And the pundits have been so spot on this election cycle
PS in 1980 Reagan was a guaranteed loser to President Carter
PA resident here.
PA is a toss up now. We have a closed primary. Trump got almost as many votes as Hillary (within 50 thousand). of course Hillary will add a lot of Bernie votes, but most likely not as many as she expects.
Now that Obama is not running, and his last 8 years have been pretty crappy from an economic view I think the Dems will have a lot less enthusiasm, much the like the republicans in 2012
The independents will likely go 3 out of 4 to Trump.
I put it as a toss up only because it depended on what percentage of Kasich/Cruz voters decide to sit it out that will determine if Trump wins or losses in PA.
I think the same applies in Michigan and Ohio, the metric is the same declining industrial states where trump is the only candidate that seems to care.