Posted on 07/24/2016 10:22:04 AM PDT by MaxistheBest
The YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker polled likely voters across eleven competitive states before and after the Republican National Convention
Donald Trump has made small gains among undecided voters in eleven competitive states, according to two waves of the YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker, carried out before and after the Republican National Convention.
The Republican nominee’s share of support has risen to 42% in the latest survey, putting him one point ahead of his Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton. Trump’s support is up from 40% in the previous round of interviews while Hillary Clinton’s support held firm at 41%. Gary Johnson’s support is 6%, a one point increase from before, and Jill Stein’s was unchanged at 2%. The share of remaining undecided or third-party voters fell from 11% to 9%.
The study includes likely voters from eleven states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Voters who participated in the most recent wave were first interviewed July 13-15 and were recontacted July 22-23 at the conclusion of the Republican National Convention.
Overall, thirty-six percent of likely voters in these states report feeling more positively about Donald Trump following the convention, while 32% report feeling more negatively. 22% say their views are unchanged.
I guess he didn’t promise enough “free stuff”.
From CBS, yawning.
What are the intramurals of this poll?
It’s 1980 again, in terms of this election. The media will say it’s a close race all the way to the end, and proclaim that Hillary has a slight lead on election eve. Then on Election Day the pissed off majority of the American people will let their voices be heard and will vote in the tens of millions for Trump including above average numbers of independents and Democrats. I do realize the near certainty the Dems will commit voter fraud, but I think most people are waking up to the fact this country is a mess and it’s being transformed into something they don’t want.
See BS..considering those DNCLeaks..we all know EVERYTHING from the media is PROPAGANDA from the DNC
DONALD TRUMP will win in a landslide.
There will be much information spread between now and Election Day. The MSM is 100% in Crooked Hillary’s corner and will pull out all stops to portray her victory as an inevitability. The MSM hates Donald Trump with a passion that cannot possibly be imagined. After all, Trump has been pissing on them since he got into the race and they are taking it personal.
This CBS poll has to be wrong as there are some other polls and lots of options showing that Trump got a huge jump in the pools during and after the RNC.
There was a post here very early this morning stating that Trump would get 57% of the vote.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/3452288/posts
Yep!!! They burned their bridge!! Anything that calls out of the pen from any news outlets is a lie straight from the DNC talking point via emails!!!! Collusion: word “DARK”!!!! PFFT..need I say more?!
Of most interest is the composite of states considered battlegrounds includes Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. That Trump is even in this poll is very good news.
Correct.
A great example of this is the hidden support from seemingly innocent network promotions. In MSNBC's TV commercials asking the viewer to watch MSNBC for coverage is a huge graphic with a poll showing Hillary with 50% and Trump with 39%. Obviously from a while back and in response to one of their push polls, but to leave it as a big part of their onscreen promotions is just one hidden way to throw their support behind Clinton.
Sneaky and subliminal is what they do.
from DNCLeaks.
I was surprised to see all 11 battleground states lumped together. If Trump is leading Hildabeast by 2 points in all, then he is leading her by much more than that in at least a handful. Trump doesn’t need all 11, he only needs 6-7 battleground states depending on which ones.
For instance, if you stripped out the voters from Colorado, Michigan and Nevada (these 3 states are on the outer edge of being battleground states, definitely not swing states), I’m thinking Trump’s numbers would go up in the states he is already doing better in,all of which are true swing states.
Here is the honest assessment and what must be killing Nate Silver and others on the left who know how polling works and how voters respond.
1) Both candidates have nearly Universal name recognition, so the odds that current supporters of Trump will switch to Clinton, or current supporters of Clinton will switch to Trump, are miniscule at best.
2) Clinton has a track record of political behavior, votes, promises, and campaigns. Not only was she Secretary of State and Senator of New York, but she ran for the nomination in 2008, which afforded many, many people the chance to consider her as President. Most people have already made up their mind as to how they will vote when it comes to her.
3) The Libertarian party and the Green party are fringe parties that appeal to specific politically aware sections of the voting population. The Libertarians focus on less government while Greens focus on environmental issues. Those who are for less government overwhelmingly support the Republican party while those who are for environmental reforms overwhelmingly support the Democrat party.
4) Undecided voters may (because of #1 above) sit out the election, or may (because of #2 above) vote for Trump grudgingly. It is unlikely that people who are undecided know both who Clinton is and what she would do in office and still remain undecided if they will eventually vote for her. About 20% to 25% will.
If Johnson and Stein were to hold onto 80% of their polling levels now, that would be amazing. But even then, they would bleed 20% of their votes to the main candidates, which clearly would give Trump another 1% bounce or so.
If Trump can break the 45% barrier in the next few weeks, the Democrats are going to be panicked. Trump needs to focus on what he wants to do to win over the undecideds and siphon off votes from Johnson.
His negative attacks are fun, but at best will suppress turnout for Clinton (which can be VERY effective this year). It would be best if he can do both types of ads.
My guess is many non-core conservatives are waiting for the dem convention to decide. Many core conservatives holding out will likely begin to come into the fold as the election gets closer.
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