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Donald Trump’s path to victory
Politico.com ^ | 06/19/2016 | ELI STOKOLS

Posted on 06/19/2016 2:13:05 PM PDT by MaxistheBest

He needs to best Romney with white men and turn a few reliably blue Rust Belt states red.

Donald Trump has vowed to remake the electoral map by winning states that have been reliably blue in recent cycles — but the GOP’s best pollsters say his bluster is a long way from aligning with reality.

Trump, who has been slow to campaign in swing states while raising money in stumping in red states like Texas last week, should be able to count on winning Republican strongholds — states such as Arizona (11 Electoral College votes) and Georgia (16), where he campaigned last Wednesday, despite some optimism from Democrats that those increasingly diverse states could be put in play. In total, the party’s electoral math gurus say the presumptive GOP nominee likely starts the general election with a hold on 19 states, which give him a total of 164 Electoral College votes.

To reach 270, Trump’s team is aiming to capture America’s Rust Belt — specifically, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin — where polls generally show him performing better than Mitt Romney did at this point in 2012. If he can capture Florida and keep North Carolina — the 2012 red state of the lightest hue — a strong showing that includes capture of the Rust Belt could, Trump’s team believes, put him over the top.

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On Thursday, Trump reportedly told donors during a meeting that he thinks he can put New Jersey and Maryland in play as well. Plus, a super PAC backing him is tossing money into national cable ads rather than targeting voters in the battlegrounds.

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“Right now, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida look very close because she’s having a hard time getting Sanders supporters on board,”

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election; politics
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1 posted on 06/19/2016 2:13:05 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
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To: MaxistheBest

GOP pollsters = Romney & Ryan employees.


2 posted on 06/19/2016 2:18:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: MaxistheBest

Trump is investing in himself. Think of his movement as Palin times 1000. Palin owned 2008-2011. She was the king-maker. She was the catalyst behind the Tea Party’s hostile takeover of the GOPe until 2011 when GOPe destroyed her.

Trump can become a permanent king-maker whether or not he wins 2016. He must be thinking beyond 2016 with strategic investments. Trump single-handedly orchestrated the hostile takeover of the entire GOP. If Trump is somehow Palin-ized, GOP will break up.


3 posted on 06/19/2016 2:19:32 PM PDT by sagar
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To: MaxistheBest

Have seen a few good cable ads. Hope they keep them up!


4 posted on 06/19/2016 2:20:39 PM PDT by hoosiermama (Trump is exposing the Fifth Column in the US)
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To: MaxistheBest

The choice has never been clearer. God Bless Donald Trump and God Bless America.


5 posted on 06/19/2016 2:24:06 PM PDT by WyCoKsRepublican
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To: MaxistheBest

If Hillary wins it will prove the insane out number the sane.


6 posted on 06/19/2016 2:25:07 PM PDT by Vaduz (women and children to be impacted the most.)
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To: MaxistheBest

With Trump winning, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, New Jersey and California, Hillary has no chance.


7 posted on 06/19/2016 2:25:21 PM PDT by Timpanagos1
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To: MaxistheBest

Can Trump really win New Jersey..Maryland I really doubt for goodness sake Baltimore alone is a reason why he cant win, but New Jersey, I guess its POSSIBLE considering Chris Christie being Governor not sure how popular he is, but if Trump CAN win Jersey than the election is over he’s already won just not sure if its wishful thinking on his part or its really possible


8 posted on 06/19/2016 2:29:58 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Sarah Barracuda

“but if Trump CAN win Jersey than the election is over”

I think it’s way too early to be planning for NJ, NY and CA. He needs to see his numbers improve in FL,NC,VA,PA and OH. first. If he wins these 5 states he will most likely win the election. He can then spend time trying to pick up a blue state and that would give him an incredible mandate to govern.

Maybe that’s why the GOP is fighting him so much. If he wins while taking a few blue states, he could steamroll the RINO’s right out of DC.


9 posted on 06/19/2016 2:41:52 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
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To: MaxistheBest

It could very end up being that Clinton wins the popular vote and Trump wins the electoral college..If Trump wins Jersey we can go to bed the election is OVER..but I just dont know if its possible..I know he doesnt stand a chance here in Cali, trust me I live here, and I love Trump but he has ZERO chance in this state, if he wins CA I will eat my shoe(With BBQ sauce) Reagan could come back from the dead and run again and he wouldnt have a chance that’s how far gone this state is
And the GOPe doesnt want Trump to win because they are for open borders, I bet you if you checked out their mega mansions you would find some illegal alien maids living in there, I can guarantee it


10 posted on 06/19/2016 2:45:36 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Vaduz

I agree!!! HOW can ANYONE seriously support that drunken criminal for President, much less half the nation???


11 posted on 06/19/2016 2:50:06 PM PDT by Frank_2001
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To: MaxistheBest

Thanks to Mormon shenanigans, Trump may lose Utah & Nevada. That makes it all the more important to win the upper Mid West.

Mr Trump’s biggest obstacles at this time are the GOPe and his seeming disinterest in setting up a ground game (Twitter doesn’t count).


12 posted on 06/19/2016 2:51:46 PM PDT by indcons (Space available for advertising. Contact for rates.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

At this stage they are guessing and running a psy-op campaign against Trump and his supporters.

Ther is no substantial evidnce that LKillery has any lead in the polls. The polls to date are weighted as much as +10 democRAT. This leads to a +3 to +4 lead for Killery.

If one were to normalize the number of democRATS to the percentage of registered democRATS, and normalize to the number of registered Republicans, and independents, Trump would be even or +2 to +5.

At this stage, even is what I would expect before the convention(s). Trump is keeping his powder dry until after the democRAT convention and then the dam will break. He will start attacking her on every word of her statements and actions to date. She will be badly battered and beaten.

Make no mistakes, Trump didn’t get into this with a 50/50 chance of winning. For Trump to get in, it had to be 60/40 or better. And I’d be willing to bet that at this point it’s probably still there.


13 posted on 06/19/2016 2:52:04 PM PDT by Ouderkirk (To the left, everything must evidence that this or that strand of leftist theory is true)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

“I bet you if you checked out their mega mansions you would find some illegal alien maids living in there,”

Yup...and I bet they all have Clinton on speed dial!


14 posted on 06/19/2016 2:59:55 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
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To: sagar

Why would he be looking beyond 2016? If Hill wins, there is NOTHING LEFT. November, 2016 is it. Period.


15 posted on 06/19/2016 3:02:17 PM PDT by Wyrd bið ful aræd (Don't Tread On Me)
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To: MaxistheBest

I don’t buy any of the “traditional” campaign methods. No Trump won’t ignore OH,FL, VA, PA etc., but do you watch sports? How often does one team seem to be doing well until the last 5 minutes when the other team turns it on? Whether sports or politics, it’s usually not possible to bury someone & keep him down.

In 1964, LBJ won by 20 in a “landslide” right? But did you know that Goldwater cut 30 points (!!) off the June lead? Or tha Dukakis lost huge after leading by 27 in June? The point is, there is NO reason to burn money in June, July, and August. Except for a little “team building” & money raiding, the only thing you do in the summer is label your opponent, and Trump has already labeled “Crooked Hillary.”


16 posted on 06/19/2016 3:03:22 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Timpanagos1

No to CA. He has to o overcome about 9 m votes. Waste of time. NJ an outside shot. PA &MI definite possibilities. He WILL win FL, AZ, TX, GA, WV, IN, MO, and possibly OR.


17 posted on 06/19/2016 3:05:51 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: MaxistheBest

I’m guessing that Trump has put California into play, because Trump, already, has somebody in mind, FROM CALIFORNIA, to become his VP. Duncan Hunter, Jr.? Condi Rice? Somebody else, from California?


18 posted on 06/19/2016 3:48:24 PM PDT by johnthebaptistmoore (The world continues to be stuck in a "all leftist, all of the time" funk. BUNK THE FUNK!)
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To: johnthebaptistmoore

Condi Rice supported Neel Kashkari for California governor against Tea Party favorite Tim Donnolly.

Neel Kashkari is an admitted Obama voter and a supporter of amnesty, gay marriage, abortion and gun control. Condi Rice is a neocon establishment player, not a conservative.


19 posted on 06/19/2016 3:52:28 PM PDT by Pelham (Islam vs the Free World in a death match)
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To: MaxistheBest

I think it’s a bit early for all the hand wringing. AFTER he becomes the official Nominee; THEN you will see his campaign dismantle Hillary and leave her on the scrap pile. IMHO.


20 posted on 06/19/2016 4:03:33 PM PDT by Tucker39 (Welcome to America! Now speak English; and keep to the right....In driving, in Faith, and politics.)
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