party guys.
The gap could be larger, depending on whether Hillary hemorrhages more supporters, which the latest polling does seem to indicate, that even part of her ardent base is deciding enough is enough with her corruption and crimes... and starting to fall away. Up until the latest round of polling her D support had been pretty solid and consistent... most recent round shows her losing support among D’s... they may come back home before November... but if she is truly starting to lose support among the D base... she won’t be able to even get 42-43%.
I’ve been telling folks that the only thing with more hacks than Hillary’s email server is Hillary herself!
Saw this at PEC:
“• NBC/SurveyMonkey poll: Trump with 6 points lead
September 6, 2016
• New NBC News poll shows Trump trailing by 6 points
September 6, 2016”
LOL! A 12 point difference in the two polls (different methods, etc.).
Crazy.
I think that poll was from 2015.
I agree with some of this.
Trump will handily take FL,AZ and I expect OH, PA, WI, MI, IN and IA as well.. though I do think OH is the most likely place where fraud could change that state... since the machinations used in 12 there were massive and are still in place.... Which is why I hope this election does not come down to trying to thread a needle and Ohio is needed for the win.... Yes, PA will have fraud in Philly as always but it won’t be nearly the size and scope that the D’s have shown they can pull of in OH. Honestly I think Trump will take OH with a big enough lead even massive fraud won’t change its outcome, but that is one state where I know if it comes down to a threading of a needle, the D’s can put up massive fraud numbers to keep in their way. (Personally I don’t think its going to be that close).
I also expect Trump to handily take NC....
VA is going to be interesting, N VA is entrenched in the existing corrupt system, so it may be able to overwhelm the state.. but I think enthusiasm gap among Trump supporters throughout the state, and non existent enthusiasm for Clinton will likely put VA in the R column... but if there were a state that may not flip... pocket book voting in NoVa could certainly motivate more folks to show up and vote for Hillary there than in most of the rest of the nation.
MN is certainly not like to go R... this is the sole state to vote for Mondale for crying out loud.. If Trump get MN... just stick a fork in Hillary, she loses MN she is going to lose a whole lot of states no one would think a D could lose.
My general belief is any state that dems during a typical election cycle do not win by over 5 points, Trump will take... and any state that typically take between 5 and 10 points will be considered battleground before the end of the month... assuming no huge shock coming out of the debates.
I concur and what has been been bad for Hillary is the loss of her base as these polls have oversampled Dems. Trump could be even higher than you suggest.
You can follow the links to see my analysis of the last election. The graphics links in past articles are dead now, but they were probability curves and animated map GIFs showing weekly state changes.
-PJ
Your take on VA is accurate.
Did you see that in the CNN poll Trump is up . . . 20 (!!) with indpendents?
My original estimate was that Trump would win 55% of Indies but if he wins 65-70%? He would get probably 61-62m total votes and win by 6-7m.
Monster Vote!......................
Romney only won Independents by five points in 2012. If Trump is ahead by twenty, with room to improve, we could have a landslide.
I just came back from lunch and the media is in deep deep denial.
Still pumping up Pickles(formerly known as cankles) and everything Trump is totally negative.
Yes. I figure at worst Trump gets Indies 55-45, but if he is 60-40, it’s over.
Is this her way of pandering to those with COPD?
COPD is indeed a major voting bloc. COPDLM, you know!
I think you’re right in Trump’s margin of victory but, the turnout will be interesting. Early/Absentee voting will tell us a lot. How many of 2012 early voters, will vote? How many are ‘new’ voters. Democrat turnout I think will be a bit lower, republican/ticked off voter turnout higher. So by the end of October we’ll be able to predict the final results.
I think that is 10,000 like the number of lakes they claim to have! Actually more like hundreds of thousands from what I hear.
Based upon what I've seen in Cedar-Riverside, aka "Little Mogadishu", I would guess 10,000 or more.
But nobody knows the actual number, and those who do know aren't talking.
Not sure if the Democrats and Republicans are ready for the change they will get with Trump. No more back room partisan deals. Obama may be exposed for his wrong doings. The media is on the take. They are going to try to prop up Grandma Hillary while riding the Hillary Plane in the sky.
You’re may be right. But I think a motivated base for lack of a better term, trumps all the obstacles in front of us. If the target is 62 million votes, let’s convince 62 million people to vote Trump. I’m a firm believer in phone calls for voter id and door knocking for persuasions. I’ve seen what it did for Gov. LePage. And Mayor Macdonald in Lewiston. Trump has 14 million primary voters. He should have the volunteers to bring his message to the people.
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