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The May 3 Indiana Live Thread. Polls close at 6 pm Eastern/Central
Indiana Secretary of State ^ | 5/3/2016 | Self

Posted on 05/03/2016 1:09:05 PM PDT by NYRepublican72

Tuesday, May 3, 2016
57 of 2,472 delegates
(57 bound)

Election night data
The New York Times (including exit poll data)
Ace of Spades Decision Desk - Indiana GOP
Indiana Secretary of State


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Indiana
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; 2016primaries; cruz; in2016; indiana; liveindianaprimary; primary; trump
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What you need to know about the Indiana Primary
1) Edison Research is conducting exit polls throughout Indiana, so expect a call quickly after 7 pm Eastern if a candidate has a substantial lead. Expect the initial exit poll data to stream into media outlets at about 5 pm Eastern.

2) Indiana is an open primary. Members of any political party, including Democrats, could choose a Republican primary ballot.

3) The polls traditionally close first in the nation on Election Day in Indiana. Tuesday is no different. Most of the state, including Indianapolis closing at 6 p.m. Eastern. However, the state will not projected until after 7 pm as the parts of the state south of Chicago (Gary) and the southern counties of the state (Evansville) close are in the Central Time Zone.

4) Trump was in front in 7 of the 8 Indiana polls released in April. The only outlier was an IPFW/Downs Center poll conducted over a two-week time frame from April 13 to April 27, where Cruz sported a 16-point edge.

5) To the victor will go the spoils. As a reliably Republican state, Indiana is in the unique position of being a large-ish state that has more statewide plus RNC plus bonus delegates (30) than they do Congressional District delegates (27 delegates (9 districts times 3 delegates)). This means whomever wins the state is guaranteed a base of 30 delegates and realistically should take at least 45 (more likely 48-54) of the 57 total delegates.

6) If Trump wins the Hoosier state, the electoral path of the #NeverTrump movement gets even narrower as the Donald would likely need just 70-80 or so delegates of the 172 available in California (if you include the Pennsylvania unpledged slate of 40 or so pro-Trump delegates) or 110-120 or so to notch the nomination with solely pledged delegates.



This projection assumes that Trump wins New Jersey’s 51 delegate slate, takes 30 of the 36 delegates in West Virginia on May 10 and gets a conservative 40 delegates from the proportional states of Washington, Oregon and New Mexico.

Sourcing

For primary dates and times:
Official GOP websites for states.

For delegate allocation:
 The Green Papers
 Frontloading Blogspot

For polling data:
Real Clear Politics 

Election night data
 The New York Times (including exit poll data)
 Ace of Spades Decision Desk - Indiana GOP
 Indiana Secretary of State

1 posted on 05/03/2016 1:09:05 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: NYRepublican72

Over before dinner! What’s for desert?


2 posted on 05/03/2016 1:11:33 PM PDT by King of Florida (A little government and a little luck are necessary in life, but only a fool trusts either of them.)
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To: NYRepublican72

Thanks for those links!!


3 posted on 05/03/2016 1:12:07 PM PDT by ColdOne (poochie... Tasha 2000~3/14/11 HillaryForPrison2016)
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To: King of Florida

Dinner?

Trump likely ate Teds lunch today.


4 posted on 05/03/2016 1:14:25 PM PDT by digger48
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To: NYRepublican72

Party’s been going for hours here already:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3426838/posts


5 posted on 05/03/2016 1:14:33 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: King of Florida

Cruz is having crow


6 posted on 05/03/2016 1:14:55 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) since Nov 2014 (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: King of Florida

Hot and arid.


7 posted on 05/03/2016 1:15:28 PM PDT by Gene Eric (Don't be a statist!)
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To: King of Florida

Cruzesader tears gellato. Will take 20 minutes in the ice cream maker, so... will be ready to enjoy around 7 ish.


8 posted on 05/03/2016 1:16:39 PM PDT by LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget (God punishes Conservatives by making them argue with fools. Go Trump!)
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To: King of Florida

TDS FReaks have really ramped it up a few notches here today.

They had quieted down for a while recently.

The pay/post at FR can’t be that great.


9 posted on 05/03/2016 1:16:39 PM PDT by treetopsandroofs (Had FDR been GOP, there would have been no World Wars, just "The Great War" and "Roosevelt's Wars".)
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To: stephenjohnbanker

and for desert, humble pie.


10 posted on 05/03/2016 1:16:46 PM PDT by showme_the_Glory ((ILLEGAL: prohibited by law. ALIEN: Owing political allegiance to another country or government))
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To: King of Florida
Redoing links. the bad quote emulation error got me. Election night data
The New York Times
Ace of Spades Decision Desk - Indiana GOP
Indiana Secretary of State

11 posted on 05/03/2016 1:16:46 PM PDT by NYRepublican72 (Democrats -- it's always someone else's fault.)
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To: Gene Eric

Busted. Ouch.


12 posted on 05/03/2016 1:16:59 PM PDT by King of Florida (A little government and a little luck are necessary in life, but only a fool trusts either of them.)
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To: showme_the_Glory

: )


13 posted on 05/03/2016 1:17:18 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) since Nov 2014 (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: NYRepublican72

6pm?

They dont screw around down there.


14 posted on 05/03/2016 1:17:28 PM PDT by VanDeKoik (Viral v)
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To: Gene Eric

Will Carly fall down again tonight ?


15 posted on 05/03/2016 1:17:45 PM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: NYRepublican72

Really? Polls close at 6 pm?


16 posted on 05/03/2016 1:18:16 PM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I am so very blessed! Thank You, JESUS!)
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To: stephenjohnbanker

Ted’s Diner

Special :

Crow and Humble Pie.


17 posted on 05/03/2016 1:19:30 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) since Nov 2014 (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Given the pictures of the lines, I would not count on a 6 PM close. I believe the protocol is everyone in line by closing time gets to vote. At least that is typical. If so, expect it to drag out for a while. Dunno if the newsies will hold their prediction past the official time, however.

Trump! Trump! Trump!


18 posted on 05/03/2016 1:23:08 PM PDT by NonValueAdded ("He's a winner in the process of winning. People like that." Scott Adams)
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To: NYRepublican72

Thank you for the links.


19 posted on 05/03/2016 1:23:59 PM PDT by Duchess47 ("One day I will leave this world and dream myself to Reality" Crazy Horse)
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To: NYRepublican72

Any freepers from Indiana? Any stories from the ground?


20 posted on 05/03/2016 1:24:26 PM PDT by Democrats hate too much
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