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The New Electoral Scorecard Ratings in 13 Key States
The Cook Political Report ^ | 05/05/2015 | Charlie Cook

Posted on 05/05/2016 12:22:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year. Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump's historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate - women, millennials, independents and Latinos - make him the initial November underdog.

As a result, we are shifting 13 ratings on our Electoral Vote scorecard, almost all of them favoring Democrats. Our assessments are based on publicly available polling, data on demographic change and private discussions with a large number of pollsters in both parties. Much could change, but undecided voters begin more hostile to Trump than Clinton.

With these changes, 190 Electoral Votes are in the Solid Democratic column, 27 are in Likely Democratic and another 87 are in Lean Democratic - enough for a majority. Yet another 44 Electoral Votes are in Toss Up. Although Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio could shift to Lean Democratic and Nevada could shift to Likely Democratic, we are holding off on changes in these states until we see more evidence.

Nevada, for example, has proven hostile to Republicans in the last two presidential elections thanks to a rapidly growing non-white electorate. However, some early polling shows Trump performing better with whites there than previous GOP nominees. Still, we are skeptical Trump can ultimately win there.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016electoralcollege; 2016swingstates; elections; electoralcollege
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s about 100% that this is all going to be all wrong. This foolish clown(s) thinks Romney and McCain are running again?

Trump wins Florida and Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Iowa, and likely wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and pushes it in New York.


21 posted on 05/05/2016 12:58:35 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: jwalsh07
Rubio is his best bet for Florida.

Trump has the panhandle and upper Florida

Jacksonville close

I-4 usually decides it and Trump and Rubio should win and South Florida is where Rubio can put it over the TOP

22 posted on 05/05/2016 12:59:04 PM PDT by scooby321 (o even lower)
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To: SeekAndFind

based on all this, ... we should get ready for 4 more years of DummyCrap Presidency / DummyShip.


23 posted on 05/05/2016 12:59:54 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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To: scooby321
I think when Trump Eliminated Governors he wants Marco
24 posted on 05/05/2016 1:00:01 PM PDT by scooby321 (o even lower)
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To: jwalsh07

I thought we hated Little Marco.


25 posted on 05/05/2016 1:00:52 PM PDT by CityCenter (By the waters of Babylon, there we sat down, yea we wept...)
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To: jwalsh07
Trump promises to be a one termer

NOTHING I've seen from The Don makes me think he'd have the slightest interest in a deal like this....

26 posted on 05/05/2016 1:02:48 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: Nifster

PA resident here.

PA is a toss up now. We have a closed primary. Trump got almost as many votes as Hillary (within 50 thousand). of course Hillary will add a lot of Bernie votes, but most likely not as many as she expects.

Now that Obama is not running, and his last 8 years have been pretty crappy from an economic view I think the Dems will have a lot less enthusiasm, much the like the republicans in 2012

The independents will likely go 3 out of 4 to Trump.

I put it as a toss up only because it depended on what percentage of Kasich/Cruz voters decide to sit it out that will determine if Trump wins or losses in PA.

I think the same applies in Michigan and Ohio, the metric is the same declining industrial states where trump is the only candidate that seems to care.


27 posted on 05/05/2016 1:04:36 PM PDT by Frederick303
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To: scooby321

Yup. Obama beat Romney by 80,000 votes in Florida and 220,000 votes in Miami- Dade. Trump, theoretically, will stuff illegal immigration so Rubios fatal flaw will not come into play. But real politik doesn’t give two craps about feelings, you need votes. And Rubio can cut into the D margins in Dade.


28 posted on 05/05/2016 1:04:37 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: Red Steel

Oh yeah polls have already showed this year Trump has lead over Shillery in Ohio, Florida, and latest North Carolina poll has it tied up 44% against the Shill.


29 posted on 05/05/2016 1:04:40 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: jwalsh07

Thanks, wonder what Hillary got. Or maybe it doesn’t matter and we only should examine the overall state totals?

Florida

2,361,805 total R votes.

1,080,000 Trump

638,600 Rubio

1,709,000 total D votes

1,010,000 Hillary

Primaries are different than GE turnout, I think traditionally the GE gets a higher D vote out. Not sure how we can compare. Needs polling.


30 posted on 05/05/2016 1:05:39 PM PDT by Beautiful_Gracious_Skies
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To: Red Steel

Right now, I think the 3 key states are Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan. PA might offset Ohio.
It just seems unfathomable to me that Trump won’t thoroughly schlong Crooked Hillary this November!!!


31 posted on 05/05/2016 1:06:39 PM PDT by edie1960
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To: jwalsh07; nascarnation

Trump said the other day 8 years two terms.


32 posted on 05/05/2016 1:07:24 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: CityCenter

I’m not a Trump guy. I didn’t hate any of them. I didn’t vote for Rubio because if the gang of 8 but I like the guy on a personal level and aside from the illegal immigrant thing Rubio is a pretty good conservative with a wide and deep knowledge about the real world. I would have no problem with him as VP even though U voted for Cruz in primary. But my goal is to beat the left, not to destroy every R who is not Donald Trump.


33 posted on 05/05/2016 1:09:46 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: SeekAndFind; All

I don’t think that the Democrats are going to survive Trump.


34 posted on 05/05/2016 1:10:49 PM PDT by Amendment10
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To: Beautiful_Gracious_Skies

Primary numbers are correlates to GE turnout but not at 1.0 correlation and like you said are different for each party. Trump has to win Florida and will have a tougher time there than in Rust Belr swing states. I personally don’t like Trump but Trump is smart and will come to the same conclusion that U have I think. And that conclusion is that Florida is the key.


35 posted on 05/05/2016 1:13:57 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: Red Steel

Trump days lots of things that become inoperative several hours later.


36 posted on 05/05/2016 1:15:23 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: jwalsh07

The Lib or Con media can’t report him accuracy and has to resort to distortions that Cruzies like to latch onto.

A case in point among many.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3427812/posts?page=117#117


37 posted on 05/05/2016 1:18:47 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Frederick303
PA is a toss up now.

Only if you can eliminate the voter fraud in Philly. Otherwise, if it is close, the Dems will win...

38 posted on 05/05/2016 1:20:47 PM PDT by kosciusko51
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To: kosciusko51

I’m hoping that Trump, who dares to go where most Republicans fear to go, will take that problem on bigtime.


39 posted on 05/05/2016 1:21:42 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: Red Steel

BS. Trump has flaws, he didn’t come down from the Mount and the tablet in his hand us not the Decalogue.


40 posted on 05/05/2016 1:23:41 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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