[NYRepublican72]

I’m thinking Ted will definitely demand a recount.

I don't know if you ask for a recount over 12 statewide delegates, unless some of these CDs are close as well. There are a few right now, but Cruz would also put CD4 at risk by asking for a recount.

[TontoKowalski]

Surely there is some margin where a recount is required by the Secretary of State (or Election Commissioner or whoever oversees elections). I would think that a margin that small would start an automatic recount.

Nate Silver made a point about the "inevitability of a contested convention." He says he doesn't see it. For example, it looks like Trump will win MO by less than 2000 votes, and yet he'll probably walk off with around 42 of 52 delegates. I think my numbers are right, but it's a big margin in comparison to the vote total. Same in IL, where Trump should take well over half.