Posted on 04/19/2016 2:37:07 AM PDT by markomalley
Sen. Ted Cruz is crushing Donald Trump's delegate operation in yet another state — this time it's Missouri — according to well-placed party sources that have spoken to the Washington Examiner.
Trump's operation to secure real supporters rather than notional ones to send to the July's presidential nominating convention was caught napping and only activated in Missouri a week before delegate voting began. By the time the crucial delegate contests were over, the New York businessman found that the Texan tornado had left him in his dust.
It means, as with Cruz's superior operations in Arizona, Arkansas and several other states, that Missouri delegates who must vote for Trump on the first ballot are really Cruz supporters who will defect if there is a second ballot and the Cleveland convention is contested.
Trump won the Missouri primary by a mere 0.2 percentage points, which meant he took 37 of the 52 delegates available. But party operatives say many of the 37 are likely to be under Cruz control and will abandon the New York businessman if he doesn't win the nomination on the first ballot.
Missouri Republican insiders, and even local Cruz supporters, are mildly surprised that Trump didn't up his game. His top grassroots advisor there, Valinda Freed, is the sitting vice chairman of the Missouri Republican Party. She and other Trump supporters aren't novices or as unfamiliar with the delegate process as their counterparts in other states the campaign bungled.
"Most of the people who are bellyaching — they have caucused before," Bev Ehlen, a top Cruz organizer and a co-chairman of his Missouri campaign, said in a telephone interview. "There might be a lot of Cruz people in Cleveland. They might have to vote for Trump the first time, but that will be all there is."
Freed referred a request for comment to Trump campaign Midwest regional political director Stephanie Milligan. Milligan acknowledged the Examiner's request but at press time had not responded to questions relayed via email.
However, the Trump campaign over the weekend indicated unhappiness with the process in Missouri. Paul Manifort, the chief delegate strategist for the Trump campaign, said Sunday during an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press" that a formal protest over the results of delegate elections in Missouri would likely be filed.
Trump is leading the overall hunt for delegates with 744, followed by Cruz at 559 and Kasich at 144. To clinch, a candidate needs to accumulate a 1,237 majority. Trump is expected to pad his lead on Tuesday with a big win over his rivals in the New York primary, where 95 delegates are at stake.
Trump won the March 15 primary in Missouri, defeating Cruz by just 1,786 in a contest that was so close it went to a recount and wasn't called for weeks. Delegates were awarded five per congressional district and 12 for winning statewide. Trump, by winning five districts to Cruz's three, and narrowly capturing the statewide vote, netted 22 more delegates than the Texas senator.
But as in most states, GOP rules in Missouri call for delegates to the quadrennial presidential nominating convention to be elected by their fellow Republicans. The process begins with county caucuses, open to all registered Republicans. The nearly 2,000 Republicans who emerge from those elections proceed to congressional district elections, and the state GOP convention, where they vote for the final delegate slate.
This process began April 9, and is now in the district elections phase, with the state convention, in Branson, to come May 20-21.
As in other states where Cruz has dominated, his campaign laid a foundation for success in delegate elections months ago, assembling leadership teams and dispatching field volunteers to establish relationships with local grassroots Republicans. That work included recruiting and fielding delegate candidates, in many cases without any competition from Trump or Kasich.
Lately, Cruz's strategy has evolved to reach out to supporters of Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who suspended his presidential campaign on March 15, and integrate them into their teams.
Ehlen said she stays in regular touch with Rubio's Missouri supporters and that the response from them has been positive. Republican voters in Missouri who previously supported Ben Carson — who endorsed Trump soon after abandoning his own presidential bid — also have been receptive, Ehlen said.
"It worked out really well for us last week at the caucuses — better than I expected, because the Trump people did not come in with slates," Ehlen said. "With our numbers, it should be just maintenance from here on out; just making sure our voters are where there are supposed to be when they're supposed to be there, because our numbers are just that strong."
Republican operatives in Missouri expect Cruz to dominate district elections in six of the eight congressional districts, leading to a strong showing at the state convention in May. It likely didn't hurt Cruz that his campaign manager, Jeff Roe, is based in Missouri and knows how to navigate the Republican grassroots there.
Trump is expected to do well in district delegate elections in the St. Louis-area 1st district, and Southeast Missouri's 8th district, where his support in the March 15 primary was strongest. That's not as bad as some states, where Cruz swept all available delegates. But it's not considered good enough to carry Trump to the state convention with a chance to place loyalists on the final Cleveland slate.
"The Trump people, about eight days before the [county] caucuses — that's when they really launched their effort," Republican insider, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. "It's almost impossible to mount a mobilization for the caucuses on such short notice because it's complex and there are so many rules. They tried, but not surprisingly, it did not end well for them."
The Forbes Group is seeking volunteers who are fed up with the gross corruption of the GOP in both Wyoming and Colorado, to compile a database of those leaders who have betrayed the people by denying them their right to vote, as well as all delegates who believe they can vote for whoever they decide they want on their own. The database should include names, addresses, tel #, digital photographs, place of employment, and family members, etc. If you are outraged over this blatant defiance of our democracy, please form a team, compile the databases, and deliver this info to us via this email Note: you do not need to live in WY or CO to form your team, and we may be forming teams in other states. |
Because when Trump becomes POTUS, their political careers are over.
In about 15 hours Sleazy Ted will be mathematically eliminated. Luckily for me, I’ll be on a plane heading somewhere warm and be achy, so I won’t get to see the Great Cruznadian Breakdown of 2016. It’s gonna be ugly watching you folks.
The “Texan Tornado?” More like the Texan Touchhole.
All Cruz supporters should be stripped of citizenship, deprived of property, and deported by executive order. This should happen not later than 12:03 PM EST on Jan 20, 2017.
Odd how the “Texas Tornado” can’t win real elections.
It’s not realistic that the Trump team is not aware of how the delegate selection process works. Manafort is the best in the business. What this tells me is that Trump is either certain it won’t go to second ballot or he has something up his sleeve.
The Cruz people may be gloating today that they are so easily out maneuvering the “naive” Trump but don’t they find it a bit strange that this has been so easy? While the Cruz people are bragging about their superior “ground game” and patting themselves on the back, Trump is keeping his cards close to the vest. He may know some things that Cruz does not know.
I think it’s premature to conclude that Trump has been outfoxed. Will be interesting to see how the game plays out and see who has the last laugh.
Odd how trump hasn’t figured out how to win delegates.
Yep. And all climate change deniers should be put in jail.
I can't wait for the coming Trump authoritarianism, happily enforced by his supporters here on FreeRepublic.
There are Jonestown levels of psychotic, cultish, hero worship going on here.
There will be a Trump-hangover when you all wake up and realize how bat$h!+ crazy it has become in here, and your contribution to the insanity.
Won't be a fun day.
or he doesn’t really want to win. Not saying I fully believe this...but it IS a plausible option.
Manafort has been on the job for a week or two. You don't stamp out months of incompetence in that short of period of time. Lewandowski has been in way over his head.
A very Trump solution. Vindictive. Blames others for his own failings. And completely illegal.
Cruz will not be mathematically eliminated until Trump gets 1237 delegates.
All of Cruz’s efforts will be a waste of time, Trump will get the 1237 needed prior to the convention, and there won’t be a 2nd ballot.
If that's what the people want...after all, we do live in a Democracy and the peoples' voices count, right?
Well that’s just speculating. I assume the both of us do not have access to the Trump inner circle so neither of us truly know.
I do think some very interesting campaign books will get written once all is said and done.
See my profile.
You Trumpers are kind of insane, aren't you?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.