Posted on 04/30/2016 6:29:22 AM PDT by GilGil
Donald Trump supporters are a generally happy bunch...
The Cruz campaign in Indiana is in a state of collapse and freefall. By the end of the weekend you can expect the narrative to shift, and the campaign will be pointing fingers toward California (June 7th) because their impending defeat is looming ever more dangerous.
Before getting to a recent poll, lets take a look at the current landscape. Senator Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina spoke at a campaign rally in South Bend Indiana. In a venue capable of holding more than 2,000 only a few hundred showed up...
That’s the second actual ground report in the past 48 hours highlighting exactly the same thing. The first report we shared yesterday...
My post election night math had 1,003 as solid – but virtually identical. So you can see, the probability of Trump earning the remaining 235 (1237 – 1002 = 235), knowing 51 of those are easily won in New Jersey (winner take all June 7th) makes the outcome of Trump winning enough delegates to capture the nomination a very high probability.
That crossing of the ‘inevitability factor’ threshold is what we have outlined as the most dangerous time. The angriest moment in the denial phase is right before the ideologically entrenched accept an inevitable outcome.
(Excerpt) Read more at theconservativetreehouse.com ...
THANKS! Sent it to my email list!
Anyone taking bets the taxpayers aren’t supporting this “cute little wetback”?
Look at all the other polls on RCP. They use a 1 to 3 day window to collect their numbers of what voters are thinking.
This poll, finished on 27 April went back 14 days. In other words it is NOT a picture of NOW.
Almost half of it is right after the Wisconsin primary and before the New York primary. New York and the NE primary changed the narrative.
So, the bottom line is that there was a shift in Indiana AFTER the NY and NE primaries. The polls capturing 1 to 3 day information are the ones actually depicting what is happening now.
I just find it odd that Nate Silver, who is excellent at projecting elections, on his FiveThirtyEight website has Cruz with a 65% chance of winning using one model, his "polls plus". and the other model, the "polls only", gives Trump a 71% chance of winning.
Maybe that's a fancy way of saying it's a tossup.
Here is his latest article on Indiana, it might interest you.
Summary of article: "What do I think, as a native son? I think Trump will do better here than most pundits predict.
IPF/Downs Center sonds like it’s full of the ‘mentally impaired’, which may explain their intelligence.
Lol! Great meme potential!
Remember that video of a teenage Ted Cruz that aired on TV a month or two ago?
The video which showed someone asking teenage Ted what he wanted, and he said, “World domination.”
I was wondering WTH when I watched it.
Great post, by the way.
FiveThirtyEight also still shows Trump at 957 delegates when most other sources are now showing Trump with a 1000 or more. The site isn't being updated as frequently or as thoroughly as it once was. Nate Silver seems to have lost enthusiasm for the project.
Can’t wait to hear good old El Rushbo B.S. this away! He’s been telling us how very important Indiana is going to be. He seemed to be implying that it will be even more important than the last 5 primaries won by the Donald. Now that Ted is doing poorly in Indiana, Rush will probably move on to the next primary to try and pimp Cruz.
Very sad Rush has decided Cruz is worth ruining his reputation and trust with his audience. Oh, well.
Ted Cruz - smart guy, but no common sense.
Let's also keep in mind that Trump OVERperformed the last several primaries versus the pre-election polling.
Clearly he has both regained and increased his momentum.
Jeb! Should just go home to his Casa del Frio and find a hobby. Crocheting may be therapeutic and help him expand his horizons.
Go read the article headlined at Drudge. You are mistaken
Meh. He has Trump at 97 or 98%
Go figure.
WELCOME ABOARD!!!! please join us on our rally threads, we would love to have you!!!!
It doesn’t matter much. Trump has CA and NJ in the bag. It does however mean that this race drags on for another couple of months. Both wasting money it making less likely the GOP will win.
RED STATE !!!! BS!!!!’
Cruz should have struck the word “Donald” from his vocabulary. He is obsessed. He had the chance to take the high road and be what we thought he was, but he showed that he was not an erudite thinker, but just another smarmy politician.
That is a bizarre prediction. Their cite shows Trump leading in 6 polls, Cruz leading in one poll that differs greatly from all the others, and they conclude a Cruz victory likely. Hard to swallow, but we’ll see.
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