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Straightforward mathematical path to elimination for Cruz v Trump

Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson

Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

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To: DoughtyOne

Going to be a rough month for Cruz.

Check it out:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/


121 posted on 04/07/2016 5:30:57 PM PDT by lodi90 (Clear choice for Conservatives now: TRUMP or lose)
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To: spacejunkie2001

Nope... it looks like the hands are washing one another again.


122 posted on 04/07/2016 5:31:01 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)
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To: DoughtyOne
He’s out, but is acting as the water boy for the GOPe.

This seems despicable to me.

Me, too. He could be gracious, bow out, and concentrate on his future political career. Instead, he is doing everything he can to turn people against the clear favorite.

I used to think that I could support Cruz or Trump. Now, however, I'm seeing Cruz as just another establishment type. The establishment is killing this country.

123 posted on 04/07/2016 5:31:03 PM PDT by exDemMom (Current visual of the hole the US continues to dig itself into: http://www.usdebtclock.org/)
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To: semantic

That is my thinking. I think you are dead on. Trump has no chance in a third party unless he buys off libertarians ( easily bought with their goof ball as VP johnson) ) but Trump has renounced that. The key to reclaim this country and OUR party is to crush the oligarchy. They are so rancid and sickening. If we don’t we will never vote for another republican for even city counsel. They suck.


124 posted on 04/07/2016 5:31:35 PM PDT by WENDLE (I guess)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Actually, no, not at all the same thing.

Cruz wants folks to think that it’s just him fighting for himself, but he can’t guarantee this won’t get out of hand and turn into a GOPe engineered fiasco.

Ted is playing right into their hands, finally a person who can prevent Trump from changing this nation back to what it should be.

Not the same thing by a long shot. Folks don’t grasp this either.


125 posted on 04/07/2016 5:32:41 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: orchestra

I’m sorry that you dislike the prediction enough to feel the need to make a smart a$$ comment.

But I think you’ll see it proves to be pretty close to the end result.


126 posted on 04/07/2016 5:32:56 PM PDT by traderrob6
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To: fooman

Walker is oligarchy!! He will be crushed again!! He was run off by the conservatives and he will disappear politically in the near future. GP TRUMP!!


127 posted on 04/07/2016 5:33:49 PM PDT by WENDLE (I guess)
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To: JudyinCanada

As some one has rightly said nobody can steal something from you that you never had to begin with.

Trump has won some beauty contests, all that gets him is a binding pledge that the delegates will vote for him on the first ballot (or the first second, or third maybe). The delegates don’t have to be certified Trumpazoids, they don’t even have to like Trump, they only need to vote for him as bound to their pledges. That’s it.

The physical delegates are normally selected via a parallel process that the Trump people have up to now largely overlooked. But Cruz, playing a much deeper game than Trump, has not failed to do his homework, and has been getting his people on the state slates very effectively.

Trump is playing an amateur’s game; Cruz the professional.


128 posted on 04/07/2016 5:33:54 PM PDT by John Valentine ( Deep in the Heart of Texas)
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To: lodi90

Kasich has publicly stated- No deal with Trump.

Not a likely scenario...


129 posted on 04/07/2016 5:33:59 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: SoothingDave
What happens if there are 5 guys in the election and the top has 22% of the vote? Should he automatically get the nomination cause he has more than anyone else, but not a majority?

Great point. You can count on that happening from here on out if the leader isn't "chosen" by the establishment, they will simply nullify the voters.

The establishment is fomenting hatred against the front-runner in order to preserve the status quo.

Next election cycle it will be your guy getting blitz-kreiged.

130 posted on 04/07/2016 5:34:38 PM PDT by Mensius
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist

Trump doesn’t even know the rules.


131 posted on 04/07/2016 5:34:50 PM PDT by John Valentine ( Deep in the Heart of Texas)
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To: dynoman

trump could have done this...


132 posted on 04/07/2016 5:34:58 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: corbe

Corbe, Cruz is another warmed over Bush family acolyte.

He is tied to the hip with the GOPe.

Folks, you need to wake up and smell the roses.

Nobody has railed on Cruz like they have Trump.

Please think about that long and hard.

Have you seen even one pow-woe on the topic of denying Ted the nomination?

There have been a number of them to stop Trump.

Wake up folks!


133 posted on 04/07/2016 5:35:17 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist

he said in one of his recent rallies hes spent almost 40 million.


134 posted on 04/07/2016 5:35:48 PM PDT by Mechanicos (Attend a Trump Rally and get to "Punch a Commie for Mommy.")
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To: onona; corbe
Yours is the first post in this thread that mentions "stealing"

Not so. The notion of delegates being "stolen" was mentioned in post #2.

135 posted on 04/07/2016 5:35:54 PM PDT by Charles Henrickson (Social and constitutional conservative)
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To: Jim Robinson

I sent this to the Trump ping list, but here are my numbers and predictions as of right now:

Trump, based on my best guesses (which are pretty lame in districts I know nothing about) will end up with about 1150-1170 delegates. I did not include, nor do not have any polling data for, Indiana (57). Obviously if IN goes entirely for Trump, he is very, very close. Even so, he needs to step up his “splits” in some of the remaining proportional states-—OR, WA, NM, CA, and even NY. He doesn’t have to win every delegate by any means, but he has to come away with more than 5-6.

He has to get at least 140 in CA. In fact, McCain did better than this against Romney in 2008. Quite doable.

He has to nail NY. Polls there suggest he will.

So, my prediction? If Trump stumbles at all-—say, loses more in NY than he thinks reasonable or loses IN-—I predict that he will begin talks immediately with “little Marco” for a veep slot. And I think the discussions last week from the GOPe about having input/control over the veep position were SPECIFICALLY in regards to this possibility. It was a shot across the bow of the “Sweaty little man,” as Mark Steyn calls Rubes.


136 posted on 04/07/2016 5:35:58 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: WENDLE

Amazing that you trump people are hanging your hats on rubio!! the epitome of establishment!!

frickin unreal hypocrisy


137 posted on 04/07/2016 5:35:58 PM PDT by spacejunkie2001
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To: freespirit2012
-- has anyone ever come within 5 or 10 percent of reaching the delegate majority and not be given the nomination when it goes to a second ballot? --

Brokered Conventions Often Make A Winning GOP President.

Technically, I think the answer to your question is "no." But the historical examples are interesting.

138 posted on 04/07/2016 5:36:00 PM PDT by Cboldt
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To: fooman

But Walker would not have done it for Trump - he’s part of the #nevertrump establishment.


139 posted on 04/07/2016 5:36:28 PM PDT by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: BagCamAddict
The GOPe are making deals with Kasich and Rubio right now, to give their delegates to Cruz in exchange for positions in the cabinet.

I believe that's what's going on.

140 posted on 04/07/2016 5:36:50 PM PDT by FreeReign
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