So in that scenario, you don’t see Sanders getting 51% of the electoral votes?
Exactly which states that went for Obama are going to go for Trump (I) and a Republican (R)?
In my scenario, I think Trump will mostly pull enough votes so that Republicans lose Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado.
In fact, who knows, North Carolina and Indiana might flip back to Dem in 2016 also.
Closest states in ‘12 (under 5%): North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado; (under 7%) Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin.
All could be up for grabs in a serious three-way race. Don’t make the mistake of thinking the mean-girls attitude on FR extends to the general electorate. Cruz states could easily go Trump if the alternatives were Ryan and Bernie.