If Charles Manson were on the Democratic ticket in November, he'd win NY. That's a given. The Republican will win outstate, but the Dem, no matter who, will win the Burroughs and carry the state.
“...the Dem ...will win the boroughs and the state...”
Not this time. Trump will will win Queens, Staten Island, Westchester, Nassau County, Suffolk County, Rockland County, Orange County, Dutchess County, Putnam County, etc. and all of upstate will go for Trump; enough downstaters will cross over to carry the state.
This will be a Reaganesque New York State win for Trump. This is not a typical election and it is a mistake for the political talking heads to assume it will be.