Posted on 03/17/2016 5:38:01 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans
Emerson College Poll New York – Donald Trump 64%, Ted Cruz 12%, John Kasich 1%…
Posted on March 17, 2016 by sundance
Emerson College releases a poll today of New York voters (pdf article here). As a generally intelligent person might expect, candidate Donald Trump crushes second place Ted Cruz by 52 points. Trump earns 64% support, Cruz 12%, Kasich barely 1%.
If anything ever happens to Trump there he is suspect number one. The snake handler. Poor Pat and Stu.
The interesting things is this... With Rubio still in the race, the New York polls had Trump at 45%, Kasich at 18% and Rubio 18% and Cruz at 11%. And that was end of feb to early March poll. So now Kasich is at 1, Cruz is unchanged, and Trump is in the 60s. So who picked up the Rubio votes there? And kasich a went where?? Not to Cruz.
Now that’s what I call a Trump ceiling!
LOVE your VP pick. I doubt it will happen, but it would be awesome. The father would make an excellent VP too or Sec of Defense.
I learned long ago when a presidential candidate drops out their supporters go every which way than the way most people expect. It is always unpredictable.
Didn't Cruz seek his endorsement?
However, they do much of the time as you say go with the perceived winner.
They keep supplying an extremely optimistic mathematical path for Cruz, this will make his head explode.
But Cruz is surging!!!!
New York is only winner take all if you get over 50%, which Trump will do :)
Trump now has 673 of the needed 1237
Trump is pretty much guaranteed to win these winner take all states
:
Arizona AZ 58
Delaware DE 16
New Jersey NJ 51
total 125 grand total 798
But it gets better, because he will win big enough in the following winner take most states to get all the delegates too!
California CA 172
Penn PA 71
Maryland MA 38
total 281 grand total 1079
But it gets EVEN better because he will also make NY winner take all by getting more than 50%
New York NY 95
Grand total 1174 of the needed 1237
which means he only needs to pick up 63 more from some combo of the following states:
Wisconsin WI 42
Indiana IN 57
Montana MO 27
South Dakota SD 29
Nebraska NB 36
Utah UT 40
Conn CO 28
Rhode Island RH 19
West Virgina WV 34
Oregon OR 28
Washington WA 44
New Mexico NM 24
total 408
For those tracking the 538 road to the nomination with the loss in OH Trump is tracking slightly behind goal. 28 delegates to be exact.
However, he is only projected to need 58 from New York.
Meaning, he can track on the number up to NY, win big, and get back on track, or ahead.
Key states to watch are AZ and UT next week, WI, and then NY. AZ is a must win for everyone.
Coming out of NY Trump will likely be the only candidate remaining with a pure mathematical possibility to reach 1237.
Cruz can only cede another 235 delegates to anyone between now and June. Those could all be gone by APR 16. NJ doesn’t vote until June. So, realistically Cruz can only give up 184. Toss in a relatively conservative number, say 80 for NY, and Cruz can only cede 104 delegates. If he loses AZ, that leaves him needing to literally sweep the board everywhere else. That’s why AZ is so key. UT could matter, it is proportional with a 50 pct threshold to WTA. Rubio was leading there by slim margins. Cruz needs to get to 50 in UT, anything less is a step towards mathematical elimination.
I say all this because I hope people are concerned about winning, not with losing well enough to steal a win from someone else. Win with aplomb, and lose with grace.
I always laugh when you act like you’re doing calculations somewhere and have things all figured out.
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The way I always laugh when there’s an article about how Trump appeals to the less educated and some see that as an opportunity to start citing how many and what kind of degrees they have.
Maybe I find it humorous because I have a high school diploma and that’s it? I dunno, I just find it to be self promoting and somewhat funny but that’s just me - a Trump voter.
Yes, it will vary state to state. But it’s clear in New York where they are going. I wasn’t suggesting all Rubio votes would have gone to Trump everywhere. And then there’s the big mo factor as well, indeed
Winner take most in new York. He might take all.
” New York is winner take all with 95 delegates, voting in April.”
Oh my. GO TRUMP GO
CA is also by congressional district.
That’s Trump’s state. He should win, and he should do well with the other Eastern states.
This poll should cause everyone to unite behind trump. This and his lead in California says his support crosses all economic and social strata. Not gaining approval from an historically unsuccessful, political elite group is no legitimate reason to deny a candidate by means of extraordinary political machinations.
nice breakdown.
He will take Indiana. Even my democrat neighbors. ( who can chose an R ballot ) are saying. BUILD THE WALL!
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