Pow: It's just a 2-point race, Clinton 38%, Trump 36%

Washington Examiner ^ | 8/16/2016 | Paul Bedard

[BigEdLB]

Beware bogus Monmouth poll from Florida. Not worth seperate thread. R+5, Hillary +9. Ludicrous. This is the narrative I was talking about pollsters making up stuff.

[GilGil]

Agreed!

[SoFloFreeper]

That is a poll for NEW YORK STATE.

[uncitizen]

Look at the discrepancy in the number of attendees at their respective rallies. The polls should be reflecting that.

These polls are meant to get us into the mindset that this is a close race so that when they steal it for HILLARY, it wI’ll be mainlined and nobody will be shocked.

Believe your own lying eyes instead of these fake polls.

[NoLibZone]

Better to have faked polls showing illary way up!

Then they will not feel the need to vote.

[GilGil]

I agree and pray they are so over confident that Hillary does not break 60 million as I expect.

[gdani]

Any polls that show Trump and HILLARY neck and neck are demonstrably bogus just based on the sheer number of people that attend their rallies.

If rally attendance was such an accurate indicator, Nader would have been president in 2000 as he routinely attracted thousands to his own.

[uncitizen]

It’s defintely a major factor indicating the relative level of support.

[jagusafr]

Gee, I was just listening to Hugh Hewitt and some “expert” this morning talking about how Trump basically can’t possibly come back from the yoooge hole he’s in.

How the hell are we supposed to take ANYBODY’S word for ANY of this?

[irish guard]

You and I have been on this site a long time. You know damn well what I meant about Zogby. For years everyone here used to complain about the Zogby "special sauce."

I believe the guy's polls are crap and have for years just like many others here at the FreeRepublic. Mocking people here about Zobgy? Only those who swallow his stuff without a bit of caution. He made his bones by predicting a presidential election late on election day after he got ahold of the early results of exit polls. Happened to hit the jackpot and since then, he's been wrong more than right. I'd love for his poll to be accurate, I just don't believe it until I see more polls within 2% in the next week. But you can say I suck.....it's still a free country and FreeRepublic still allows it.

[Sam Gamgee]

Hope so, but not looking good so far.

[edh]

“That isn’t being subversive. “

I’ve seen a lot of people ping admins claiming that they found “trolls” when these supposed “trolls” are making a rational claim that might be interpreted as some kind of remark against Trump. It happened here and there during the 2008 and 2012 elections, but it’s gone to the extreme this time around.

I questioned someone that claimed to have insider knowledge of Trump’s actual polling numbers ... that person flipped out and accused me of being some kind of “sleeper” Freeper (they didn’t do a good job checking out my posting history).

Overall, don’t pay to much attention to these types.

As for this poll, it seems to be confirming a trend that the seawitch’s numbers are falling back to “normal” and it’s a ridiculously close race at this point. That is NOT good for Clinton ... at all. As many have pointed out, she is a known quantity and her appeal to voters is going to be quite static. Trump is the exact opposite ... he has nowhere to go but up.

If Trump starts the final stretch of his campaign in two weeks (i.e. the 1st of September), the Dems aren’t going to know what hit them and you’ll start to see panic set in on their side. I also suspect you are going to see a lot of these yellowbelly GOPe people start to shut up once they see tangible results and start running to Trump (while I hate those maggots, they will help in the Northeast and in rustbelt states).

The media is having a field day right now since they can all but write their own narrative, but people that Trump needs to get out and vote aren’t exactly paying attention right now. It’s still summer. Once they start paying attention, Trump will be there be it TV ads or other campaign tools.

I’m of the opinion that this is his election to lose ... yeah, sometimes the polls make me nauseous and I question myself, but that doesn’t happen very often anymore. The only downside to this strategy that I can think of is that Hillary is rallying her base ... but she’s not doing a very good job of that if she’s kind of stuck in the mid 40s.

[reasonisfaith]

I think the initial motive is to hate dishonesty, which is a very good thing to do.

[Red Steel]

Liberal Monmouth U. used a predetermined list of voters of who they are going to call. No doubt in my mind they already know who those people are on the list and what they are likely going to say. They say so in their methodology. It's not a scientific random poll.

It's a form of busing them in for their polls.

[x]

That's because the poll gives Gary Johnson and Jill Stein as alternative choices.

A lot of voters aren't familiar with those candidates or don't have them on their ballots, so they'll go with one of the major party candidates.

Most likely that widens Clinton's lead.

[WalterSkinner]

..Trump’s internal polls show something very different I’m guessing...

[nightmarewhileawake]

... Feeling cold is a side effect of that rat poison blood thinner Coumadin warfarin medicine she has to take so that she doesn’t clot off or throw an embolus.

[GilGil]

Agreed! Jeanine Pirro said recently to Trump,” Why are you so confident and where do you get all your energy?”

Trump knows something we do not!

[irish guard]

I sure hope you're right....for now I'm a skeptic. Yea, I know some polls are registered voters versus likely. And yea, I know they aren't actually as far apart as the 8-10% polls, because I do believe that they're oversampling democrats. But I've been around a long time, both here at FR and in life. I'm no troll that's for damn sure

I saw three polls in Wisconsin (where I live) and I know a lot about this state, the number of Dems versus Reps and patterns. When a poll comes out here (and I still think we are barely a swing state for president...we are purple) and they have 4-5% more Dems than Reps, I think that part is accurate. The bigger issue is the Dem get out the vote here. Blacks voted for Obama in droves, but they also voted for Kerry and Gore in droves. I think Hillary carries this state. Not by the 13% the guy from Marquette had a week or so ago, but I think she'll get a 4% margin unless something breaks on the news front. Trump made a mistake here in bashing Walker. It still makes a lot of my friends mad. In some respects, I don't blame them. We had 8 years of a crummy democrat who damn near ruined the state. Walker gave us Act 10 which killed the teachers union and state unions, photo ID, a much better DNR, lower taxes by a lot, froze the UW budget for two years, defunded planned parenthood at the state level, lowered spending and improved the business climate. I'm voting for Trump, but just don't believe he'll carry enough republicans to win the state. Democrats here are really the old fashioned unionista, left wing, liberal almost socialist types who won't cross over to vote for Trump.

As for the rest of the country, I can still see hope in Pennsylvania. Western PA has really changed over the years, but can it overtake the Philly area? Don't know. Virginia? Tough state to win. I think he wins Florida and Ohio, but still needs a big state like PA or Michigan to get him the win. Ultimately, polls with tighten to 2-5%. Hopefully Hillary's emails continue to emerge from whoever is leaking them.

[LS]

Ok, but some realism: 1) Zogs shows no crosstabs, 2) Zogs was off in 2012 worse than almost any other pollster, showing Minoin with a 1 point lead (final was Zero 3.7).

Let’s do remember that at one time Zogs was THE most accurate pollster in DC (I think that was 1998 or 2000). Every cycle we have a different poll emerge as “the most accurate.” This cycle I thought it might be USC.

Remains to be seen.