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"Anecdotal Evidence is Wrong"--or is it?
self | 8/23/2016 | LS

Posted on 08/23/2016 3:31:05 PM PDT by LS

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To: LS
A million votes cast with fiery enthusiasm will lose to a million and one votes cast with humdrum apathy.
21 posted on 08/23/2016 4:54:00 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: arthurus
When I was trained in the infantry there was a battle drill for what to do if caught in a point-blank ambush. The drill was to charge the enemy and fire.

Some soldiers made the most obvious objection...that in a point blank ambush, the likelihood would be that one would not have the opportunity to charge and fire back sense one is likely already going to be shot dead.

Of course the objection, though obvious, is foolish. There is no need for battle drills when you are dead.

22 posted on 08/23/2016 4:57:43 PM PDT by AndyTheBear (Hating Islam is the natural consequence of caring about people in the Middle East, including Muslims)
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To: conservatism_IS_compassion

What title of nobility did she receive? That is what that clause is about. It’s not about getting bags of cash. Even the founders knew they were not going to stop that.


23 posted on 08/23/2016 5:03:50 PM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: Lurkinanloomin

“Few signs or bumper stickers here in central Virginia, either way.”

I think what’s interesting here in northern Virginia, a blue part of the state, is the dearth of Hellary signs. I haven’t seen one in our neighborhood.


24 posted on 08/23/2016 5:10:49 PM PDT by VanShuyten ("a shadow...draped nobly in the folds of a gorgeous eloquence.")
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To: LS

I’m beginning to suspect that Romney, being part of the establishment, purposely lost the 2012 election - he was probably told to make sure and lose by doners.


25 posted on 08/23/2016 5:11:29 PM PDT by captain_dave
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To: captain_dave
I’m beginning to suspect that Romney, being part of the establishment, purposely lost the 2012 election - he was probably told to make sure and lose by doners.

Romney wanted to win.

He just didn't want to work very hard for it.

He thought it would just come to him (like so much else in life did), and if it didn't, it wasn't meant to be.

26 posted on 08/23/2016 5:14:43 PM PDT by x
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To: LS

My anecdotal evidence is that I only see “Hillary for Prison” bumper stickers but plenty of Trump/Pence ones.

Also, I live near and drove through Warwick NY last weekend. I saw plenty of Trump signs, no Hillary.

Warwick is a hippy dippy liberal town. Sure, it’s surrounded by farmers and conservatives, but in the town itself it is dominated by red diaper babies. Note, I’m talking in general here, there are certainly conservatives that live there, but a Republican trying to get elected in Warwick has a huge up hill climb.


27 posted on 08/23/2016 5:29:57 PM PDT by Malsua
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To: hinckley buzzard

Yep.


28 posted on 08/23/2016 5:38:54 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Pravious

I have not seen even one sign where I live. I did see one bumper sticker a wk ago. That’s it. Folks just keeping thoughts to themselves.


29 posted on 08/23/2016 5:43:06 PM PDT by ncpatriot
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To: Malsua
Warwick is a hippy dippy liberal town.
Yup, Sean Maloney is the Congressman in that district. His biggest claim to fame was when he "married" his boyfriend the "wedding" photographer got in trouble with the FAA for improperly flying the drone that took aerial shots of the reception. We lived in Pt Jervis. A few "artsy fartsy" types have been renovating the old buildings on Jersey Av along the RR tracks. there's also some overpriced boutiques in Florida and Sugar Loaf. At least the Warwick drive-in on Rt94 is still open.
30 posted on 08/23/2016 6:24:22 PM PDT by Impala64ssa (You call me an islamophobe like it's a bad thing.)
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To: LS

Excellent essay, thanks!


31 posted on 08/23/2016 6:45:01 PM PDT by Albion Wilde ("They only smear who they fear." --Diamond and Silk)
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To: LS

Lots of Trump visuals here in Southern California (vacationing). I’ve seen only 1 Hillary bumper sticker. VERY SURPRISING!

Stick a fork in her.


32 posted on 08/23/2016 6:46:35 PM PDT by PGalt
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To: LS

I think this might possibly be the one election where a high turnout might actually be really good. I think maybe a lot of folks are engaged who have never have been or haven’t been for a long time. I think most of those people will vote Trump. We’ll see I guess.

Freegards


33 posted on 08/23/2016 6:51:49 PM PDT by Ransomed
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To: LS

Ignore all media

Get Out The Vote


34 posted on 08/23/2016 6:55:16 PM PDT by Nifster (Ignore all polls. Get Out The Vote)
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To: stylin19a

They manufactured 400,000 votes in each of Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. Mr. 538 knew. Other pollsters didn’t.

In Ohio, Obama campaign even had extra ground game the last 3 weeks because even with 400,000 extra/minus from Romney, it was still looking close. In 2008, McCain didn’t campaign seriously, because the bipartisans wanted what came to be called Obamacare, so the US could go down the same path as Europe and Canada.

At least 1.5 million American stayed home, mostly evangelicals put off by Romney’s Mormon faith. Anyone who wants to run the numbers will get similar answers.

In an honest count, Hillary would hover at 38-40%, Johnson at 5-7%, Stein 2-4%, Trump 51-53%%. IOW, a landslide.


35 posted on 08/23/2016 7:18:40 PM PDT by bIlluminati (Who is Horatio Bunce?)
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To: stylin19a
<>I will always wonder where the 3.5 million Obama voters went and did they even really exist in 2008 ? No novelty factor in 2012. "The first black president" is a lot catchier than "the first black president to be reelected."
36 posted on 08/23/2016 7:26:35 PM PDT by Gil4 (And the trees are all kept equal by hatchet, ax and saw)
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To: LS
There IS a pretty big shift there, I think it's more than anecdotal, most polls show it.

I think you are underestimating the #nevertrumpers around though, I have my own anecdotal set of stories, there are a LOT of them.

I have talked several people off the ledge who were once #nevertrumpers, but I know a WHOLE LOT MORE! I also know a whole lot of people who may not like him as their first choice, but are going to vote for him anyway. Some enthusiastically.

This election is still in flux, so I am focusing on doing three different things:

First, shore up the base and those who will surely vote for Trump as long as the full court press from the MSM/internetoligarch complex doesn't work, so their media collusion does not discourage them or change their mind.

Second, change the minds of the #nevertrumpers and the #mightaswellbenevertrumpers. They can and should be talked off the ledge, if nothing else they can be shown just how bad Hillary is and will be, plus the Supreme Court in the balance (tell them about the choice of his judges). Bring this number down to irrelevant.

Third: Ridicule Hillary, and ridicule (softly if you can) those who are considering voting for the most incompetent (zero actual accomplishments), corrupt, most dishonest, most power hungry and greedy person to ever run for the presidency. Help them understand the shame and insanity of voting for that kind of person. Help them stay home on election day. Discourage them, make them feel sick at their nominee.

37 posted on 08/24/2016 4:57:34 AM PDT by Lakeshark (Trump. He stands for the great issues of the day. He's not Hillary. I love both these things.)
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To: phoneman08

does he get a slug of unseen votes

depending on a bunch of ‘unseen’ voters who typically don’t vote is delusional; Trump’s best strategy now is to continue to hone his populist style with a more refined presentation...

this has worked; never trumpers on another website I frequent were arguing passionately because some theought Trump’s latest speeches were darned good, and where was this Trump earlier...


38 posted on 08/24/2016 5:05:34 AM PDT by IrishBrigade
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To: Vermont Lt
What title of nobility did she receive? That is what that clause is about.
The “title” she received was that of benefactress. Her name is attached to any good works the foundation might putatively do.
no person holding any office of profit or trust under [the US], shall, without the consent of the Congress, accept of any present, emolument, office, or title, of any kind whatever, from any king, prince, or foreign state
It doesn’t say “title of nobility” exclusively, it says “title, of any kind whatever. It is a mandate for strict separation of US government from any foreign government. When you say, "of any kind whatever,” you are saying that you know people will try to fandangle, and that if they try to do it they are presumptively guilty of accepting bribery.
It’s not about getting bags of cash. Even the founders knew they were not going to stop that.
”Present or emolument” directly addresses getting bags of cash. Just because they could not even foresee the name “Hillary Clinton” - let alone pass a bill of attainder against her - does not mean that they did not pass a law against what she has done. They did. The intent could scarcely be clearer.

39 posted on 08/24/2016 7:24:15 AM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion ('Liberalism' is a conspiracy against the public by wire-service journalism.)
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