Posted on 08/11/2016 12:31:09 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
If the election to determine the next President of the United States were held today and your choices were …
(Excerpt) Read more at opinionsavvy.com ...
I know that more females than males vote (for shame!) but 56/44 isn’t that a bit too skewed or is that the way it is in Florida?
We’re so screwed.
Well, I got a Trump yard sign on my front lawn since he made that campaign stop at the Convention Ctr in Tampa, and so far it’s still standing undamaged. Plenty of Trump signs here in Hernando Cty which is relatively conservative.
Good numbers for Trump, with all the ads that Clinton has run.
The reliance on landline phones is a big issue. The only person that has one that I know is my 80 year old mother. And I never answer a call on my mobile number that I don’t have in my contacts unless I am expecting a call. What will polling firms do once this becomes the norm?
I don’t think so. Just watched this “debate”:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3458696/posts
In my experience when a representative for a party acts like the Dim “lady” then not only is the peson losing the argument but usually also well aware that they are behind in the election.
FWIW, smallish town CO, I have not yet seen a Trump sticker or lawn sign, though I’m sure he will get many votes here.
VERY good poll for Trump. Oversampled women huge (at least 6), so this is like the sixth straight poll with Trump coming back strong.
Unfortunately the size of rally crowds, and the number of bumper stickers and yard signs does not correspond to votes.
I don’t understand what you wrote. Sorry.
I knew it was bad but that bad??!!!! (Mobile phones was part of the problem but far from all. People just do not want to answer any longer.)
Anyway, from that figure one can deduct that if candidate A and B both have 50% of the likely voters, but for some reason candidate A's voters are only 7% likely to answer a poll, whereas candidate B's voters are 9% likely to answer (for all kinds of different reasons) then the result of that poll, assuming otherwise perfect sampling would be 44/56.
In other words unless the pollsters can make certain that their sample is representative of the mass of people asked that declined to answer then the poll is completely worthless - even if it has been weighted for gender, party affiliation, age, income etc etc.
In the olden days when polling companies accepted (but just) a response rate of 80%, then if candidate A and B had response rates 75% and 85% respectively then the outcome would have been 47/53. Thus, the result was much less dependent on how willing the different voters were to answer.
Over sampled women, Miami area. Good news for Trump
deduct = deduce
Sorry.
Oop! Wrong thread ad clumsy fingers on mobile device. That and TIA’s.
Opinion Savvy is anti-Trump. They were all primary season. Run by a guy with ties to the Bush WH. Not to be discarded but understand the agenda here.
My sister lives in FL and tells me that hillary commercials are wall to wall down there. I hope Trump is just holding his money until after labor Day and starts making media buys then. He needs to get on the air.
I believe it IS the norm. I don't answer the house phone unless caller ID tells me (has a voice notification, "call from ________") it's someone I recognize. The business I am in requires that I answer cell calls I can't identify, as they could have picked up my business card or property flier or been referred by a friend. But I'm starting to remember "Rachel from cardholder services" numbers (her recorded voice calls 4-5 times a week) and ignore them.
A couple of polling companies have got to me over the years, but I've said no thanks.
State offices are just receiving them. Cantact local office and volunteer to pick them up for them
There are a lot of old people down here..
The man tends to die first
And a lot are from up north which will not help Trump
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