Hotline’s Senate Power Rankings

National Journal ^ | Aug. 10, 2016, | Andrea Drusch and Kyle Trygstad

[Clintonfatigued]

1. Illinois—Mark Kirk (R) (Pre­vi­ous rank­ing: 1)

The real­ity for Kirk is that he may be the most out­spokenly anti-Trump Re­pub­lic­an in­cum­bent in the coun­try, and yet he still prob­ably can’t pre­vail if Trump’s per­cent­age of the vote falls too far. With Trump’s num­bers tailspin­ning na­tion­ally, the Demo­crat­ic lean of the state is likely to be too much for Kirk to over­come. Still, his cam­paign is hop­ing to be­ne­fit from the ab­sence of fa­vor­ite son Barack Obama at the top of the tick­et.

2. Wis­con­sin—Ron John­son (R) (2)

John­son made an un­con­ven­tion­al de­cision to speak on stage last month at the Re­pub­lic­an con­ven­tion. But the Home­land Se­cur­ity Com­mit­tee chair­man hardly men­tioned Trump and in­stead kept his re­marks fo­cused on the run­ning theme of his race with former Sen. Russ Fein­gold: na­tion­al se­cur­ity. This still ap­pears to be the second most likely pickup op­por­tun­ity for Demo­crats, and Fein­gold led by 11 points among likely voters in a Mar­quette Law School poll out Wed­nes­day.

3. In­di­ana—Open (R—Dan Coats re­tir­ing) (Un­ranked)

Re­pub­lic­ans spent mil­lions mak­ing sure their favored can­did­ate sur­vived a com­pet­it­ive primary last spring, in hopes of put­ting this race away early and avoid­ing a Richard Mour­dock-type li­ab­il­ity down the road. When they suc­ceeded in get­ting Rep. Todd Young nom­in­ated, we agreed with their lo­gic and moved this race to the dis­tant long-shot cat­egory.

But the Re­pub­lic­an ad­vant­age evap­or­ated en­tirely when Evan Bayh joined the race last month, re­pla­cing former Rep. Bar­on Hill on the bal­lot. Bayh has a lengthy post-Sen­ate lob­by­ing résumé that’s not ideal in the year of the out­sider, but Re­pub­lic­ans don’t have much time to re­shape voters’ opin­ion of a pop­u­lar former sen­at­or and gov­ernor. Plus, Bayh has been on TV com­batting their ef­forts from Day One.

[Clintonfatigued]

Freeper observations are encouraged.

[ChicagoConservative27]

Numbers tail spinning? WTF?

[Lurkinanloomin]

The multi-national politicians llike Kirk need to be removed from office.
If we can’t Cantorize them in the primary, vote them out in the general.

[Lurkinanloomin]

: na­tion­al se­cur­ity.
*********************

If Johnson had remembered that national security starts at the border he likely would not be in trouble.

[VRWC For Truth]

As long as Miotch, the turd-le. is majority master baiter nutin gets done!...

[DoodleDawg]

In some cases I still think that it depends on who wins the presidency.

I think that Kirk, Johnson and probably Ayotte are lost causes.

Indiana is a solid red state and Pence is on the ticket. Even with Bayh back in the race I just don't see Indiana sending two Democrats to the Senate.

If Clinton takes Pennsylvania big then I think that Toomey loses. If Clinton takes Pennsylvania in a close race or if Trump takes Pennsylvania then I think Toomey wins.

I don't think that Clinton takes North Carolina so I think Burr wins.

Rubio is going to be bombarded with all his quotes about how he hates being a senator, but regardless of who wins the Democrat primary Rubio is going to face a weak opponent. He probably is re-elected so he has six more years where he doesn't have to show up for work.

I think Blunt and Portman win regardless of who takes the White House.

Fingers crossed that McCain gets primaried out of office and we don't have to wonder about November.

Nevada I'm hoping for the best. It'd be great to see Reid have to turn his seat over to a Republican.

[stars & stripes forever]

KIRK will lose his election because of his unwavering support of PLANNED PARENTHOOD. Bye.

[Lurkinanloomin]

Reid would be turning his seat over to a Cheap Labor Express stooge, so it’s really not a win for the citizens.

[nathanbedford]

The Republican Party has not had a coherent reason for its existence since Ronald Reagan and no credible public reason since the invasion of Iraq. The looming disaster in the Senate is a symptom of a greater malaise. In politics demographics is destiny but we have no antidote to combat an irresistible virus unless Trump is elected.

Unless Trump is elected, the entire nation will be turned into California and we will in honesty be compelled to pronounce constitutional conservatism dead. I will have to acknowledge that the political philosophy of my entire life has failed as we come to the end of a golden age. The imperative to survive means that duty to family must supersede patriotism and we should advise children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren to save themselves by abandoning principle to resort to opportunism modeled on the Clintons and cynically secure their places at the trough. They should operate as selfishly as required to survive and use fifth century Rome as their model if they are classically minded or to Venezuela if they are more contemporary. Above all they must suppress any public display of patriotism, Christian faith or conservatism if they are to prosper in the new age utopia whose cardinal characteristics will be cynicism, cronyism, and corruption.

Patriotism be damned, opportunism is the watchword. We must all become Clintons and Kardassians.

[Radix]

God forbid that Judgment Day should be delayed so long as to compel us to resort to such a diminishing of our character.

[Impy]

No thanks, I don’t want the amazing one-limbed fake war hero incompetent communist Tammy SUCKworth for a Senator. I hate Kirk’s guts but I’ll walk over glass to vote for him, taking what I can get in this crap state.

[Impy]

You are wrong to put Ayotte in the same class of vulnerability as Kirk and Johnson.

Right now I say those 2 probably lose (Feingold? YUCK), NV will will close but Heck has an edge (he’s a RINO sure but suck it up, Trump wants a Republican Senate).

Several others we COULD lose. Rubio won’t lose. I’ve seen Burr trail in a poll to his 2nd tier opponent but I don’t buy it, if he loses or if Trump loses NC turn off the TV. McCain ain’t gonna lose (if he gets through the primary). Blunt ain’t gonna lose. Portman probably not, but he could.

Toomey and Ayotte, about 50/50.

Worried about Indiana right now. GD Evan Stinkwood Bayh. If Indiana screws us again!!!

If you wanna write off IL and WI (I wouldn’t entirely, especially WI but pencil in rat wins) that puts us at 52.

Big races PA, NH, OH, IN and pickup opportunity NV. Need 3 of 5 to hold 51.

[Clintonfatigued]

My opinion is similar but not identical to others here. We’re in a very unusual election which may realign traditional voting patterns, and there could more ticket-splitting than normal.

I think that Mark Kirk of Illinois and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin are underdogs, but not necessarily lost causes. Kirk’s posturing may pay off in the hoity-toity Chicago suburbs. I definitely don’t want Congresswoman Tammy Durkworth in the Senate. She could become a candidate for national office. That makes her dangerous, while Kirk is merely annoying.

Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire has a knack of beating the odds and over-performing at the polls. Her opponent, Governor Maggie Hassan, has never faced a really tough opponent.

Patrick Toomey will win unless Trump loses Pennsylvania by a large margin. Toomey’s opponent is less-than-impressive.

Rob Portman is getting unexpected help fro the MSM, partly for being a good father if not a good Senator. Ex-Governor Ted Strickland is being called for his vulgar remark about Antonin Scalia’s death. Imagine that coming from a former Christian pastor.

I think Rubio will win because whichever Democrat he faces will emerge from a bitter primary damaged.

Richard Burr of North Carolina is to be watched. His record is less-than-impressive and he reminds me of Elizabeth Dole, overconfident and looking stronger than he actually is.

I think that Joe Heck will give Republicans a pickup in Nevada, though it’ll be close. His opponent has little appeal outside of Las Vegas. I look forward to seeing Nevada voters spit in Harry Reid’s eye electorally.

In CA, I fear that state AG Kamala Harris will be the next radical Senator, even worse than the retiring Barbara Boxer. I don’t care how beautiful Harris is, she’ll be a leftward anchor by herself.

There will likely be an upset or two out there, but it’s too early to say where.

[Impy]

I don’t envision voting patterns being “realigned” in any major way or much more than usual ticket splitting.

Any “upsets” would probably be horrible news for us cause CO is the only other rat seat remotely in play. What would come next, OR and WA?

Cali Republicans could elect Sanchez over Harris if they wanted to but there’s no sign there’s any motivation to do that. As distasteful as it is they damn well should.