GOP pollsters = Romney & Ryan employees.
Trump is investing in himself. Think of his movement as Palin times 1000. Palin owned 2008-2011. She was the king-maker. She was the catalyst behind the Tea Party’s hostile takeover of the GOPe until 2011 when GOPe destroyed her.
Trump can become a permanent king-maker whether or not he wins 2016. He must be thinking beyond 2016 with strategic investments. Trump single-handedly orchestrated the hostile takeover of the entire GOP. If Trump is somehow Palin-ized, GOP will break up.
Have seen a few good cable ads. Hope they keep them up!
The choice has never been clearer. God Bless Donald Trump and God Bless America.
If Hillary wins it will prove the insane out number the sane.
With Trump winning, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, New Jersey and California, Hillary has no chance.
Can Trump really win New Jersey..Maryland I really doubt for goodness sake Baltimore alone is a reason why he cant win, but New Jersey, I guess its POSSIBLE considering Chris Christie being Governor not sure how popular he is, but if Trump CAN win Jersey than the election is over he’s already won just not sure if its wishful thinking on his part or its really possible
Thanks to Mormon shenanigans, Trump may lose Utah & Nevada. That makes it all the more important to win the upper Mid West.
Mr Trump’s biggest obstacles at this time are the GOPe and his seeming disinterest in setting up a ground game (Twitter doesn’t count).
I don’t buy any of the “traditional” campaign methods. No Trump won’t ignore OH,FL, VA, PA etc., but do you watch sports? How often does one team seem to be doing well until the last 5 minutes when the other team turns it on? Whether sports or politics, it’s usually not possible to bury someone & keep him down.
In 1964, LBJ won by 20 in a “landslide” right? But did you know that Goldwater cut 30 points (!!) off the June lead? Or tha Dukakis lost huge after leading by 27 in June? The point is, there is NO reason to burn money in June, July, and August. Except for a little “team building” & money raiding, the only thing you do in the summer is label your opponent, and Trump has already labeled “Crooked Hillary.”
I’m guessing that Trump has put California into play, because Trump, already, has somebody in mind, FROM CALIFORNIA, to become his VP. Duncan Hunter, Jr.? Condi Rice? Somebody else, from California?
NY, PA, NJ shot at CT. FL for sure.
Add NC, MI, or OH and we have a new electoral map my friends.
Newt’s “Trump Patriots” will win the day.
The models are broken for a whole bunch of reasons. Those include but are not limited to:
almost universally reported horrifying enemy attacks at home in war (San Bernardino and recently Orlando - there will be more before the election),
the first economic class-based voter revolution,
class-based reporting (the media are now all from a SINGLE narrow & incestuous socio-economic class with virtually no ties to public opinion outside their small in-group),
break-up of one party's lock on specific ethnic-based voter groups (the Democrats have LOST working-class blacks & Hispanics - IMO Trump will get 10-15 of the black vote, and 25-35% of Hispanics),
over-reliance on telephone polls (as opposed to other means of communicating with potential voters),
over-reliance on now-outmoded land-lines for telephone polls (which is different from, but related to, the former),
Etc.
Look at the presaging events in past elections for indications as to where the 2016 Presidential election is headed. Here are IMO the decisive indicators:
It will be a GOP landslide for the Presidency anyway. This is a GOP sweep year for the presidency due to structural factors. I felt last year that any plausible GOP nominee would beat ANY Democratic nominee, with the GOP getting 55%+ of the popular vote and 40+ states votes in November.
The structural factors have been the GOP sweep of Congressional, state and local elections in the 2010, 2012 and 2014 elections, to the point where it would be difficult for the GOP to win any more such offices, plus that the economy and jobs have plain sucked the whole time. The latter is largely due to a statistically significant collapse in small business formation, and that in turn is due to regulatory overload, chiefly federal. The camel’s back has finally broken.
Historically either of these indicators have always resulted in an overwhelming turnover of the Presidency. Here we are dealing with both together.
Finally the primary voters have so far this year DECISIVELY rejected the status quo. 72.6% of the GOP primary voters chose either Trump, Cruz or Ben Carson. 42.9% of the Democratic primary voters chose Bernie Sanders. Together, as an average of both parties combined, those are 55% of all primary voters who chose candidates that unmistakably reject the status quo and present party/national elites
The voters are seriously p***** off this year. They’re not going to vote for a Democratic candidate who represents more of the way things are. They’ll vote for whoever most represents CHANGE. That is Donald Trump.
For the record, I am not a Trump supporter. I’ll vote for him in November because I’m a Republican. But I did predict last December that he would win. That was obvious after San Bernardino. Now we’ve seen Orlando. There will be more.