Closest states in ‘12 (under 5%): North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado; (under 7%) Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin.
All could be up for grabs in a serious three-way race. Don’t make the mistake of thinking the mean-girls attitude on FR extends to the general electorate. Cruz states could easily go Trump if the alternatives were Ryan and Bernie.
Given the lack of love of Hillary and Bernie voters for Trump, I don’t see very many Dems voting for Trump. If Trump loses due to maneuvers at a Convention, well here’s Bernie!
So picture this race in Ohio: Sanders gets 51%, Cruz or Ryan gets 32%, Trump gets 16%. Result, Sanders gets the electoral votes.
I can’t believe that anyone thinks Trump running as an independent would do anything besides cause the Republicans to lose. When Nader ran, the Dems lost. When Perot ran, Bush lost.
In 1912, Teddy Roosevelt ran as 3rd party and Wilson won 40 states (435 electoral votes) with only 41% of the popular vote.