Can Libertarian nominees Gary Johnson and Bill Weld siphon votes from Trump?

Politico ^ | 5/30/2016 | SHANE GOLDMACHER

[Redmen4ever]

Regarding ambassador:

In July 1997, Weld was nominated to become United States Ambassador to Mexico by President Bill Clinton. His nomination stalled after Senate Foreign Relations committee Chairman Jesse Helms refused to hold a hearing on the nomination, effectively blocking it. Helms was also a Republican and their party held the majority in the chamber, but Helms objected to Weld’s moderate stance on social issues such as his support for gay rights, abortion rights, and the legalization of medical marijuana.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Weld#Ambassadorship_nomination_and_resignation

i.e., libertarians versus conservatives

[ptsal]

Yes.... Johnson and Weld can do serious damage, but only if both of their wives vote for them..... ):

[Dr. Sivana]

but Helms objected to Weld’s moderate stance on social issues

That is a nice spin. He wasn't "moderate" he was flaming off the left edge of the earth, and was happy to have the government promote this stuff with taxpayer dollars, so it wasn't libertarian, either.

The only libertarian position Weld can take as governor that I recall was he was for a referendum n the seat belt law, but even there, he didn't promote the idea of the property right to drive your own car without a belt on, but to let the people decide, which is about as libertarian as Stephen Douglas was anti-slavery.

[Brilliant]

both Johnson and Weld are open borders candidates.

[Theodore R.]

Possibly, but there is an ardent anti-Trump contingent in the GOP, and they mean to do what they can to sink him.

[Lady Heron]

No, neither give the moral voter a conservative choice.

[faithhopecharity]

We had 16 candidates. One finally has won. It’s only natural that there are disappointed people. But someone had to win and 15 had to lose. That’s the only way to select a nominee out of 16. When McCain ( probably the worst R candidate in history? ) won the nomination, I supported him. When Romney (mr. Obamacare ) won the nomination, I supported him. People who try to defeat the R nominee help the D get elected.

[farming pharmer]

Gary Johnson and Bill Weld

Who and who? I'm a political junkee, and I barely know their names, much less anything about them.

Bill Kristol and enablers need Haldol 10mg IM every hour until calm then 30 days of therapy on the locked floors...

[MIchaelTArchangel]

Both Johnson and Weld suck. Sucking causes reduced pressure which is what drives a siphon.

[Redmen4ever]

Normally, “moderate” refers to a position within a range. To try to actually position a candidate, you’d want to compare his set of positions with those of voters. I highly doubt Weld was to the left of the Democrats on social issues, but suppose he was between most Republicans outside the northeast, and the Democrats. Gingrich, you may recall, referred to Romney as “a Massachusetts moderate.”

Here is a very nice attempt to do exactly what I describe. It shows Trump evolving from populist positions to conservative. It shows Sanders and Bloomberg shifting toward left-liberal. The Trump part of the analysis fits nicely with the criticisms of him based on old positions, which criticism didn’t really stick. Wouldn’t we expect Trump to be changing at least some issues as he shifts from Democrat to Republican? Also, as he gets older and wiser, and maybe even because he married to such a strong woman as Melania? I think Trump’s evolution is completely understandable, although I personally have hardly “evolved” in my own thinking since I was 14.

https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/silver-bloomberg-11.png

Trump’s big advantage is that he can appeal to both conservatives and populists, presuming Hillary gets the Democratic nomination. This is his landslide potential. The Libertarians, on the other hand, will draw from people who aren’t really on the left-right spectrum. Maybe they’ll pull a little from both Democrats and the Republicans, based on the perceived personal shortcomings of those two parties’ candidates. So, the Libertarians aren’t a real threat to Trump, even though both were members of the Republican Party back in the days when Trump was a member of the Democratic Party. (It’s actually more complicated than that.)

[gleeaikin]

I seriously doubt that disappointed Sandersites will go to either Trump or Johnson in quantity. Those that don’t go to Hillary or stay home will go to Dr. Jill Stein, or the Party for Socialism and Liberation in the states where it has ballot status.

See my Comment #33 for links.

[gleeaikin]

Well, at least his name isn’t Santorum. Google that for a political shocker.

[jonrick46]

Anyone other than the Beast would be fine for me. I am hoping some would wake up and go for Trump.

[husky ed]

Johnson & Weld couldn't steal votes from an online poll if it was about legalizing pot.

Ed

[trebb]

If they garner as much devotion as Ron Paul has during his runs, I may see all 12 of them on the MS Gulf Coast, sitting in lawn chairs in a vacant parking lot, grinning like idiots, and waving their signs.

[Dr. Sivana]

I lived next door to Weld’s state in the 1980s. He was a social liberal, well to the left of Dem powers of the era like John Silber and Billy Bulger, and at the same level as his predecessor, Mike Dukakis. Who was also infamously a social liberal. Republicans who decide to go “pro-choice” and pro-pervert in the northeast have a tendency to go way over board. Sometimes they even dod it as a result of non-left impulses gone astray. This is the land where Lieberman beat Weicker by runnng to his right, easily, and where Romney ran for senate to Ted Kennedy’s left where he thought he found room. Heck. Margaret Sanger herself was a Republcan. Nelson Rockefeller, the original Rockefeller Republican was vetoing pro-life legislation in NY after he got permissive abortion pushed through, back in the 60s!

Weld was no moderate, and I doubt he is one now.

Trump will give voice to many true moderates in Massachusetts who are drowned out by the university and nuts and crunchy types.

[Redmen4ever]

I myself was born and raised in New York and lived in Massachusetts from the late ‘70s to the early ‘80s. I’ve actually “met” about half the people mentioned in this conversation, if you count such things as sharing an elevator ride with Nelson Rockefeller. I have my own sense of where these individuals fit in the 2-dimensional spectrum (left-right, up-down). But, something more than a personal sense would be needed to resolve the matter as to whether northeast Republicans are to the left of northeast Democrats on social issues, and whether Billy Bulger and John Silber were more representative of Massachusetts Democrats during the past generation, or Michael Dukakis, Ted Kennedy, John Kerry and Barney Frank.

[Dr. Sivana]

I myself was born and raised in New York and lived in Massachusetts from the late ‘70s to the early ‘80s.

Then you know that there is an old Democrat type in Massachusetts who were culturally traditional. Outside of the south George Wallace did best in places like Massachusetts and Michigan in Democrat primaries.

Of course, even as of 1972, those folks were losing, as MA was the only state to go McGovern in the Nixon landslide.

The remaining Dems who couldn't see themselves as Republican just lost more and more influence until they moved, changed to the new way of thinking, died or just complained with no one who could do anything about it really caring.

Trump can reactivate those in the last group, and possible set a tone for a new generation. It would be a dumbed-down, laundry list type of appeals, mirroring the Democrat approach, but comparably based in reality, and not leftist ideology. That just might be wheer we are now, at least in the northeast.

Getting back to social moderate versus social liberal, I think if you wanted to make a distinction based solely on the temperament of the people in the political body, a conservative would strive for restoration (pre-Roe), a moderate would go for status quo and a leftist would try to move the ball farther in. Weld was in the last category. The list of social issues that Weld was listed "moderate" on was legalization of pot. Weld was in favor of legalization, which in 1997 was certainly "moving the ball forward", the moderate position would be enforce the current laws.

There are reasons why Bill Clinton would have appointed a man like William Weld to the Ambassadorship, and it isn't because of fiscal restraint as governor of Masdsachusetts.

In the Senate election between Weld and Kerry, it was like choosing between Mao Tse Tung and Ho Chi Minh, different evils with their own sets of special pain.

[SunkenCiv]

The Liberaltarian ticket will not have much impact, as usual.

[SaraJohnson]

I seriously doubt the progressive, open border globalists, banchee global traders (aka, libertarians and business as ususal) are going to get many votes from Trump