The GOP: Five Seats at the Final Table

There are five seats left at the Republican final table, with a total of 100 chips between them. Based on combining the results from Iowa and New Hampshire, and apportioning the chips of the dropouts according to the stated preferences of voters in the last Selzer poll, the remaining players sit down at the table with the following stakes:

Trump 33, Cruz 26, Rubio 25, Kasich and Bush with 8 apiece. The two governors are soon to be departed, and similarly dividing their chips between the three leaders would yield the following result: Trump 35, Rubio 35, Cruz 30. If Cruz were to drop out it would be Rubio 58, Trump 42. If Rubio drops out it would be Cruz 54, Trump 46.

For Republicans, then, the safe play would seem to be Rubio over Cruz. But there's a hitch. The easiest way for the Republicans to win in November is by winning the votes of Midwest working class whites who refused to vote for Romney. This article demonstrates how that's done. If you want to prove it to yourself, click on Bycoffe and Wasserman's nifty electoral college gadget at 538.com. This year these people are Trump voters, and their big issue is immigration. They won't vote for Rubio in the general because of his Gang of Eight bill. They won't vote for Hillary, just as they didn't vote for Obama. But if they stay at home they can deny the Republican a victory. There are enough of them who would vote for Cruz to win the election.

Ted Cruz isn't too extreme for the Republican electorate. On immigration, he's barely extreme enough. Against a strong Democrat, like Barack Obama or Bill Clinton, this could be a problem.

>>Silly article, suggesting Rubio has cemented his position as the leading establishment candidate, as though New Hampshire never happened.<<

So, Kasich is now going to suddenly start showing strong in the next primaries? Or Bush? That’s probably not going to happen, except for Bush in Florida.

New Hampshire was a fluke, with Independents having a strong influence on the outcome. It will prove to be Kasich’s last stand.

The solution is simple: Trump/Cruz.

I believe that Bush and Kasich will stay in for a while - at least until their home state’s primary. They’ll earn a few delegates in the meantime, but all along the way Trump will be accumulating more and more delegates. So will Cruz, just not as many, and so will Robotio (though far less than the other 2). Thus, once Bush and Kasich leave, the effect won’t be as large as this article states...so Trump should win, based on recent numbers.

Trump/Cruz works on many levels for me. While my conservative side says “CRUZ!” because he is this generation’s Reagan, I have to fall back on Bill Buckley’s advice to back the most conservative candidate who will win the general election. This is not Cruz’ time - he’s too young, and not enough people know who he really is. His image for most of the public is that which his enemies in the media and DC (which is to say, most of the people in both categories) have crafted for him, so as to make him irrelevant. He needs more experience AND more public exposure - both of which can be accomplished by serving as VP to Trump. Given Trump’s sound management practice of giving trusted and able subordinates the job of the detail work, Cruz will end up picking all federal judges and having a LARGE influence on who the AG will be.

Trump will win a lot of the Reagan Democrats, and people like me who are SICK TO DEATH of the status quo (which is to say, sick to death of the people who put it in place and maintain it, to America’s detriment), and who WANT a 2-legged wrecking ball to come to the District of Criminals. Cruz will keep the conservatives on board, both for his inevitable influence within a Trump Administration and the promise of a winnable Cruz campaign in 2024. That would be, to me, the ideal - 16 years of turning DC on its fat, corrupt, anti-American arse, and restoring both the rule of law and our economic and military strength.

Trump/Cruz 2016!

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