Posted on 08/05/2016 7:03:23 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican
In any given election year, polls are a hot topic of concern. Is Donald Trump leading or Hillary Clinton? Will it be a close race or a landslide? Lately, it's hard to know. Between primaries, caucuses and general elections, getting an accurate sense of the public's political inclinations is an arduous task. That's what polls are for – to record opinions spanning time and demographics in an attempt to predict voting outcomes.
Unfortunately, polling in general is facing a crisis of sorts: The methodology that has worked in the past is not holding up in today's digital era, and it's hard to distinguish a quality poll from a dud. As has been true throughout history, polling mechanisms are worthy of a healthy dose of skepticism if we want them to evolve and improve.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
Right now we are seeing them twisting the numbers of the polls to skew the results. Hmm I wonder why?
What matters, is who gets out to vote.
This year, will be the single most important vote in an entire generation.
Everyone. Register to vote. If you haven’t already, do that today.
Talk with other people who are enthused, about our candidate. And even talk with those who might be.
But most important. VOTE.
Vote.
I’m not worried about the polls..
Even with yet another “Trump worst week ever” the best they could give Hillary was a 10 point lead which apparently us already down to 2-4 points even if you believe the polls.
Trump plays rope a dope, he knows the media is going to attack no matter what so he lets them play while he keeps making the case to huge throngs of people in stadiums while Hillary hides from the spotlight.
They always seem to be skewed towards the Marxist by the Marxist media. Coincidence?
Pray America wakes
“What matters, is who gets out to vote”
No what matters is who counts the votes.
TRUMP is kicking it in North Carolina polling. He’s at 32% just among BLACK voters there.
Splendid.
Check out theconservativetreehouse.. The Last Refuge
Watched Hemmer on FoxNews for the morning headlines.
He had Chris Wallace on to talk about 2 polls showing Clinton 9 and 15 points ahead. Wallace was absolutely giddy over those numbers and Trump’s ‘bad weeks since the Republican convention’.
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Sounds like the piling on is continuing. Media/Dems/GOPestablishment think they are finally going to take Trump down.
Had a poll robocall last night, asked to press “1” or “2” for different questions, including the Presidential race. I think the poll was for Congressman Brad Ashford (D). Don Bacon (R) is running against him. One of the questions, which I thought was strange was (something to the effect of), “....if Trump is elected President and Don Bacon is elected to Congress, do you think Don Bacon will stand up to Trump and vote against Trump’s agenda on any items with which Don Bacon does not agree?”.
This Ashford guy tries to promote himself as “reaching across the aisle” and not “playing partisan politics”. I expect that one question will be used somehow to conclude that (for example), “80% of those who support Don Bacon think he will always vote with Trump, should Trump be
elected”. This could happen while ignoring the poll results for Trump vs HRC, etc.
I tend to be quite suspicious of these polls, but it is apparent that the data could be manipulated in many ways.
The demographics of the turnout are going to be key. I have always doubted that Hillary is going to get out the yute vote, the African-American vote, and the millennial vote like Obama did. She is not going to be able to reassemble the Obama coalition.
If that is true, then the electorate is going to be more Republican. Every pollster is assuming that the makeup of the electorate will be the same as in 2008 and 2012. If not, then it everything is out the window.
In sum, it is who gets out to vote that will decide this election.
Very true.
RATS fudge the polls before elections, then they rig the elections to match the polls.
More voted than registered? Republicans 0 votes?
No problem, it is all fixed, and they are getting away with it.
The MSM’s strategy:
1. Cover for Hillary
2. Direct media fire at Trump 24-7
3. Based on that orchestrated media fire, declare that Trump is having a bad week
4. Then find and highlight polls that “prove” Trump is having a bad week
5. Plant rumors that Trump is about to drop out of the race
6. Cover for Hillary
7. Sunday morning news shows, place snickering pundits in a circle and have them sneer.
Right on.
This General Election cycle has brought out the TRUMP crawling-through-glass vote, that crosses party lines and races, honestly, in the same manner as Obama did, in 2008.
However, there is an underground vote for TRUMP out there that will never be captured until election day. It has to do with Democrats who despise Hillary, and government workers and many black voters who can not speak his name. TRUMP!
polling mechanisms are worthy of a healthy dose of skepticism if we want them to evolve and improve.
Evolve and improve? such as how the one polling organization decided to change their methodology, so as to produce a poll which showed Hillary in the lead??? That sort of evolution???
I totally, and completely agree. The polls are somewhat helpful in strategizing where to put efforts, and how to fine tune your message, but they can't predict turnout, and that is the most important factor. We recurrently see people on this board comment about the % of democrats vs Republicans and Independents in each poll, and commentary about how this effects the polling outcome. The same principle holds in the general election. If a much higher percentage of a group that generally votes for candidate A shows up to vote, candidate A will have an advantage. We need to make sure that like no other year turnout for those against the status quo is very high this year.
If Trump gets 32% of the black vote, he wins North Carolina, and could get other states at well, if he gets that share of the black vote nationwide.
I’ve always been puzzled why black voters vote, almost as a bloc, for Democrats.
Do they think that they are supposed to vote Democrat because of President Johnson and the civil rights act and voting rights act?? Do they know their history, that Republicans actually supported those laws in greater proportion that Democrats in Congress did?
Is it conventional wisdom among blacks that in politics you must be a Democrat? If so where did this notion come from?
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